ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[GCANE]

They should find a closed eyewall.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

[cycloneye]

Even in this panoramic view, you can see the eye. And look how small Paula is.

[HURAKAN]

329
URNT12 KNHC 121717
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 12/17:02:10Z
B. 18 deg 41 min N
085 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1291 m
D. 92 kt
E. 057 deg 6 nm
F. 137 deg 93 kt
G. 055 deg 9 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 27 C / 1520 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0318A PAULA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 16:59:10Z
EYEWALL RAGGED
;

[HURAKAN]

[SouthDadeFish]

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 12th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 18.7N 85.8W
Location: 164 miles (264 km) to the E (85°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
982mb (29.00 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 25.9°C (78.6°F) 285° (from the WNW) 14 knots (16 mph)
1000mb -159m (-522 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 532m (1,745 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F) 290° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 1,279m (4,196 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F) 320° (from the NW) 9 knots (10 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:02Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 18.67N 85.83W
Splash Time: 17:04Z

Release Location: 18.67N 85.84W View map)
Release Time: 17:02:21Z

982 mb.

[petit_bois]

Cat 2?

[CrazyC83]

Cat 2?

It appears that way.

[wzrgirl1]

Will she be upgraded? What does 982 mb equate to??

[Evil Jeremy]

Cold cloud tops have been refiring over the past couple of hours:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[SouthDadeFish]

982 mb is usually a cat 1, but this is a small hurricane and has a very tight pressure gradient, resulting in stronger winds than normally found with that pressure. Seeing the vortex message, it most likely will be bumped up to at least an 85 knot cat 2.

[CrazyC83]

Will she be upgraded? What does 982 mb equate to??

I'm guessing a Special Advisory is coming soon. 982mb is rather high for its intensity (85-90 kt) but understandable given its small size. Normally 982 would be around 75 kt.

[Aric Dunn]

Will she be upgraded? What does 982 mb equate to??

I'm guessing a Special Advisory is coming soon. 982mb is rather high for its intensity (85-90 kt) but understandable given its small size. Normally 982 would be around 75 kt.

actually its about right given the high background pressures.

[Evil Jeremy]

Special is out:

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS... ...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...

[SouthDadeFish]

This was from earlier today at 5AM:

THE MODEL SPREAD IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE
PREDICTED INTENSITY. A STRONGER SYSTEM SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL
WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A WEAK/SHALLOW CYCLONE SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD
LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY LOW-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. SINCE WE EXPECT PAULA TO WEAKEN IN THE LATTER HALF OF
FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS NOTED
IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.

So now that Paula is stronger than forecast it will be interesting to see if she can catch the deep layer flow.

[Evil Jeremy]

Even though it is not in the forecast, the NHC is giving Paula a 27% chance of strengthening into a Category 3 within the next 12 hours.

[KWT]

Yeah upto category-2 now, just goes to show the global models are just utterly clueless with this system at the moment, the GFS for example decays this in 18hrs...

Could well end up becoming a major afterall judging from the way the eye is clearing out, small system though so its gonna be prone to quick changes in the set-up aloft...

[GCANE]

The remnants of the tower has built some high altitude cirrus and is covering the core.

Latent heating should be raising the core temp over the next few hours and should see a visible eye pop then.

If an eyewall hot tower fires after that, it would most likely kick off an RI.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 17&lon=-85

[cycloneye]

So now that Paula is stronger than forecast it will be interesting to see if she can catch the deep layer flow.

Interesting change from only a few hours ago, when she looked sick. Lets see if the models respond later with now a stronger hurricane and how Paula deals with the deep flow.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah upto category-2 now, just goes to show the global models are just utterly clueless with this system at the moment, the GFS for example decays this in 18hrs...

Could well end up becoming a major afterall judging from the way the eye is clearing out, small system though so its gonna be prone to quick changes in the set-up aloft...

this system is so small Im not surprised the global models are not picking up on it.. also the GFS in the 12z run initialized it at 1004 mb.. lol

It does seem more like that it will get caught up it least somewhat more in the deep layer steering. The 12z nogaps seems reasonable in the short term.

[KWT]

Yeah Cycloneye 6hrs ago and this system really did look like it was starting to get into trouble, and now it looks like its really strengthening at a decent rate and the eye is showing nicely...

Remember that folks because it'll probably be a trend Paula continues with, quick changes in strength.

Chances of a major are increasing all the time now...