ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

#461 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:35 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The TWO should be coming out soon. It should say either 100% chance or a Special Advisory forthcoming.

have there ever been two Special TWOs (or Special Tropical Weather Statements) between any two scheduled TWOs?

It is possible but unlikely. The scheduled one is very soon.

#462 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The TWO should be coming out soon. It should say either 100% chance or a Special Advisory forthcoming.

have there ever been two Special TWOs (or Special Tropical Weather Statements) between any two scheduled TWOs?

It is possible but unlikely. The scheduled one is very soon.

Wow, time flies when your waiting for recon updates every 10 minutes lol. Didn't realize it was 1:30.

#463 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:38 pm

172900 1542N 08328W 9589 00413 0054 +228 +064 187049 049 042 001 00

49 knots, 1005 mb

#464 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:39 pm

At least a 40 knot TS. I hate when people criticize the NHC, but this time.... seriously?

#465 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:41 pm

They haven't found winds beyond about 210 in direction yet though. I'd want to see it closer to 270. It is probably there though. That is enough IMO to have them wait until 5 pm but put out a strongly-worded TWO.

dwsqos2 · #466 Postby **dwsqos2** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:42 pm

Uh, I would say that the reason those winds haven't been found in that direction is that the center is pretty much on the coast. The plane can't fly there.

#467 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:42 pm

Isn't that because the center is probably too close to land/over land?

#468 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:43 pm

very close to the coast

#469 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:44 pm

looks like it continues to organize and its not entirely over water. Could mean some steady strengthening once fully over water. A hurricane is very possible out of this IMHO.

#470 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:45 pm

that shift in the winds is just 30 miles from the coast

#471 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:45 pm

The wind direction makes sense in that graphic Hurakan to support a closed low, if the center is just offshore, and they missed it ever so slightly to the N.

#472 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:45 pm

Makes sense now. Center probably around 15.7N 83.6W.

#473 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:54 pm

Delay on the TWO. Maybe they are waiting for a recon center confirm to decide on if to start advisories, which would be reflected in the TWO.

#474 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:57 pm

11/1145 UTC 15.1N 83.1W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic

Aquawind · #475 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:57 pm

btangy wrote:I think this will be designated a TD or TS in reanalysis extending back since Saturday. I'm still not sure why NHC is going against all the evidence... T numbers, microwave imagery, visible imagery, and ASCAT. Models aren't bullish on development, but are they really initializing the system well? I'm not so sure. The convection isn't right over the center, but that should not be a requirement for a tropical cyclone. If that were the case, we'd have to downgrade every sheared hurricane once it becomes asymmetric. Recon will be in there later, but with the system so close to land, they might not be able to get a VDM out. I can see the NHC going either way this afternoon: dropping probabilities significantly due to proximity to land or upgrading the system to a TD or TS.

Yep.. I think a TD could have been called long ago. Looks like a upgrade this afternoon..

#476 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:58 pm

175030 1543N 08341W 9589 00385 0025 +222 +074 141018 021 020 000 00

they got closer to the center, 1002.5 mb

#477 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:59 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

#478 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:59 pm

near 100%, just name it already!

#479 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:00 pm

Looks like Paula at 5 pm.

Center looks to be right near the beaches. I would put it at 45 kt, with a pressure of 1001mb (based on adjusting the SFMR to that 1002.5 reading).

hurricaneCW · #480 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:00 pm

We'll see Paula by 5PM.

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