ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

When is Paula supposed to make her turn towards the ENE? Seems like she's just scooting along to the north

[GCANE]

Still firing high rain-rate and overshooting tops.

[wxman57]

When is Paula supposed to make her turn towards the ENE? Seems like she's just scooting along to the north

Right about now. It's a tiny storm. Little impact on south Florida even if it passes midway between the Keys and Cuba.

[JPmia]

yeah it looks like we will only *possibly* get a minor feeder band per Miami NWS and that's about it. Most likely we won't even know there is a tropical system to our south. Amazing little TC this is and I've never seen one this small before, though I know there have been some small TCs in the past.

[Frank2]

Here's the 00Z MIA sounding (note the 50 kt winds at 200 mb):

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/mfl.gif

[Macrocane]

Paula still looks good this morning it has managed well the wind shear, I think it may be more affected by land interaction with Cuba than by wind shear.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Paula still looks good this morning it has managed well the wind shear, I think it may be more affected by land interaction with Cuba than by wind shear.

Wind shear is just starting to increase now.

[HURAKAN]

Here's the 00Z MIA sounding (note the 50K winds at 200 mb):

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/mfl.gif

Key West and Cancun are reporting 35 knots and I still don't see Paula being affected

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

It looks like the inner core is trying to strengthen again, though I suspect its probably a category-1 right now...

The shear is going to get it in the end I'd have thought but we will see, sometimes these systems don't always respond as quickly as the models suggest...

[Blown Away]

Amazing there is a mid October hurricane moving north through the Yucatan Channel that will have very little effect on SFL. Very unusual and interesting track.

[wxman57]

Here's the 00Z MIA sounding (note the 50K winds at 200 mb):

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/mfl.gif

Key West and Cancun are reporting 35 knots and I still don't see Paula being affected

Look at the satellite representation (including WV). Squalls are beginning to elongate to the ENE. Outflow is poor in most quadrants as Paula reaches the NW side of the ridge. Increasing SW-WSW winds aloft are taking their toll.

[KWT]

Yeah looks to me like the system is just starting to reach the edge of the higher shear, the recon flights have constantly shown the shear at least at flight level markedly picking up between 21-23N which is the zone Paula is moving through now.

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data, my guess is that it peaked at 0000Z last night with a 90 kt intensity.

[CrazyC83]

Amazing there is a mid October hurricane moving north through the Yucatan Channel that will have very little effect on SFL. Very unusual and interesting track.

Given the low confidence though, I would personally put up a Tropical Storm Watch for the Keys.

[DESTRUCTION5]

With her tiny size her moisture will be stripped quickly... I thing she's gonna weaken justas fast as she ramped up....

[HURAKAN]

IDA vs PAULA

[tolakram]

How in the world is Paula staying organized? Still an eye spot showing in IR and visible even though you can see the upper level winds starting to push the convection to the NE.

[HURAKAN]

Latest