WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[cycloneye]

JTESO, will you be chasing Megi?

[supercane]

First morning vis:

[ejeraldmc]

PAGASA says it's 85 kph strong... :-/

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

PAGASA says it's 85 kph strong... :-/

Not a surprise. JMA are also at 50 kt at 21z/5 am PHT. JMA fix due any moment now, we'll see if they're willing to break Dvorak constraints.

[Chacor]

Might finally get an upgrade.

TCNA21 RJTD 150000
CCAA 15000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17145 11374 13344 240// 93411=

T4.0 now.

[KWT]

System is trying to tighten up, right now the innetr core still looks a little on the poor side but that can change pretty rapidly...

Still expecting a 4/5 into Luzon in 4 days time and a WNW track through the South China Sea as a large and strong 3/4 type system.

[dhoeze]

Hey guys, for the past 3 hours, my amateur eyes is telling me it went up a bit north, is this part of the forecasted track?

[Typhoon10]

Hey guys, for the past 3 hours, my amateur eyes is telling me it went up a bit north, is this part of the forecasted track?

I hope so as to limit the damage to Philippines. Am hoping it goes further north through the Bashi channel before moving into the SCS

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey guys, for the past 3 hours, my amateur eyes is telling me it went up a bit north, is this part of the forecasted track?

There's a weakness in the ridge hence Megi is gaining a bit of latitude. The trough is forecast to fill and ridge rebuild behind it and push Megi back on a westward track. JTWC mentioned that in their last prognostic reasoning.

Typhoon10, the 12z ECMWF run takes Megi much closer to HK.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 14.5N 137.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 17.0N 133.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 170000UTC 18.3N 128.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 180000UTC 18.5N 124.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Typhoon10]

Hey guys, for the past 3 hours, my amateur eyes is telling me it went up a bit north, is this part of the forecasted track?

There's a weakness in the ridge hence Megi is gaining a bit of latitude. The trough is forecast to fill and ridge rebuild behind it and push Megi back on a westward track. JTWC mentioned that in their last prognostic reasoning.

Typhoon10, the 12z ECMWF run takes Megi much closer to HK.

Hey TH, yeah was looking at the ECMWF runs and is it me or do they show at 144 its south of the Pearl Delta then swings north making landfall about 200km west of the Pearl Delta at 196?

[cycloneye]

This is the 00 UTC five day forecast by JMA.

[Typhoon10]

This is the 00 UTC five day forecast by JMA.

Wow, that does really put it north and not hitting Philippines!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey guys, for the past 3 hours, my amateur eyes is telling me it went up a bit north, is this part of the forecasted track?

As already noted by TH this is suppose to happen with the weakness in the ridge to the N for the time being, a little drift to the NW before moving W. Good news as it should move N of Manilla.

[StormingB81]

NOGAPS has this storm coming straight to Okinawa now!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yap, it is really picking up on the trough and the associated strnry front being a lot stronger than reality, I dont think it will swing that far N and NGPS is the outlying model on this. On that note it is the Navy model and I would be suprised to see JT move the overall cone over you at 03Z for safety. Sometimes there warnings can be political in the fact that just haft to put the base inside the cone if they have the faintest thought it may move N so you will go to COR III. Just watch..

[StormingB81]

And the next frame after that Rob has it going NE so if that DOES happend Okinawa would be in for a couple of days of crazy weather... We shall see the cause the NOGAPS has been going back and forth the last 2 days. That why I am interested in what will happend over the weekend. Other models to are starting to bite on that northern move instead of it going to PI...but we shall see. I mean you could throw in the joke arund here that anything headed to Japan turns at the last minute..lol

[cycloneye]

JTWC 00 UTC Warning 09=90kts

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.0N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, AIRCRAFT, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.9N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.1N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.1N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.7N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 136.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 25 FEET.
AT 101500 TYPHOON CENTER LOCATED 937 NM E OF MANILA.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//

[StormingB81]

Still no real change to the path either. Guess they arn't biting on the NOGAPS model..