ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re:

#981 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:43 am

KWT wrote:Yeah and if that was to happen GCANE once again it'd have a shot at becoming a major unless the dry air picks up again like it did this morning, shear at least in the mid levels don't seem all that bad at all below 23N.


IMHO as long as there is no dry-air entrainment like what you would see on MIMIC-TPW then Paula should do fine.

WISHE should be able to overcome diurnal variations in stable-air / mid-layer, dry-air infeed from the Yucatan Landmass.

In fact WISHE could help to moisten boundary-layer air.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#982 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:48 am

Nice eyewall building underway.


Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#983 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:55 am

Image

Looking good
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#984 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:58 am

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#985 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:01 pm

Looking at early Recon data, we might have a considerably stronger storm.
0 likes   
Top
Shuriken

#986 Postby Shuriken » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:04 pm

Paula has the visual appearance of a hurricane which is not doing any fooling around as she intensifies to major. Reminds me a lot of Gustav south of Cuba.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#987 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:06 pm

Big things sometimes come in small packages.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#988 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

90kt SFMR
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#989 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

Raw T# = 4.1

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt18L.html

Image
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#990 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

Recon supports a Cat 2 - guessing 85 kt as a blend of FL and SFMR. I'd expect a Special Advisory around 1:30 pm. It has a pretty high pressure for its intensity though (around 984mb).
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#991 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

You wouldn't really have a clue that a hurricane was not far to the south of this buoy. Just shows how small a storm Paula really is.

If she hit Tampa, Ft. Myers might not even have a breeze.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#992 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:07 pm

165900 1846N 08541W 8451 01437 9975 +167 +067 135089 093 084 032 03
165930 1845N 08542W 8439 01420 9937 +174 +070 144081 087 090 014 00

93 knots flight level, 90 knots at the surface, 983 mb
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#993 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:08 pm

Paula, you're full of surprises aren't you? You little Cat 2, you.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#994 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:09 pm

93 kt FL = 74 kt at the surface.

Given its small size and deepening trend, I would lean more to the SFMR (90 kt), and that would make my estimate for the intensity 85 kt.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
expat2carib
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 458
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
Location: Sint Maarten

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#995 Postby expat2carib » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:10 pm

She's starting to have the appearance of a dangerous sexy babe.
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7182
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#996 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:15 pm

expat2carib wrote:She's starting to have the appearance of a dangerous sexy babe.


we need alot more of that around here and alot less hurricane geeks... :oops:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wzrgirl1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1325
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 6:44 am
Location: Pembroke Pines, Florida

Re: ATL: PAULA - Hurricane - Discussion

#997 Postby wzrgirl1 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:18 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
expat2carib wrote:She's starting to have the appearance of a dangerous sexy babe.


we need alot more of that around here and alot less hurricane geeks... :oops:



I consider myself a mix of both. :P
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#998 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:19 pm

Yeah I'd go with 85kts right now as well based on what the surface estimates are finding plus the marked improvement of the structure.

I suspect this will be one of those storms that strengthens fast and probably decays equally quickly...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7182
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: Re:

#999 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:20 pm

Cookie wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Big things sometimes come in small packages.


that line never works :wink:


didnt work for favre thats for sure
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7182
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re:

#1000 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:21 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah I'd go with 85kts right now as well based on what the surface estimates are finding plus the marked improvement of the structure.

I suspect this will be one of those storms that strengthens fast and probably decays equally quickly...


yep, it needs to get out of the way for hurricane richard down the road, checkout the gfs beyond 240 hours
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest