WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA raised typhoon warning signals on the northern provinces of Luzon.


Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "JUAN" (MEGI)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 16 October 2010 Typhoon "JUAN" has maintained its strength as it moves in a westward direction towards Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 770 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.5°N, 129.7°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 140 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 170 kph
Movement: West at 24 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday evening:
260 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Monday evening:
160 km West Southwest of Laoag City
Tuesday evening:
700 km West of Laoag City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Isabela None None


Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Residents in coastal areas under signal # 1 are alerted of possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.

[supercane]

Latest sat fix bulletins out. Dvorak CI up to T6.0 from KNES.
TXPN23 KNES 161515
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 16/1430Z
C. 18.5N
D. 129.5E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 6.0 BASED ON LG EYE WITH CMG RING EMBEDDED IN W.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
16/1020Z 18.3N 130.6E SSMIS
16/1048Z 18.3N 130.4E SSMIS
...LIDDICK
=

038
TCNA20 RJTD 161500
CCAA 16150 47644 MEGI(1013) 17184 11296 113/4 2//// 92813=

[dexterlabio]

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 18.4N 129.6E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 18.4N 124.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 181200UTC 17.1N 119.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 191200UTC 15.8N 115.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =



WTPH RPLL 161200
TTT TYPHOON WARNING 04
AT 1200 16 OCTOBER TYPHOON (MEGI) (1013) WAS LOCATED BASED ON
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE
ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER
SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER
RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTO-
PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO
FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE
THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS
FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 171200 ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR NORTH
ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AT 181200 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH
ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 191200 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO
NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA
PD

ASCAT missed center of Megi.

[KWT]

Looking like a real potent system now, clearly in a strengthening phase.

Still looks like it maybe a close call with regards to Luzon...I think the southern side will indeed hit but the eye may just stay to the north but any slight WSW motion is going to take the system over N.Luzon.

Wobble watch starts soon guys!

[P.K.]

Also a Severe Typhoon from the HKO as well now at 90kts.

[KWT]

I see no reason why the 130-140kts 1 mins sustained range isn't possible before landfall with this one, indeed systems heading towards land at a slight WSW motion tend to be the ones that strengthen right upto landfall...which obviously isn't a good thing.

[Chacor]

JTWC continues with a 135 kt landfall forecast.
T6.0 is 115 kt on the U.S. Dvorak scale; if the JMA were to consider it (which they won't), it'd be 93 kt on theirs.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Watching this closely from my hotel in Manila. Flight up north tomorrow around 7am. Megi looking formidable. Have mobile internet so hope to post more updates tomorrow when on the road.

[Infdidoll]

Just talked to my husband who is there, right now. They evacuated a bunch of guys out of where they've been staying. He said himself and about 50 other guys will be staying behind to weather out the storm.They're more in southern Luzon, though, so here's hoping they won't be affected quite as much...unless it hits further south. Then he is going to have some tales to tell.

[supercane]

Chacor, JMA actually went there. Latest Dvorak T6.0 from RJTD. Maybe JMA will increase to 85kt next advisory? Also appears that storm is still gaining latitude based on sat fix.
611
TCNA21 RJTD 161800
CCAA 16180 47644 MEGI(1013) 17187 11288 11334 260// 92914=

Still somewhat restricted outflow to west, but nice ring of convection around clear eye on IR.


Last TS-strength wind probs from NWS/JTWC:

[supercane]

PGTW (JTWC) Dvorak up to T6.5, which would correspond to 127kt.

TPPN11 PGTW 161812
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 16/1730Z
C. 18.7N
D. 128.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. A 13NM SMALL EYE IS
SURROUNDED BY A 39NM WHITE RING YIELDING AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.0.
ADDED .5 FOR A CMG SURROUNDING RING EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A DT
OF 6.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1525Z 18.6N 129.3E TRMM
KIENZLE

UW-CIMSS Dvorak trend:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2010 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 18:41:59 N Lon : 128:48:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 918.3mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.0 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -20.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[phwxenthusiast]

we'll likely see an upgrade into a Cat 4 come 18z... this is nail biting....

[P.K.]

Up to 90kts in the 18Z advisory.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 18.7N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 18.1N 123.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 181800UTC 16.6N 118.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 191800UTC 15.8N 114.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[supercane]

JMA up to 90kt at 18Z.




Recon just departing from Guam.

[KWT]

Looking very impressive right now, the western side doesn't look quite as good as it could do but no doubt its a powerful system right now.

Good to see recon is flying into the system, should get some good information, esp given the eye is real tight at the moment...

I still think this may just go north of Luzon though the northern parts will probably still have pretty major effects I'd have thought even if the eye were to stay offshore...

[supercane]

JMA 5-day out, unchanged early with hit in Cagayan, Luzon but then shows northerly drift late.
WTPQ50 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 18.7N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 18.1N 123.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 181800UTC 16.6N 118.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 191800UTC 15.8N 114.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 201800UTC 16.4N 114.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 211800UTC 17.4N 114.2E 300NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =




WTKO20 RKSL 161800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161800UTC 18.7N 128.8E
MOVEMENT WNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 171800UTC 18.3N 123.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
48HR
POSITION 181800UTC 17.6N 119.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 191800UTC 17.5N 114.6E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[P.K.]

CMA now just short of Super Typhoon status.

WTPQ20 BABJ 161800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC
00HR 18.7N 128.8E 945HPA 48M/S
30KTS 250KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 20KM/H
P+24HR 19.2N 124.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 18.4N 120.9E 965HPA 35M/S
P+72HR 17.5N 116.8E 950HPA 42M/S
P+96HR 17.4N 113.8E 945HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.5N 111.2E 935HPA 48M/S=

[KatDaddy]

13NM small eye for a large typhoon. No doubt a super typhoon.

[supercane]

JTWC 21Z in; up to 125kt:

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.7N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.5N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.0N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.1N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 128.2E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161525Z TRMM 85H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED 13 NM EYE WITH
TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TY MEGI HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE FILLING OF AN INDUCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TY MEGI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON AND INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD IN HIGHLY FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BY
18/06Z AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD SOUTHERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT (TO INCLUDE GFDN AND NOGAPS). WBAR REMAINS AN OUTLIER,
TRACKING THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN, BUT HAS BEEN TRENDING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PAST FIVE MODEL RUNS. THIS FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR
WBAR, BUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//