ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re:

#981 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:43 am

KWT wrote:Yeah and if that was to happen GCANE once again it'd have a shot at becoming a major unless the dry air picks up again like it did this morning, shear at least in the mid levels don't seem all that bad at all below 23N.


IMHO as long as there is no dry-air entrainment like what you would see on MIMIC-TPW then Paula should do fine.

WISHE should be able to overcome diurnal variations in stable-air / mid-layer, dry-air infeed from the Yucatan Landmass.

In fact WISHE could help to moisten boundary-layer air.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#982 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:48 am

Nice eyewall building underway.


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#983 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:55 am

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Looking good
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#984 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:58 am

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#985 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:01 pm

Looking at early Recon data, we might have a considerably stronger storm.
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#986 Postby Shuriken » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:04 pm

Paula has the visual appearance of a hurricane which is not doing any fooling around as she intensifies to major. Reminds me a lot of Gustav south of Cuba.
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#987 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:06 pm

Big things sometimes come in small packages.
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#988 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

90kt SFMR
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#989 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

Raw T# = 4.1

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt18L.html

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#990 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

Recon supports a Cat 2 - guessing 85 kt as a blend of FL and SFMR. I'd expect a Special Advisory around 1:30 pm. It has a pretty high pressure for its intensity though (around 984mb).
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#991 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

You wouldn't really have a clue that a hurricane was not far to the south of this buoy. Just shows how small a storm Paula really is.

If she hit Tampa, Ft. Myers might not even have a breeze.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
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#992 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

165900 1846N 08541W 8451 01437 9975 +167 +067 135089 093 084 032 03
165930 1845N 08542W 8439 01420 9937 +174 +070 144081 087 090 014 00

93 knots flight level, 90 knots at the surface, 983 mb
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#993 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:08 pm

Paula, you're full of surprises aren't you? You little Cat 2, you.
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#994 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:09 pm

93 kt FL = 74 kt at the surface.

Given its small size and deepening trend, I would lean more to the SFMR (90 kt), and that would make my estimate for the intensity 85 kt.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#995 Postby expat2carib » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:10 pm

She's starting to have the appearance of a dangerous sexy babe.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#996 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:15 pm

expat2carib wrote:She's starting to have the appearance of a dangerous sexy babe.


we need alot more of that around here and alot less hurricane geeks... :oops:
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#997 Postby wzrgirl1 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:18 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
expat2carib wrote:She's starting to have the appearance of a dangerous sexy babe.


we need alot more of that around here and alot less hurricane geeks... :oops:



I consider myself a mix of both. :P
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#998 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:19 pm

Yeah I'd go with 85kts right now as well based on what the surface estimates are finding plus the marked improvement of the structure.

I suspect this will be one of those storms that strengthens fast and probably decays equally quickly...
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Re: Re:

#999 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:20 pm

Cookie wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Big things sometimes come in small packages.


that line never works :wink:


didnt work for favre thats for sure
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Re:

#1000 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:21 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah I'd go with 85kts right now as well based on what the surface estimates are finding plus the marked improvement of the structure.

I suspect this will be one of those storms that strengthens fast and probably decays equally quickly...


yep, it needs to get out of the way for hurricane richard down the road, checkout the gfs beyond 240 hours
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