ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[GCANE]

Overshooting Tops for both blobs.

[jconsor]

The convection near Jamaica is at the northern end (crest) of an elongated N-S trough. The 850 mb vorticity is also elongated north-south and the main area extends from just SSW of Jamaica to about 125 miles east of Costa Rica. Every global model shows the northern end of the area of vorticity splitting from the main system and developing a closed or nearly closed circulation as it drifts WNW toward the Yucatan.

Offshore obs have winds from the ENE-E at 15-20 kts on the southern end of that convection south of Jamaica. That means nothing at the surface. Pressures are higher there than near 98L.

[GCANE]

850mb vorticity is deepening albeit elongated.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... rod=vor850

Anti-cyclone is nicely anchored now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... E&prod=shr

[GCANE]

Core is starting to take shape.

About right height but very wide.

[cycloneye]

98L is nearly stationary.

LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 81.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

12z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010101012, , BEST, 0, 130N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Blown Away]

TAFB suggests a possible storm in the NW Caribbean in 72 hours.

[GCANE]

Rain-rate is ramping up quickly.

[Cyclone1]

Well... looks like a tropical cyclone to me.

[gatorcane]

Convection blowing up nicely and it is expanding. Good chance this makes it into the nw carib

[chaser1]

This morning's satellite gives me pause to whether 98L is really becoming any further organized. Whether dry air, multiple centers or shear.....just seems somethings seems "off".

Interestingly, 98L seems to be falling out of favor with nearly all models. If the Canadian, GFS, and GFDL seem indifferent to spinning up a storm than climotology "be damned"...., something would seem to be amiss. Development issues aside, looks like the BAMS guidance has shifted more westward ( on a side note.... could someone PLEASE shoot the LBAR in the leg and put it out of its misery?? LOL ).

Finally, is it just me, or does there seem to be some ( at least temporary ) adjustment to the long wave pattern. For days, models have been advertising a fairly potent shortwave driving through the entire S.E. Conus around the 15/16 of the month. Pattern appears to be shifting with increased ridging over the Eastern U.S.

[jconsor]

6z GFS and NOGAPS, as well as the 0z Canadian do develop 98L (though it takes until the end of this week for development to occur on the Canadian).

Also, there is only one center - off the coast of Costa Rica. The convective blob near Jamaica is associated with an area of low-level convergence.

This morning's satellite gives me pause to whether 98L is really becoming any further organized. Whether dry air, multiple centers or shear.....just seems somethings seems "off".

Interestingly, 98L seems to be falling out of favor with nearly all models. If the Canadian, GFS, and GFDL seem indifferent to spinning up a storm than climotology "be damned"...., something would seem to be amiss. Development issues aside, looks like the BAMS guidance has shifted more westward ( on a side note.... could someone PLEASE shoot the LBAR in the leg and put it out of its misery?? LOL ).

Finally, is it just me, or does there seem to be some ( at least temporary ) adjustment to the long wave pattern. For days, models have been advertising a fairly potent shortwave driving through the entire S.E. Conus around the 15/16 of the month. Pattern appears to be shifting with increased ridging over the Eastern U.S.

[Aquawind]

Convection blowing up nicely and it is expanding. Good chance this makes it into the nw carib

Yep.. looks pretty good and I expect to see a 80% chance soon.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

off the coast of Costa Rica

jconsor,you meant Nicaragua right?

[HURAKAN]

10/1145 UTC 12.8N 81.3W T1.5/1.5 98L

no change

[wxman57]

This morning's satellite gives me pause to whether 98L is really becoming any further organized. Whether dry air, multiple centers or shear.....just seems somethings seems "off".

Interestingly, 98L seems to be falling out of favor with nearly all models. If the Canadian, GFS, and GFDL seem indifferent to spinning up a storm than climotology "be damned"...., something would seem to be amiss. Development issues aside, looks like the BAMS guidance has shifted more westward ( on a side note.... could someone PLEASE shoot the LBAR in the leg and put it out of its misery?? LOL ).

Finally, is it just me, or does there seem to be some ( at least temporary ) adjustment to the long wave pattern. For days, models have been advertising a fairly potent shortwave driving through the entire S.E. Conus around the 15/16 of the month. Pattern appears to be shifting with increased ridging over the Eastern U.S.

That was my impression, too, that it looks less organized today than yesterday. Perhaps the problem is the current sinking air across the region?

[HURAKAN]

you can see the center

[jconsor]

Yes.

off the coast of Costa Rica

jconsor,you meant Nicaragua right?

[chaser1]

6z GFS and NOGAPS, as well as the 0z Canadian do develop 98L (though it takes until the end of this week for development to occur on the Canadian).

[/quote]

Will keep short Mods. ( out of forum context, but just an observational response ) Ummm, I must respectfully disagree with regards to any assessment of evolving model support for 98L. 6Z GFS ( perhaps being the "most bullish" global model ) at best, now shows 150 hr. with a single closed isobar -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

...while meanwhile 0Z Nogaps simply showing a persisitant 1008mb single isobar low from 90-144 hrs., and finally the Canadian showing no organized system out to 144 hours.

Academically, I do not dispute that 98L may already "be" ( or be near ) a TD, but seemingly steering might prove land interaction to be the final demise of 98L ( or Paula ).

[jinftl]

Could the more wnw drift closer to land be part of the issue...in reality the estimated center has moved (or is estimated to be located it) 0.3W degrees of longitude and only 0.1N degrees of latitude north since last night....a west to wnw motion. Whereas the NHC mentioned last night that the system will continue to move nw, they are now saying it will continue to move wnw or nw....if the system is centerd closer to land, that could throw alot into question - which is why the models are showing outcomes in all directions.

Brings to mind the huge caveat that model runs based on a system that doesn't have an organized llc are by design going to be all over the place from run to run. If the center of such an early stage system reforms 50 miles west or east, that could have huge results in extended model runs.

This morning's satellite gives me pause to whether 98L is really becoming any further organized. Whether dry air, multiple centers or shear.....just seems somethings seems "off".

Interestingly, 98L seems to be falling out of favor with nearly all models. If the Canadian, GFS, and GFDL seem indifferent to spinning up a storm than climotology "be damned"...., something would seem to be amiss. Development issues aside, looks like the BAMS guidance has shifted more westward ( on a side note.... could someone PLEASE shoot the LBAR in the leg and put it out of its misery?? LOL ).

Finally, is it just me, or does there seem to be some ( at least temporary ) adjustment to the long wave pattern. For days, models have been advertising a fairly potent shortwave driving through the entire S.E. Conus around the 15/16 of the month. Pattern appears to be shifting with increased ridging over the Eastern U.S.

[chaser1]

Nice pick-up, wxman......I think you are right. Probably sinking air in conjunction with a near term WNW motion will spare Cuba, S. Florida, or Bahamas from risk with regards to this invest. Am thinking a "lull" after whatever 98L might quickly muster, until perhaps one final W. Caribbean attempt near the end of the month.