ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[GCANE]

Yeah upto category-2 now, just goes to show the global models are just utterly clueless with this system at the moment, the GFS for example decays this in 18hrs...

Could well end up becoming a major afterall judging from the way the eye is clearing out, small system though so its gonna be prone to quick changes in the set-up aloft...

This could be major and maybe another notch.

I can't believe how bad the models blew this one.

[jlauderdal]

one puff of wind from the wrong direction and this thing gets knocked down to a TS

[SouthDadeFish]

The remnants of the tower has built some high altitude cirrus and is covering the core.

Latent heating should be raising the core temp over the next few hours and should see a visible eye pop then.

If an eyewall hot tower fires after that, it would most likely kick off an RI.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 17&lon=-85

GCANE, thank you for all your analysis. It has been very interesting and helpful during this confusing storm.

[HURAKAN]

Paula is so small, that we can only expect unpredictable things

[caneseddy]

This is reminding me a bit of Felix where the models (especially GFS) blew the intensity whereby as it was turning into a major, the models kept initializing it as a weak storm

Goes to show how far we are from accurately predicting intensity

[SouthFloridawx]

[GCANE]

The remnants of the tower has built some high altitude cirrus and is covering the core.

Latent heating should be raising the core temp over the next few hours and should see a visible eye pop then.

If an eyewall hot tower fires after that, it would most likely kick off an RI.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 17&lon=-85

GCANE, thank you for all your analysis. It has been very interesting and helpful during this confusing storm.

Your welcome, my pleasure.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah upto category-2 now, just goes to show the global models are just utterly clueless with this system at the moment, the GFS for example decays this in 18hrs...

Could well end up becoming a major afterall judging from the way the eye is clearing out, small system though so its gonna be prone to quick changes in the set-up aloft...

This could be major and maybe another notch.

I can't believe how bad the models blew this one.

What leads you to believe she could achieve a notch above major status in the face of this wind shear? And do you have any personal forecasts on this system?

[Aric Dunn]

The overall cloud patter as continued to show more banding. its still under light to moderate shear of around 10 to 12kts but its also moving with it. This system does have a relatively high chance of becoming a Cat 3 or 4 given its small size.

[CrazyC83]

In terms of model performance, this is starting to be reminiscent of Julia which the models completely bombed on.

[FLpanhandle91]

Yeah upto category-2 now, just goes to show the global models are just utterly clueless with this system at the moment, the GFS for example decays this in 18hrs...

Could well end up becoming a major afterall judging from the way the eye is clearing out, small system though so its gonna be prone to quick changes in the set-up aloft...

This could be major and maybe another notch.

I can't believe how bad the models blew this one.

What leads you to believe she could achieve a notch above major status in the face of this wind shear? And do you have any personal forecasts on this system?

The banding is improving greatly and cooler cloud tops are blowing up as we speak. With such a small storm and tight pressure gradient, any drop in pressure will create a higher jump in the winds. If this thing goes even 12 more hours under this light shear, I believe it will reach cat 3 (maybe cat 4) status. It all depends on the shear though.

[SouthFloridawx]

Shear still relaxing ahead of the system.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[ronjon]

Paula reminds me of Charley - both in size and its rapid intensification. NHC now raises Paula to 110 mph over the next 36 hrs and I believe that's still conservative - wouldn't take much for it to reach major status.

[SouthDadeFish]

Paula is so small I think recon is disrupting her core by flying through it just kidding of course.

[FLpanhandle91]

Very curious to see what this thing looks like in the next few hours. It's so small, it seems like the entire storm changes with every satellite frame.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow, pressure 980

180030 1849N 08552W 8421 01350 9808 +229 +141 357006 008 029 000 03

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure continues to drop according to recon. When they sample the NE quad again it will be interesting.

[GCANE]

Yeah upto category-2 now, just goes to show the global models are just utterly clueless with this system at the moment, the GFS for example decays this in 18hrs...

Could well end up becoming a major afterall judging from the way the eye is clearing out, small system though so its gonna be prone to quick changes in the set-up aloft...

This could be major and maybe another notch.

I can't believe how bad the models blew this one.

What leads you to believe she could achieve a notch above major status in the face of this wind shear? And do you have any personal forecasts on this system?

1) High OHC water
2) Well established poleward outflow channel
3) Anti-cyclone over the LLC.

All that blows shear out of the way.

[SouthFloridawx]

[dixiebreeze]

wow! 12/1745 UTC 18.8N 85.9W T5.0/5.0 PAULA -- Atlantic