ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[MGC]

I guess the NHC is going with the GFDL......I was thinking the GFDL was right...I just could not see Paula stalling with such a potent trough approaching. I'm wondering how far north Paula will get before the hard right turn. If the hurricane takes a slightly north track and passes through the Florida Straigts there could be some potential impacts to the Keys.......MGC

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

looks like the hot towers have wrapped around the west and south of the core. i agree that it'll add heating to the core, and allow for more strengthining when the hot towers die out and only for the short term. i think it'll weaken some tommrow and more on thurs as the front grabs it and interacts with paula. i dont think cat 4 is outta the question as this is tiny. hurricane force winds only extend 10 miles out. jmo of course. we just might dodge a bullet in s. fl.

[gatorcane]

I guess the NHC is going with the GFDL......I was thinking the GFDL was right...I just could not see Paula stalling with such a potent trough approaching. I'm wondering how far north Paula will get before the hard right turn. If the hurricane takes a slightly north track and passes through the Florida Straigts there could be some potential impacts to the Keys.......MGC

Yeah that was my forecast as well yesterday. Looks like it gets picked up. Question now is how far north does it get before it makes the turn if it does?

[Shuriken]

Havana is screwed in the new track...even if the winds aren't that high (but they probably will be), the SW->ENE track is a bad one for piling water over the low seawall there, and flooding the town.

[floridastorm88]

can someone post a water vapor loop please

[Blown Away]

I guess the NHC is going with the GFDL......I was thinking the GFDL was right...I just could not see Paula stalling with such a potent trough approaching. I'm wondering how far north Paula will get before the hard right turn. If the hurricane takes a slightly north track and passes through the Florida Straigts there could be some potential impacts to the Keys.......MGC

Yeah that was my forecast as well yesterday. Looks like it gets picked up. Question now is how far north does it get before it makes the turn if it does?

That is an odd track, possible yes, but I bet we see that track bend more NE with time and see a system cross over western Cuba, through the FL Straits, and out through the Central Bahamas.

[Evil Jeremy]

can someone post a water vapor loop please

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Sustaining cold convection.

[gatorcane]

All of the GFS ensembles are insisting on a Southern FL hit still, looking at the latest SFWMD plots. They show more of a NE to ENE trajectory instead of due East

[Shuriken]

think it'll weaken some tommrow and more on thurs as the front grabs it and interacts with paula. i dont think cat 4 is outta the question as this is tiny. hurricane force winds only extend 10 miles out. jmo of course. we just might dodge a bullet in s. fl.

IMO it'll follow a Gustav/Wilma/Charley analog: get intense first, then grow in size (if able).

If Paula reaches cat-4, the ability of lesser/moderate shear to affect it will decrease markedly.

[floridastorm88]

can someone post a water vapor loop please

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Sustaining cold convection.

Paula moving north? ls it looking like she may clip Florida? Thanks for posting the loop

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

I wished RECON was there, it seems like Paula is intenisfying as the cloud tops have cooled even more.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.htm

[latitude_20]

Was just looking at sailwx.com to see what ships might be in the area - freakin' passenger ship, Radiance of the Seas, right out there in it.

I'm all for keeping to the cruise schedule, but dude.

[Recurve]

It's been a dark and stormy day in the Keys, that's for sure. Near constant rain since after noon, but less than an inch accumulated on Key Largo. Pressure trending downward to 29.93 at Molasses Reef. Really dark but little wind. Outer band/blob been parked over us. No one too concerned about getting a hurricane, but road flooding could be a problem.

[HURAKAN]

tiny eye

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow! That would persuade me that she is now a major. Pinhole eye anyone?

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[sunnyday]

Wow! People surely slacked off writing in about Paula. Last night things were pretty active (when Fl might have been threatened), but now that most of the peninsula is out of the woods, not too much is going on.
As I've said before, Fl leads a charmed life most of the time.

[floridastorm88]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

Wow looks like it going right into the gulf