WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[StormingB81]

With the new JMA track are the biting on the NOGAPS track headed north?

[Typhoon10]

TH and all,

Heaven forbid that it comes very close or even hits HK as a Cat3 TY, how bad would it be? I live in one of the most densley populated areas in HK on the top, 18th floor of a 44 year old building surrounded by even taller buildings! We have already had waterleaks from the rain this year! We have bamboo scaffolding on our building and ones around us?

[RobWESTPACWX]

TH and all,

Heaven forbid that it comes very close or even hits HK as a Cat3 TY, how bad would it be? I live in one of the most densley populated areas in HK on the top, 18th floor of a 44 year old building surrounded by even taller buildings! We have already had waterleaks from the rain this year! We have bamboo scaffolding on our building and ones around us?

I noticed that bamboo scaffolding on some buildings in HK, that stuff scares me on a bright sunny day! Right though T10 looks like wherever it goes in SE china it will be a Typhoon when making landfall, that's all I would say at this point.

[supercane]

With the new JMA track are the biting on the NOGAPS track headed north?

Since JMA does not issue prognostic reasonings, who knows? (The 2010 Typhoon Committee manual makes mention of the RSMC issuing one, but I can't find the listed WMO header anywhere.) It would be folly to base a northward trend on NOGAPS given its relatively poorer performance compared to other models.

BTW, JMA global model output for 00Z showing the same thing everyone else is in terms of WNW now, then W, then WSW in the setting of significant strengthening:

Code: Select all

408
FXPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME STS 1013 MEGI (1013)
PSTN 150000UTC 14.5N 137.4E
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  60KT
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
TIME    PSTN       PRES    MXWD
                 (CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 14.9N 136.3E -004HPA +006KT
T=12 15.9N 135.2E -008HPA +016KT
T=18 16.6N 133.9E -015HPA +021KT
T=24 17.2N 132.7E -018HPA +028KT
T=30 17.9N 131.4E -024HPA +035KT
T=36 18.2N 130.1E -027HPA +038KT
T=42 18.5N 128.8E -034HPA +043KT
T=48 18.6N 127.6E -032HPA +037KT
T=54 18.6N 126.6E -037HPA +038KT
T=60 18.4N 125.5E -035HPA +044KT
T=66 18.2N 124.4E -042HPA +047KT
T=72 18.0N 123.5E -041HPA +042KT
T=78 17.9N 122.5E -032HPA +033KT
T=84 17.7N 121.3E -012HPA +008KT=

[StormingB81]

Im with about everyone. I don't see it turning to the North but I have seen stranger things to know keep a watch and be ready just i ncase

[Chacor]

The JMA did indeed use to issue short one-sentence prognostics, if they could be called that. I haven't seen one in a few years.

Storming, the JMA does not change its forecast points beyond 24h on intermediate bulletins (3, 9, 15, 21z), so there's been no change since the 00z full bulletin.

[StormingB81]

Well I was just looking on how there's is a little bit north of everone elses

[Typhoon Hunter]

Much better Video today, you can tell I'm more awake. Anyhow thanks again Storm2k for letting me share these here, let me know if you guys agree or disagree with my fcst. (unofficial)

You sound much chirpier today Rob, you were a bit croaky the other night!

TH and all,

Heaven forbid that it comes very close or even hits HK as a Cat3 TY, how bad would it be? I live in one of the most densley populated areas in HK on the top, 18th floor of a 44 year old building surrounded by even taller buildings! We have already had waterleaks from the rain this year! We have bamboo scaffolding on our building and ones around us?

It would be bad. Hong Kong hasn't been hit by a strong typhoon directly for many many years. The last signal 10 here was considered quite a weak one.

Expect lots of high rise windows to be blown out, scaffolding and neon signs flying about and considerable flooding in low lying areas like Sheung Wan / Kennedy town. As a keen hiker, it would no doubt trigger lots of landslides and trash lots of the country parks infrastructure.

It's still a long time to go before we'll know where it heads once in SCS.

