ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

Aric Dunn · #441 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:23 am

Yes it appears the center is over water. not by very far though

tshizzle · #442 Postby **tshizzle** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:28 am

that'd be a pretty sharp turn to the NE for it to miss the Yukatan at this point

Sanibel · #443 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:47 am

I hope people are noting this is improving in structure while clipping land.

I think the center will dig slightly into land more before pulling offshore.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#444 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:54 am

Air must be rapidly destabilzing to the east of 98L.

Seeing a very long N-S squall line forming

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 16&lon=-83

blp · #445 Postby **blp** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:15 pm

Last two reports from Puerto Lempira HO. You can see the wind shift as the center passes by. Looks to be just off the coast as others have mentioned.

http://www.sailwx.info/wxobs/stationreport.phtml?wxid=MHPL

date/time (UTC) wind from knots
2010-Oct-11 16:00 200 14
2010-Oct-11 15:00 300 16

#446 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:18 pm

Find a closed LLC (should be easy) and we have Paula based on Recon data. Looks to be AT LEAST 40-45 kt.

#447 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:19 pm

171330 1620N 08351W 7962 02048 0097 +144 -001 077041 045 041 009 00

45 knots flight level, 41 knots at the surface

#448 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:20 pm

Recon finding winds of over 40kts. It should go straight to TS, ASAP.

#449 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:21 pm

Surprise, Surprise. What were they waiting for?

Aric Dunn · #450 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:21 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Recon finding winds of over 40kts. It should go straight to TS, ASAP.

Looks that way..

#451 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:23 pm

Can someone give me the site where the NHC keeps the ATCF files? The renumbering should come soon (although still hours/days too late).

#452 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:25 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone give me the site where the NHC keeps the ATCF files? The renumbering should come soon (although still hours/days too late).

No renumbering yet.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

#453 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone give me the site where the NHC keeps the ATCF files? The renumbering should come soon (although still hours/days too late).

No renumbering yet.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Thanks.

petit_bois · #454 Postby **petit_bois** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:28 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone give me the site where the NHC keeps the ATCF files? The renumbering should come soon (although still hours/days too late).

too late for what?

#455 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:29 pm

petit_bois wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone give me the site where the NHC keeps the ATCF files? The renumbering should come soon (although still hours/days too late).

too late for what?

I meant that this should have been upgraded a while ago.

jmsewe0 · #456 Postby **jmsewe0** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:31 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:jmsewe0,

I would definitely keep a close eye on this disturbance. It appears likely that the NHC will begin to issue advisories this afternoon, and once they do, we should get a better picture of what's going to happen. If I were you I would look for the TS wind probability outlook at your location once advisories begin.

Fish, thanks for the help! I will be keeping an eye on it. It won't change my plans, but its always good to be up to date.

#457 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:32 pm

The TWO should be coming out soon. It should say either 100% chance or a Special Advisory forthcoming.

#458 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:33 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone give me the site where the NHC keeps the ATCF files? The renumbering should come soon (although still hours/days too late).

Not yet guaranteed. If the LLC is over land, it doesn't count as a TC unless it was already one when it moved onshore. Since it hasn't yet been officially ID'd, I'm betting they go with the technicality and leave it an invest if it's not offshore.

#459 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:34 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The TWO should be coming out soon. It should say either 100% chance or a Special Advisory forthcoming.

have there ever been two Special TWOs (or Special Tropical Weather Statements) between any two scheduled TWOs?

#460 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:35 pm

curtadams wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone give me the site where the NHC keeps the ATCF files? The renumbering should come soon (although still hours/days too late).

Not yet guaranteed. If the LLC is over land, it doesn't count as a TC unless it was already one when it moved onshore. Since it hasn't yet been officially ID'd, I'm betting they go with the technicality and leave it an invest if it's not offshore.

But if it is obvious they would have to pick it up, especially since it could likely return offshore.

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