ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[caneman]

Starting to get a bit concerning. I don't care what anyone says but it sure seems as if NOGAPS at this point has the right solution.

[caneseddy]

And earlier this morning, we were wondering whether Paula was going to be downgraded to a TS or in the end up dissipating

Just goes to show the unpredictability of these storms

[petit_bois]

Starting to get a bit concerning. I don't care what anyone says but it sure seems as if NOGAPS at this point has the right solution.

NOGAPS has a 1008mb system.

[caneseddy]

Starting to get a bit concerning. I don't care what anyone says but it sure seems as if NOGAPS at this point has the right solution.

NOGAPS has a 1008mb system.

Interesting....either it initialized it weak or the front just shears it apart coming towards Florida...however, I know that models are not good indicators for strength

[caneman]

Starting to get a bit concerning. I don't care what anyone says but it sure seems as if NOGAPS at this point has the right solution.

NOGAPS has a 1008mb system.

I'm talking direction and handle of atmosphere not intensity. Models aren't good with intensity but in the end it may get that right too. We'll see.

[SouthDadeFish]

The NOGAPS initialized decently looking at the 500mb vort. It gets sheared bad after 24 hours and is much weaker by 48 hours. Brings (what I'm guessing) a weak TS right extreme SFL.

[hiflyer]

First off the normal 'stronger it is more poleward it goes' argument is rapidly rearing it's head...especially with the light winds recon had at altitude on the way in. Secondly several in here have remarked that the initial development was 'missed' by the NHC and may had been stronger earlier....which leads to where the heck is the global hawk or GIV? If any storm needs high altitude sniffing around to let the models get any handle on what is happening it is this one...intensifying in an area historically known for developing problems for the Continental US and within 500 miles of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks like this thing is about to get a bit stronger. The outflow from the anticyclone seems to be expanding in recent frames.

[Blown Away]

Doesn't look like the NHC is going with a stronger/deeper Paula will go more poleward and be steered by more SW flow. They bumped up her intensity but esentially kept the same track.

[Evil Jeremy]

Doesn't look like the NHC is going with a stronger/deeper Paula will go more poleward and be steered by more SW flow. They bumped up her intensity but esentially kept the same track.

They don't change track on special advisories. Just like with intermediates.

[cycloneye]

Doesn't look like the NHC is going with a stronger/deeper Paula will go more poleward and be steered by more SW flow. They bumped up her intensity but esentially kept the same track.

In Special Advisories,the track doesn't change.

[Ptarmigan]

Paula's small size could certainly allow rapid intensification, especially with cooler thunderstorm cloud tops in the eyewall.

[hiflyer]

Let me add that of course the folks on the northeast end of the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba are now getting a heck of a wake up call with this 'stronger than forecast by the NHC' Cat2 upgrade....and it is on their doorstep.

In fact the Cancun radar appears to now have the eye on the last frame at 1815z...the location matches with sat pix.

[GCANE]

Paula is becoming the dominant convection in the west Carib and SE GOM area.

That should allow the tropopause to build a dome centered over Paula due to diabatic heating of the upper troposphere.

The effect should be seen as a movement of the anti-cyclone to over the LLC.

This in turn should show up as a reduction in shear around Paula.

[northjaxpro]

And earlier this morning, we were wondering whether Paula was going to be downgraded to a TS or in the end up dissipating

Just goes to show the unpredictability of these storms

You are exactly right. Just about 6 hours ago, it appeared on imagery that Paula was undergoing some weakening with the inner core as it appeared dry air was being ingested into her at that time.

What a difference six hours make. Paula's small, but well comapcted and defined inner core really has taken shape since this morning and Recon has now found a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone. Amazing indeed. These small compact cyclones can intensify and weaken rapidly.

Paula looks likely poised to become another major hurricane in this season. A fascinating system to monitor.

[fci]

Doesn't look like the NHC is going with a stronger/deeper Paula will go more poleward and be steered by more SW flow. They bumped up her intensity but esentially kept the same track.

I think that the bottom line remains that from a Florida perspective; nothing changes based on the intensity of Paula.
No one sees this as a threat to Florida A's anything more than a sheared TS and most likely she will never get here at all. Concerns for Cancun, Cozumel and Cuba notwithstanding.

[AdamFirst]

Just for size comparison, how big was Andrew? Andrew was a small storm as well.

[fci]

Let me add that of course the folks on the northeast end of the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba are now getting a heck of a wake up call with this 'stronger than forecast by the NHC' Cat2 upgrade....and it is on their doorstep.

Reports I saw last night indicated that Cat 2 WAS forecasted.

[AdamFirst]

Reports I saw last night indicated that Cat 2 WAS forecasted.

Not this quickly, however.