WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[StormingB81]

Looking at JTWC's track it is stays true and it has 2 landfalls as a major typhoon I can bet right now this storm will be retired after this year...SCary.....Hope the best for everyone in the path!

[Chacor]

JTWC has Megi weakening to 125 kts (still a very intense storm) from a peak of 135 kt before landfall.

[KWT]

Quite interesting to see this system is now at 100kts, pretty impressive looking system though still no real eye present...but then again systems in high heat content set-ups often don't pop eyes till 100-110kts anyway.

[Macrocane]

An eye has appeared on the last few frames though it appears as a warm spot and is not clear yet.

[dexterlabio]

TPPN11 PGTW 161217

A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)

B. 16/1130Z

C. 18.4N

D. 130.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO CLOUD FILLED EYE/ANMTN. 15NM BLACK EYE WITH
WHITE RING YIELDS A 6.0 MINUS .5 EYE ADJ FOR CMG SURR RING
YIELDS A DT OF A 5.5. MET AND PT YILED A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1009Z 18.2N 130.6E AMSU
16/1020Z 18.1N 130.6E SSMS
16/1048Z 18.3N 130.4E SSMS


GATES

Lates satpic from PAGASA.

[oaba09]

definitely moving westwards now...

[oaba09]

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°20'(18.3°)
E130°20'(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE370km(200NM)
SW300km(160NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

The eye wall is defiantly very defined now...

[Chacor]

JMA up to 80 knots. Peak forecast 85 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 18.3N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 18.6N 125.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 181200UTC 17.1N 119.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 191200UTC 15.8N 115.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[P.K.]

Also upgraded to a Severe Typhoon by the CMA at 42m/s. Peak forecast remains at 50m/s from them.

WTPQ20 BABJ 161200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC
00HR 18.4N 130.2E 955HPA 42M/S
30KTS 250KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR WNW 22KM/H
P+24HR 18.9N 126.1E 940HPA 50M/S
P+48HR 17.9N 121.7E 965HPA 38M/S
P+72HR 17.2N 118.4E 950HPA 42M/S
P+96HR 17.2N 115.2E 945HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.5N 113.0E 935HPA 48M/S=

[KWT]

Eye is becoming much better defined now isn't it, you can clearly make out the small eye on the microwave, probably will strengthen at a quick rate from now on...

[dexterlabio]

I really don't know if it's a wobble or what but I see west movement for the last 3 hours, do you guys think there's a chance of a wsw movement earlier than forecast?

[dexterlabio]

The eye wall is defiantly very defined now...

I think we can have a glimpse of a clear eye very soon.

[oaba09]

I really don't know if it's a wobble or what but I see west movement for the last 3 hours, do you guys think there's a chance of a wsw movement earlier than forecast?

It's currently moving west based on the JMA advisory...

As for a WSW movement, we'll just have to wait and see....The STR seems to be building up now....

[ejeraldmc]

I can see a pinhole eye based from satellite images.

[cycloneye]

Infared image shows the small eye.

[Macrocane]

Small eyes usually intensify rapidly, Megi is becoming a classic WPAC intense typhoon.

[ejeraldmc]

JMA says it started moving slightly WSW.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 1500z Warning=105 kts

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 130.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.3N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.8N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.7N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 129.6E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MEGI HAS YET TO DEVELOP A WELL-
DEFINED EYE DESPITE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A DATA-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) OF 5.5 FROM PGTW. A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE CAN BE EVIDENCED IN CERTAIN INFRARED ENHANCEMENTS,
WHICH HAS PROVIDED HIGH POSITION CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA HAS LIKELY STALLED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION BY LIMITING EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AHEAD OF A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS INTO
A TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CELL LOCATED NEAR 17N 152E. THE TRACK
HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEST ASIA CONFIRM A BUILDING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN
RESPONSE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS HINTING AT ANOTHER
PASSING TROUGH.
B. MEGI IS STILL SLATED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE AND GLANCE LUZON
SHORTLY AFTER 18/00Z AROUND SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH, ASSUMING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FILLS. NOGAPS AND WBAR HAVE WALKED
TOWARDS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST OVER THE
PAST 2 RUNS. NEARLY ALL THE TRACKERS INDICATE THE STEERING RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AND TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LUZON. IF IT TRACKS SOUTH OF TRACK, AS THE
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SUGGEST, THEN MORE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR.
REGARDLESS, REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
C. AS STATED IN PARA 3.A. THE TRACK HAS SLOWED BEYOND TAU
72. NEARLY ALL THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE INDICATING A SLOW DOWN AROUND
THIS TIME, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH.//
NNNN