ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Huge patchs of heavy rain are refiring between Martinica and Guadeloupe... be aware islanders 97L does not move away quickly.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND EXTENDING
NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[HURAKAN]

Otto could form as soon as tomorrow

[wxman57]

Not looking tropical, though. Maybe a subtropical storm accelerating off to the NW briefly then NE and out to sea. Looks like the NHC intends to name it, as they gave themselves an 80% chance of calling it a storm now.

[KWT]

Its looking very linear to me at the moment but it is quite obvious where the center probably is. So I suspect we may see something from this soon though as I said wouldn't shock me if this turns subtropical quite soon...

[cycloneye]

For those who may not know,if this is a Subtropical Storm,it wont add ACE units for the Atlantic as those dont count ,so it will stay at 130.7825.

[HURAKAN]

05/1745 UTC 20.5N 65.6W ST1.5 97L -- Atlantic

the same as with Nicole, Dvorak sees a subtropical disturbance

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010100518, , BEST, 0, 206N, 657W, 30, 1004, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

There's no question where the center is. RECON may find Otto tomorrow

[bvigal]

Why is recon flying tomorrow, if there is no threat to any land areas?

[plasticup]

Why is recon flying tomorrow, if there is no threat to any land areas?

GFS keeps it nearish to Turks and Caicos and if the system is subtropical then its wind field will be quite broad.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

Station 41043
NDBC
Location: 21.061N 64.966W
Conditions as of:
Tue, 5 Oct 2010 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: SSE (150°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.65 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F


29.65 or 1004 mb.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot with satellite. Definitely not tropical in appearance. As for it "not affecting any land areas", I think that the people across the NE Caribbean should know that its effects extend quite far from the low-level center. Though the NE Caribbean would not get any strong sustained wind from such a development, that trailing trof may continue to produce heavy rain across PR and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands for another day or two.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[bvigal]

Why is recon flying tomorrow, if there is no threat to any land areas?

GFS keeps it nearish to Turks and Caicos and if the system is subtropical then its wind field will be quite broad.

Must be a different GFS than I'm looking at...

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... vorticity over 100

[Shuriken]

There is a very small but intense circular surface whirl at 19N/54W behind 97L apparent on visible satellite. Movement is wobbly/stationary. There must be mid-level support, otherwise the feature would not exist as the upper levels are relatively hostile.

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave