ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[aquifer]

According to this: http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/cruiseships.phtml Radiance of the Seas is not the only cruise ship in the vicinity of Paula. Looks like a couple other cruise ships were caught in the path of Paula. But, I checked the info sailwx.com provides about Radiance (click on the name) and it's apparently reporting just 2 ft. waves. The largest waves reported by Radiance have been 2.5 feet. The winds are about 44 knots, though, so they've most likely got the upper decks closed down and passengers are having to stay below.

Actually, it looks like the Radiance is experiencing 2-meter waves, not 2-foot (the latest reading says: "Waves 2.0 meters (7 feet), 5 second period"). I bet those passengers will have some interesting stories to tell.

-- Bob

[maxx9512]

I seen this all the time with lows in the gulfm little pulses of energy ride along this line. With the little I know this could be a plausible
guess. Interesting, but maybe I am off base with this possibilty.

[AJC3]

Looking at the way the clouds are moving into SWFla. on this view it would look like the storm would follow.
I guess the front coming that is just in upper left is going to turn it before that. Is the timing going to be critical or is it something that is just not going to happen and it will turn first? I guess following cloud movement is not really a good indicator. Here is the satt. I am looking at.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Doesn't matter in this case. Upper air observations and model guidance continue to indicate: 1) The mean layer flow north of about 24N is not going to back (i.e. acquire enough of a southerly component) enough for Paula to get significantly far northward that it would threaten Florida; and 2) More importantly, upper level winds and shear over Florida are not going to abate any time soon. RAOBs have continually shown strong U/L westerlies in place across Florida, and these are only forecast to increase over the next couple of days. Paula is a small storm and is unlikely to be able to fight off the significantly strong shear that it will encounter farther north for very long.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Got this reply at 9:30 PM EST from cruising buddies:

Friends of ours are currently on Radiance. We heard from them this afternoon when they were docked in Costa Maya. The weather has not been as bad as all of us thought. They've had no problems. There are winds and high waves, but not extreme. This is a small storm. Hurricane winds only extend out 15 miles. They left this evening for Belize and have no sea problems.
Very surprising news, but very welcome news.

[psyclone]

nice to get confirmation of this from a blue tag. it's been painfully obvious for quite some time that florida has been and remains an extremely hostile environment for a tropical cyclone.

[fci]

nice to get confirmation of this from a blue tag. it's been painfully obvious for quite some time that florida has been and remains an extremely hostile environment for a tropical cyclone.

Having not been on the board for hours and catching up on the posts; the information you are talking about from Tony confirms what wxman57 has been saying for a while, and what the NHC has been saying; that Paula is not a threat to South Florida.
Reading the comments about the "threat" that have been stirred up on the board, I suspect that additional confirmation of the lack of a threat to South Florida is disappointing to some.

OT: can someone clue me in to what people are talking about when they mention the possibility of "Richard" developing???

[CourierPR]

nice to get confirmation of this from a blue tag. it's been painfully obvious for quite some time that florida has been and remains an extremely hostile environment for a tropical cyclone.

Having not been on the board for hours and catching up on the posts; the information you are talking about from Tony confirms what wxman57 has been saying for a while, and what the NHC has been saying; that Paula is not a threat to South Florida.
Reading the comments about the "threat" that have been stirred up on the board, I suspect that additional confirmation of the lack of a threat to South Florida is disappointing to some.

OT: can someone clue me in to what people are talking about when they mention the possibility of "Richard" developing???

fci, check out the long/medium range models thread at Talkin' Tropics.

[Florida1118]

nice to get confirmation of this from a blue tag. it's been painfully obvious for quite some time that florida has been and remains an extremely hostile environment for a tropical cyclone.

Having not been on the board for hours and catching up on the posts; the information you are talking about from Tony confirms what wxman57 has been saying for a while, and what the NHC has been saying; that Paula is not a threat to South Florida.
Reading the comments about the "threat" that have been stirred up on the board, I suspect that additional confirmation of the lack of a threat to South Florida is disappointing to some.

OT: can someone clue me in to what people are talking about when they mention the possibility of "Richard" developing???

I believe GFS yesterday was showing Richard developing in lala land....196hrs or something. I haven't looked to see what other the models have to say about this.

