WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[KWT]

Still looks like quite alot if disagreements, esp given the fact the system is getting rather close now to the Phillippines...nogaps still wants to take this northwards...

[oaba09]

Still looks like quite alot if disagreements, esp given the fact the system is getting rather close now to the Phillippines...nogaps still wants to take this northwards...

Based on the recent movements, I don't think the NGPS track is gonna happen...

[supercane]

Latest Dvoraks are T5.0 from both PGTW (JTWC) and RJTD (JMA):
292
TCNA21 RJTD 160000
CCAA 16000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17172 11330 12434 250// 92914=

TPPN11 PGTW 160019
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/2330Z
C. 17.6N
D. 132.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CNVCTN WRAPS 1.35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL WITH A BF TO YIELD A DT OF
5.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1959Z 17.1N 133.7E SSMI
15/2017Z 16.9N 133.8E SSMS
KIENZLE

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 17.2N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 18.8N 128.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 180000UTC 18.2N 123.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 190000UTC 17.2N 118.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[GCANE]

Heating up

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good morning all, well almost 1100 but still, 1000 in the PI, there! The N periphery of the system really blew up last night.

[StormingB81]

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/temp2t.png


This is interesting...still some models want to bring it to the North

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.5N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.8N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.5N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 132.3E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//

[Typhoon10]

Good morning all, well almost 1100 but still, 1000 in the PI, there! The N periphery of the system really blew up last night.

Moshi Moshi Rob! Hey, sometimes I am still trying to come to terms with some of the jargon and slang you experts use. But from what I can see, is it not going to be as strong as we thought? Also, unsure whether it will hit top of Phil or skirt just above? But most of the tracks show it going at least 400km south of us here in HK, so no major impact

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

Looking at the maps I don't see it pulling to the north HOWEVER,,,,has there ever been this much disagreeance after so much time has passed?

[supercane]

First VDM of the day out; peak flight-level (700 mb) wind 99kt, SFMR wind 73kt, pressure 967 mb, but this is on NW-SE leg.

989
URPA12 PGUA 160151

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/01:36:20Z
B. 17 deg 29 min N
132 deg 35 min E
C. 700 mb 2849 m
D. 73 kt
E. 212 deg 7 nm
F. 293 deg 69 kt
G. 211 deg 7 nm
H. 967 mb
I. 10 C / 3053 m
J. 22 C / 3049 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0530W MEGI OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 99 KT E QUAD 01:41:10Z
;

Most recent microwave:

[Typhoon10]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.all.2010101512.tc_wpac_ll.single.gif

Looking at the maps I don't see it pulling to the north HOWEVER,,,,has there ever been this much disagreeance after so much time has passed?

Which models are the red and pink? They show a significant turn to the north? Both very close to HK?

[supercane]

Key is on lower right corner of map. Red=GFS, pink=CMC.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Moshi Moshi!

Ya it may not be as strong as far N as HK, but the intensity still looks pretty bad for NE LUZON. Possible super typhoon at landfall. I really do hope it does skirt the NE Coast, but I don't think so.

[zeekat]

Still looks like quite alot if disagreements, esp given the fact the system is getting rather close now to the Phillippines...nogaps still wants to take this northwards...

frankly though, how i still wish that nogaps will prove correct this time, despite the odds

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey everyone, I'm not sure if anyone posted this but right off JTWC prog reasoning for those of you in fear of the the NGPS.


WHILE NOGAPS HAS BEEN HIGHLY ERRATIC OVER THE
PAST 5 RUNS AND NOW INDICATES A RE-CURVE TRACK TOWARD OKINAWA. THE
CURRENT NOGAPS TRACK MAKES LITTLE SENSE AS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
INTO A STRONG, BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST ASIA
(INTO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW) AND ALSO TRACKS THE SYSTEM
THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS
DISCOUNTED

[RobWESTPACWX]

That's a bold move for JTWC to call out FNMOC like that. Not really there fault, its the model, but there basically saying that their model that the Navy funds is junk.

[StormingB81]

Wonder what JTWC would say if there track was right..how would they feel after posting that...

[RobWESTPACWX]

LOL, someone would be fired, there usually cautious when it comes to Okinawa, all the bases there and you haft to sortie ships and planes and non-such.

[supercane]

Don't see anything gutsy about it, Rob. The excerpt from the prognostic discussion was a mere statement of fact. The poor performance of NOGAPS is well known, to the point that NHC wrote in their 2009 verification that "For the second year in a row, NGPI (my parenthesis and bolding, interpolated NOGAPS) and EGRI were the poorer performing major dynamical models."

There is actually a pretty good level of consensus at least for the next 72hrs, as shown by the ITOP ensemble map I posted a page or two ago, repeated for convenience.

The wind.mit.edu track map also shows good agreement if you take out NOGAPS and the NOGAPS-condition-derived GFDN.

Interesting wind profile from recon, with SFMR winds stronger than flight-level on the west and SFMR winds weaker than flight-level to the east of the center.