WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[supercane]

Latest Dvoraks T2.5 from RJTD (JMA) v T3.0 from KNES (SAB) and T4.0 from PGTW (JTWC). 06Z text below:
TPPN11 PGTW 140629
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI)
B. 14/0457Z
C. 12.2N
D. 140.4E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 0530Z IMAGE NOT AVAILABLE. LLCC
EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A 4.0. PT YIELDS
A 3.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA

853
TCNA21 RJTD 140600
CCAA 14060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17123 11396 14334 225// 92909=

Given recon posted above (good catch Typhoon Hunter) and PGTW Dvorak of T4.0, we could see upgrade to typhoon at JTWC 09Z advisory, though they're not tipping their hat yet. Expect JMA to increase MSW up slightly; next advisory (06Z) in about 10 minutes.

[dhoeze]

Off Topic: Anyone knows the average 24 hours rainfall that Typhoon Parma dropped in PI last year? Megi would have the same strength coming to PI as Parma was last year.

[supercane]

Don't have daily rainfall rates, but here is the total event rainfall based on TRMM estimates (Source:http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=40687).


However, you're focused on the wrong thing, as the amount of rain depends more on the speed of movement matters than the storm's intensity. The figure also shows this, indicating Parma's meandering path about Luzon over several days.

As for rainfall estimates for the current system, you can look at one of the latest microwave passes to see how much rainfall Megi is putting down. Since the system is currently not expected to stall and there has not been extensive rains from a prior system, this should not be the flooding disaster that Parma was.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Given recon posted above (good catch Typhoon Hunter)

Credit to Michael Padua who passed that info on to me on Gmail chat.

JMA ignoring recon again, no surprises there

DTG: 20101014/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MEGI
NR: 5
PSN: N1235 E13925
MOV: WNW 10KT
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT

[dexterlabio]

Off Topic: Anyone knows the average 24 hours rainfall that Typhoon Parma dropped in PI last year? Megi would have the same strength coming to PI as Parma was last year.

Have no idea on the amount of rainfall in 1 day but because Parma overstayed and went back and forth Luzon, more than 1000 mm of rainfall was recorded in Baguio city according to an interview from PAGASA.

[supercane]

Beat me to it. 06Z JMA advisory:

WTPQ20 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 12.6N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 14.5N 136.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 160600UTC 16.3N 132.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 170600UTC 17.5N 128.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[phwxenthusiast]

Given recon posted above (good catch Typhoon Hunter)

Credit to Michael Padua who passed that info on to me on Gmail chat.

JMA ignoring recon again, no surprises there

DTG: 20101014/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MEGI
NR: 5
PSN: N1235 E13925
MOV: WNW 10KT
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT

lol... at least they increased the winds a little bit...

[dexterlabio]

Latest Dvoraks T2.5 from RJTD (JMA) v T3.0 from KNES (SAB) and T4.0 from PGTW (JTWC). 06Z text below:
TPPN11 PGTW 140629
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI)
B. 14/0457Z
C. 12.2N
D. 140.4E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 0530Z IMAGE NOT AVAILABLE. LLCC
EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A 4.0. PT YIELDS
A 3.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA

853
TCNA21 RJTD 140600
CCAA 14060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17123 11396 14334 225// 92909=

Given recon posted above (good catch Typhoon Hunter) and PGTW Dvorak of T4.0, we could see upgrade to typhoon at JTWC 09Z advisory, though they're not tipping their hat yet. Expect JMA to increase MSW up slightly; next advisory (06Z) in about 10 minutes.

Bit unsure of the coordinate, but why does it seem the center was relocated from 139 deg back to 140 deg?

[phwxenthusiast]

a bit stronger now on the latest ECMWF run... still not as strong as the others though... main intensification won't happen until it reaches the SCS, then it will really blow up...

[supercane]

Bit unsure of the coordinate, but why does it seem the center was relocated from 139 deg back to 140 deg?

That was PGTW's (JTWC) satellite fix bulletin, and does not necessarily represent a relocation or the advisory time location. I am as baffled as you are, however. Below is a BD image at the time of that satellite fix taken from CIRA's site. The center is clearly west of 140W at that time.

Hopefully the 140deg location was just a typo.

[StormingB81]

She is starting to look well defined. Tomorrow and on will become interesting as it continues to develop and strengthen....Like the ysay even in a slow season it only takes 1 monster. I think we have our monster growing.

[Typhoon10]

TH and others. At this early stage, how close do you think it may come to HK? As am off at the moment, am thinking of maybe going to Philippines then heading upto somewhere near Bagiuo?

[RobWESTPACWX]

a bit stronger now on the latest ECMWF run... still not as strong as the others though... main intensification won't happen until it reaches the SCS, then it will really blow up...

That is so far out I don't even want to think about it, but you do have a point, If it survives well enough through the PI, HK and SE china are likely going to haft to watch this storm. Way way way out....

[RobWESTPACWX]

TH and others. At this early stage, how close do you think it may come to HK? As am off at the moment, am thinking of maybe going to Philippines then heading upto somewhere near Bagiuo?

I didnt even realize you posted that when I posted the previous comment

[StormingB81]

Well remember now some models have it making a right hand turn going north right as it exits PI. it is just a waiting game.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed storming, way to far out to say anything at this time. Heck that goes for the PI, this storm good very well go farther N towards Taiwan, not likely but still the chance there.

[supercane]

JMA just issued its 5-day forecast for Megi and shows the system hitting northern Luzon and continuing W into the SCS.


Improving microwave appearance, but interestingly enough no sign of the eye recon found at about the same time.

[cebuboy]

Any chances this will hit Cebu? It looks like it trends south. I hope it does not because I have a duathlon this coming Oct.17. God bless to all in the Philippines for this incoming monster.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Any chances this will hit Cebu? It looks like it trends south. I hope it does not because I have a duathlon this coming Oct.17. God bless to all in the Philippines for this incoming monster.

You know it's not out of the question, the error cone is right on the edge of CEBU and yes the models are trending S but I don't believe that far south, you may get some outer rain bands with with winds but I think the Typhoon Strength winds will stay N of Samar.... Still a few days out though. I think most of the people here would agree with me on that much right?

[Crostorm]