ATL: PAULA - Models

[wzrgirl1]

This is why you can't let your guard down. Once this forms, it is almost guaranteed that in October a front will pick it up. This has the makings of a monster IMO.

That's way too early to say, remember how we all thought that Nicole could have been a monster as well as other disturbance of that whole Caribbean gyro. I say minimal hurricane at its peak.

Again, way to early to say with your prediction as well. Let's just watch

[ronjon]

This is why you can't let your guard down. Once this forms, it is almost guaranteed that in October a front will pick it up. This has the makings of a monster IMO.

That's way too early to say, remember how we all thought that Nicole could have been a monster as well as other disturbance of that whole Caribbean gyro. I say minimal hurricane at its peak.

The upper level conditions and Paula's current state are way different than the Nicole situation. This part of the basin is relatively uptapped yet from a tropical cyclone. If she stays down in the NW caribbean this could have the makings of a major here.

[DanKellFla]

I give up with "possibly Paula." Too many permutations possible. But, it is fun to read about it. I can just see the NHC getting out their 20 sided die, tea leaves and dead chickens trying to figure this one out.

[latitude_20]

[AdamFirst]

I give up with "possibly Paula." Too many permutations possible. But, it is fun to read about it. I can just see the NHC getting out their 20 sided die, tea leaves and dead chickens trying to figure this one out.

It's not "possibly Paula", it is Paula.

[SouthFloridawx]

[KWT]

There seems to be quite alot of spread in the models but I expect once they actually clock that there is probably a quickly strengthening TC in the NW Caribbean we will have more models that actually show it and thus we'll get a better idea of the track.

All depends on how quick it can get to the north, if it makes it to say 22-24N in the next 72hrs then it should have no trouble recurving out, if not then things become more interesting...

[gatorcane]

300MB winds now have a SW vector over South FL according to the 18Z NAM at 36 hours,
so much for shear forecasts from the models from several days ago

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z models will be interesting considering they initialized at 40 knots.

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z GFS, here we go...

[SouthFloridawx]

The models will have a little better handle at the 00Z run for this system.

[SouthFloridawx]

Try again?

[KWT]

Yeah looks like the 18z GFS didn't start off with a good grip of the current strength of the system at all has it!

[SouthFloridawx]

36 Hours

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is way too weak with this system again...so it probably won't get lifted out by the first trough

[KWT]

Yeah Gatorcane the GFS probably won't be too good a judge...of course the GFDL is well known for having a right bias so I'm not sure whether we are going to learn too much till the models have a better starting point on the 00z run.

[gatorcane]

Look at the 300MB Flow from the GFS. If Paula is a strong hurricane it will round the ridge to the east of it and eject to the NE. I'm not buying a stall in the Caribbean at the moment.....

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey where'd it go?

[SouthFloridawx]

Oh there you are...

[SouthFloridawx]

If it heads that far North... HAS to head through Florida as something...