WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[RobWESTPACWX]

You know NGPS has been off since the start, maybe FNMOC needs to do a Cold Boot on it (start it again from scratch) Either way I still think the turn N is unlikely, I think most of the people here can agree.

But as you said storming you still have this weekend, could turn N towards JP. But that just seems so unlikely. JT really must be confident it is not going to do that either since they are going to keep you in the safe zone.

[oaba09]

^Yup....Most models still predict a westerm path for this system...I think NGPS is the only one predicting a northwards path...

Can anyone give me a link showing the subtropical ridge?

Thanks!

[Chacor]

Potentially a >130 kt landfall is not nice.

[RobWESTPACWX]

^Yup....Most models still predict a westerm path for this system...I think NGPS is the only one predicting a northwards path...

Can anyone give me a link showing the subtropical ridge?

Thanks!

Below is a chart from KMA at 500mb, showing a couple of Highs stamped Near Taiwan, Cmiss streamlines are down at the moment that would show it better but if anyone else has a streamline to show that would be great!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Surface chart shows it too, showing the ridging of high pressure from the the West Pac High to the W

[supercane]

Can anyone give me a link showing the subtropical ridge?

200-mb streamlines at 21Z from CIMSS

[oaba09]

^Thanks guys!!!

[supercane]

Latest KNES Dvorak all the way up to 5.0 as well.

TXPN23 KNES 150304
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/0230Z
C. 14.3N
D. 137.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...MEGI HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CDO THAT IS NEARLY OVER 2
DEGREES WIDE AND RECENT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS AN EYE
MAYBE FORMING IN VIS/EIR...THOUGH IT HAS BEEN SEEN FOR AWHILE NOW IN THE
MICROWAVE SUITE. CONSIDERING THE CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION USING
EMBEDDED CENTER 90 NMI WITHIN BLACK YIELDS DT OF 5.0. MET IS 4.0. PT IS
4.5 FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
14/2112Z 13.8N 137.8E WINDSAT
14/2140Z 13.9N 137.6E SSMIS
...GALLINA
=

[Typhoon Hunter]

I spy with my little eye...an eye. On latest CWB visible sat image:
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=RGB

[cycloneye]

Here is the Prognostic reasoning from JTWC 00 UTC Warning 9.

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY,
AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES, AND MICROWAVE SOUNDINGS ALL CONFIRM SUBSTANTIAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE RATE OF
DEEPENING HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS WITH
INFRARED READINGS OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 80 CELSIUS. A 142112Z 37GHZ SSMI-S
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE. CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BOLSTERED BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS FROM VARIOUS POINTS
WITHIN THE STORM AS WELL AS A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE DEVELOPED. SOME SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TUTT CELL REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE VISAYAS, BUT IN THE NEAR TERM
MEGI�S TRACK EXISTS IN A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
B. TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR
ALONG THE 130TH MERIDIAN THAT IS TEMPORARILY INDUCING SOME POLEWARD
TRAJECTORY IN THE TRACK BUT THAT WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO FILL AS A
MAJOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA
PASSES DOWNSTREAM, ALLOWING THE STR RE-BUILD. THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
NORTHERN LUZON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THAT
SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48, THEN NOGAPS AND GFDN SUSTAIN THE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK, POINTING THE STORM AT TAIWAN, WHILE ECMWF, EGRR,
AND THE JTWC CONSENSUS MODEL STEER THE STORM WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
LUZON. BECAUSE THE GFDN TRACKER IS NESTED IN NOGAPS, THE OPERATIVE
ASSUMPTION IS THAT NOGAPS IS CAUSING THE GFDN SOLUTION TO SHIFT
POLEWARD. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION DUE TO A LACK OF MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD BE
NECESSARY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO DRAW THE STORM POLEWARD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON
AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. THE SYTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH ENERGY TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AT TYPHOON STRENGTH WITH A SLIGHT POLEWARD DEFLECTION.//

[oaba09]

a possible super typhoon at landfall......that's just crazy scary...

[cycloneye]

Impressive looking Typhoon, but at the same time very dangerous image of the eye appearing.

[RobWESTPACWX]

a possible super typhoon at landfall......that's just crazy scary...

Agreed, very possible at this time too.

[Typhoon10]

a possible super typhoon at landfall......that's just crazy scary...

It will be interesting to see where it goes, if it is Super Typhoon strength I hope it goes north of the Philippines and minimizes the impact

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 14.7N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 17.3N 132.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 170000UTC 18.3N 128.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 180000UTC 18.5N 124.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[oaba09]

a possible super typhoon at landfall......that's just crazy scary...

It will be interesting to see where it goes, if it is Super Typhoon strength I hope it goes north of the Philippines and minimizes the impact

The impact on the north would actually be more devastating if we're talking about economics because the north of the Luzon relies on agriculture as a primary source of income(most are farmers)....

[supercane]

PAGASA issued a weather advisory about Megi:

WEATHER ADVISORY

Weather Advisory No. 05
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "MEGI"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., 15 October 2010
As of 10:00 a.m. today, the Tropical Storm with international name "MEGI" over the Marianas was estimated at 1,300 km east of Southern Luzon (14.7°N, 137.1°E) with maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 135 kph. It is moving west northwest at 20 kph. This weather disturbance is expected to enter the PAR between 12 mn and 2 a.m. tomorrow and may landfall over the eastern coast of Cagayan-Isabela area on Monday afternoon (October 18).

General public and local disaster risk reduction managers - are advised to prepare and take precautionary measures

Fishermen - advised not to venture over the eastern and northern coasts of Luzon

Farmers - advised to monitor weather updates

Travelers - advised not to travel starting on sunday morning, particularly in landslide prone areas of Northern and Eastern Luzon

--> The next update will be incorporated within the regular issuance of public weather forecast at 5 p.m. today and the next advisory will be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.

[oaba09]

Based on the JMA track, it seems like the system moved a westwards...

[Typhoon10]

a possible super typhoon at landfall......that's just crazy scary...

It will be interesting to see where it goes, if it is Super Typhoon strength I hope it goes north of the Philippines and minimizes the impact

The impact on the north would actually be more devastating if we're talking about economics because the north of the Luzon relies on agriculture as a primary source of income(most are farmers)....

Ok, just hope it doesnt affect any part of Philippines too much.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Much better Video today, you can tell I'm more awake. Anyhow thanks again Storm2k for letting me share these here, let me know if you guys agree or disagree with my fcst. (unofficial)


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E3k6SsmhGM[/youtube]