[chaser1]

nice to get confirmation of this from a blue tag. it's been painfully obvious for quite some time that florida has been and remains an extremely hostile environment for a tropical cyclone.

Having not been on the board for hours and catching up on the posts; the information you are talking about from Tony confirms what wxman57 has been saying for a while, and what the NHC has been saying; that Paula is not a threat to South Florida.
Reading the comments about the "threat" that have been stirred up on the board, I suspect that additional confirmation of the lack of a threat to South Florida is disappointing to some.

OT: can someone clue me in to what people are talking about when they mention the possibility of "Richard" developing???

Not a threat, unless one lives or owns a trailer or boat down in the Keys. From having seen the northward expansion and progression of the moisture field well north of 22N, it remains well within the realm of possibility that Paula has amplified the ridging over Florida to the extent that the southward expansion of the next short wave will be hung up enough, that a ENE motion may be plausible and while shear will not be abating, the net shear given a potential 10-15kt. forward motion, could in essence bring Paula ( or the equivalent of an extremely large and strong "waterspout" ) just south or just over the lower Keys sometime late Thursday night.

[fci]

You should be fine as the Pro consensus is that Paula does not get past Cuba and due to its tiny size, even a ride along the North Coast should be of little consequence to The Keys.
But I appreciate the concern you would have with a trailer or a boat down in The Keys.
Most of the talk I have had about the "threat" related to South Florida (Mainland) where there never has really been a threat and even if Paula moved this far north, it would be an inconsequential sheared mess of a fast moving TS.
Paula is so small though that even if she moved a bit further north (along the Northern Cuba coast), the impact on The Keys would presume to be minimal.
I appreciate your concern since The Keys are certainly more vulnerable than The Mainland.
In this case though, the Pros are all together on the forecast that Paula is hardly a threat to Florida at all.
Last I saw the Key West NWS showed a 30% chance of TS winds in The Keys and even TS winds are pretty benign.

[lester]

recon found 86 kts FL/ 979.5 mbs so far

[lester]

VORTEX message in. pressure at 985 mbs, southern eyewall is open, occasional lightning ooh.

[supercane]

Latest Cancun radar shows extremely small system passing E of Cancun:


Latest ob from Cancun very lackluster with WNW winds at 5kt:
MMUN 130240Z 31005KT 7SM SCT015 BKN090 OVC300 23/22 A2991 RMK SLP128 52011 953 8/537

[supercane]

Recon flying back to base; last decoded VDM below. Note peak SFMR winds only 69kt compared to max flight level winds of 96kt.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 08:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 7:40:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°31'N 86°00'W (20.5167N 86.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 69 miles (112 km) to the SE (129°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,981m (9,780ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SSW (204°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 309° at 62kts (From the NW at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (212°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,015m (9,892ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open ESE
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:43:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:43:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Max outbound SWS NE quad 79kts 07:41:20Z

[supercane]

WTNT33 KNHC 130851
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...STILL PACKING 100 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 20.7N 86.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 22.3N 85.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 23.0N 83.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 22.9N 80.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[GCANE]

25 knots of shear has pretty much destroyed the core.

Little TC's get knocked down fast.

She gave a valiant effort yesterday afternoon with some impressive convection.

With the track forecast to skirt Cuba, won't be much left except some heavy rain and winds.

Looks like the wall of shear will presist for at least another week if not longer.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Anythng coming out of the Carib and moving into the GOM will pretty much get shredded.

[wxman57]

Doesn't appear as though the Keys will even know when Paula passes - even if it tracks only about 50 miles south of the Keys. There won't be much left of Paula then. We're expecting only a few showers there and maybe wind 20-30 mph, but that wind is due mainly to the building high pressure to the north rather than Paula.

[alch97]

I guess that means schools will not be shut down in south florida.... darn it!!!!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think if it was a bigger system. Then people would be watching. Looks like a big thunderstorm. It's been a weird year. Nothing like 2005.

[Nimbus]

The usual south Florida mad rush to the stores and gas stations will be avoided as long as they don't get under a hurricane watch. That's about the only real threat, the media hype from a hurricane. The high pressure over central America does look to be shifting west a little and the upper level winds are coming from the NW over Texas behind that ULL. Sounds like Richard is just a post season maybe at this point.