ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Florida1118]

any chance it could hit Yucatan?

Ask the monkey with a dart and map. We dont know what so ever.

[KWT]

Certainly can't rule out it taking a trip towards Mexico if the trough turns out to be a little weaker then forecasted, right now its just to early to call, but alot of CA in general, Cuba, S.Florida/keys and the Bahamas all need to watch this, and obviously thats an awful lot of land that needs to be aware this system is out there simmering.

[Vortex]

Looking at climatology back to the mid 1800's between October 10th-20th 2 VERY IMPORTANT benchmarks come to mind..

If this system forms S of 15N and W of 80W climatology suggest it will continue NW and if it winds up near 20N and 85W 9X out of 10 these past storms impacted western cuba/sfl... something to ponder...

[HURAKAN]

nice burst

[GCANE]

Wow, didn't take long for the hot-towers to get the anti-cyclone moved quickly to nearly over 98L.

That cell south of Jamaica is impressive.

[GCANE]

MIMIC-TPW is starting it's roll.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[expat2carib]

Almost looks like 2 different systems that are exploding simultaneously

Are the two cells part of the same system?

[dixiebreeze]

09/2345 UTC 12.7N 81.0W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic

[SouthDadeFish]

That's good enough for depression classification.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... mtccosir22

very nice loop

[GCANE]

Almost looks like 2 different systems that are exploding simultaneously

Are the two cells part of the same system?

The cell south of Jamaica is pretty far from the LLC.

Wind-field is starting to look like a TD.

[Typhoon_Willie]

With this water vapor loop it would seem that the moisture envelope with 98l is slowly moving northward. You can see it creeping up over central Cuba.

[SouthDadeFish]

How is this not a TD?

[CrazyC83]

They can't delay for persistence since a Tropical Storm Warning would be needed for the Nicaragua coast.

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 98, 2010101000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO

[expat2carib]

A Coup d'état by the cell south of Jamaica.

[GCANE]

Nice outflow channels

[hurricaneCW]

That big burst was definitely enough to give it a Code Red, I said 50% because cloud tops were warming at the time. So it could be a TD a bit earlier than Monday if it continues to get better organized, but I still say we won't see a TD until Monday.

[FLpanhandle91]

TD by 11 AM at the earliest. TS Paula within 24 hours.. What is steering this thing? High pressure to the east?

[Vortex]

I think TD by 11am after first vis in the morning..Paula by 5pm...Bullish but so is the appearance this evening backed by surface observations..IMO, we've already not that far off from a TS...