ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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#161 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:04 am

The only evidence of anything at the surface is forming near or just east of Barbados.. The area farther east is just a mid level vort. check the surface observations in that area... nothing but east and ese winds all through that area....
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#162 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:04 am

Just don't see much in the way of model support anymore with any threat to the Carib or the states. Maybe a Fish if anything becomes of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Orange)

#163 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:06 am

Weak structure and getting pulled towards the trough. D-min too.
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#164 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:09 am

The 12z GFS now seems the develop the area near barbados and has it south of PR in 3 days..
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#165 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:24 am

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 16vis.html

OMIT frames 9, 10 , 11 .... look near Barbados..
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#166 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:26 am

Image

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#167 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:46 am

Latest ASCAT shows only easterlies near 12Z best track position:
AL, 97, 2010100112, , BEST, 0, 157N, 497W, 25, 1009, DB
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#168 Postby Ladylight » Fri Oct 01, 2010 12:17 pm

I'm confused. Is 97l one, two or three of the pouches now?
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Re:

#169 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 01, 2010 12:19 pm

Ladylight wrote:I'm confused. Is 97l one, two or three of the pouches now?


at this point it really does not matter they are all interacting and and nearly indistinguishable from each other..
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Re: Re:

#170 Postby Ladylight » Fri Oct 01, 2010 12:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Ladylight wrote:I'm confused. Is 97l one, two or three of the pouches now?


at this point it really does not matter they are all interacting and and nearly indistinguishable from each other..


Thanks aric, so are they actually merged into one system now?
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#171 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 12:23 pm

Nogaps/Gfs/Nam develop the weak surface reflection near barbados....CMC develops wave/low thats further east...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Orange)

#172 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2010 12:35 pm

Down to 30%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Image
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Re: Re:

#173 Postby chrisjslucia » Fri Oct 01, 2010 12:50 pm

Ladylight wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Ladylight wrote:I'm confused. Is 97l one, two or three of the pouches now?


at this point it really does not matter they are all interacting and and nearly indistinguishable from each other..


Thanks aric, so are they actually merged into one system now?


If you check the CIMSS Predict page, it shows the position of each of the pouches: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#
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#174 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:01 pm

Image

The vorticity is more symmetrical than it was this morning
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#175 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:02 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Orange)

#176 Postby kohlejgreene » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:17 pm

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatMa ... omgsk2.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Orange)

#177 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:24 pm

This will be the biggest threat for the islands from all this mess of upper troughs combining with tropical waves, flooding and possible mudslides. For flood watches/warnings and observations from the islands,visit the Caribbean - CentralAmerica thread on link at my signature below.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Orange)

#178 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:45 pm

Aric, apart from the circulation near Barbados,if you look closely to this image, you may pickup a tiny eddy just east of Dominica (Island bellow the butterfly one, Guadeloupe)

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Orange)

#179 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 01, 2010 2:29 pm

Image
TAFB not showing 97L's low anymore, folks backing off developing 97L at least through 72 hours.
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#180 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 2:30 pm

:uarrow: thats what im watching luis..
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