The JMA did indeed use to issue short one-sentence prognostics, if they could be called that. I haven't seen one in a few years.

Storming, the JMA does not change its forecast points beyond 24h on intermediate bulletins (3, 9, 15, 21z), so there's been no change since the 00z full bulletin.

Yeah, I used to get them in my Inbox but they stopped. They were pretty basic though and gave very little information.

[Chacor]

viewtopic.php?p=1484904#p1484904

Example of a past JMA prognostic reasoning (this for 2006's STS, subsequently TY, Cimaron)

[phwxenthusiast]

NOGAPS has been inconsistent from the start anyway... just look at the 00z run, now it trended south, bringing Megi close to a landfall in N. Luzon--which is the most plausible scenario right now in my opinion...

[supercane]

JMA to upgrade to typhoon. 06Z ICAO (aviation) advisory:
FKPQ30 RJTD 150600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20101015/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MEGI
NR: 9
PSN: N1455 E13635
MOV: WNW 08KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 15/1200Z N1535 E13525
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 15/1800Z N1600 E13450
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 16/0000Z N1725 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 16/0600Z N1725 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 75KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20101015/1200Z =



Steady T numbers with Dvorak from PGTW (JTWC) at T5.0 and from RJTD (JMA) at 4.0
465
TCNA21 RJTD 150600
CCAA 15060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17149 11366 12344 240// 93009=

TPPN11 PGTW 150629
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/0530Z
C. 14.8N
D. 136.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 32A/PBO CDO/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS AT
DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A 4.5. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 14.9N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 17.4N 132.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 170600UTC 18.5N 128.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 180600UTC 18.6N 123.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[StormingB81]

NOGAPS now on point with the JMA forecast...looks like all are in agreeance now

[phwxenthusiast]

PAGASA issuing hourly updates on Twitter...
http://twitter.com/dost_pagasa

so i guess, that's what they meant by hourly coverage, acceptable...

btw, i know it's still a long way off but ECMWF (00z) showing 943mb just southeast of Hainan by Friday...

[supercane]

What do the hourly updates say this far out?

And JMA 5-day looks like an extension of the previous forecast:
WTPQ50 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 14.9N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 17.4N 132.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 170600UTC 18.5N 128.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 180600UTC 18.6N 123.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 190600UTC 19.0N 122.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
120HF 200600UTC 19.4N 120.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY =

[phwxenthusiast]

:uarrow: What do the hourly updates say this far out?

just lat longs, intensity and track... as for the latter, pretty much in line with the other agencies, nothing unusual... Cagayan-Isabela area by Monday...

they are also answering some queries from other twitter users...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Ouch, that slow down in track speed by JMA off northern Luzon is not good flooding wise. And the town of Aparri will be seriously wind blasted if that comes off.

00z ECMWF also showing a bad scene for Hainan.

[ejeraldmc]

PAGASA Twitter update just minutes ago

The severe tropical storm (MEGI)has intensified into a typhoon with maximum winds of 120 kph and gust of 150 kph. This weather disturbance is expected to enter the PAR tonight. However, with its current position and intensity, still no direct effect to any part of the country.

[RobWESTPACWX]

ya moving just N like that would be really bad since it wouldnt weaken as much along the W coast

[keysha_gurl]

HI GUYS!!

I am set to leave Manila on Wednesday evening for Hong Kong on a 5 day vacation with my boyfriend. My boyfriend is coming from the states and has a stop over in Narita, Tokyo and should be there by wednesday morning. I am aware that there is a typhoon brewing and it could possible affect travel plans. I have 2 sets of questions now that i will greatly appreciate if someone could help me with.

1. Will I still be able to leave for HK on wednesday evening? and arrive safely in HK with not much weather disturbance? will the typhoon hit HK?
2. Will my boyfriend be able to take his connecting flight from tokyo to HK with no delays due to severe weather?

I hope someone could help me out. I would really truly appreciate any enlightenment from you wise people.

Thank you and looking forward to your replies!