ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

It's funny.. you would think the local news in Miami would already be blowing this out of proportion.. and so far.. it just seems like a non-issue... very little coverage.

That will change veeery quickly if this storm gets classified.

[WeatherGuesser]

Well, at the moment it IS a non-issue.

[GCANE]

The upper tropopause temp anomoly looks like it has consolidated some over night, I think due in large part to the large MCS firing along 80W.

Currently LLC is located farther west at 18.7N 86.1W.

AMSU analyzed core shows it is warm at 1C but a bit lower in height than a typical TC.

If heavy convection continues to fire today, I think an excellent chance this could align more vertically and should see a steady spin-up.

[Vortex]

Things coming together nicely this morning...should spin-up quickly today..Expect TS Nicole later today and warning for the FL Keys/SFL...

[GCANE]

I just ran a HYSPLIT parcel trajectory for 20N 85W.

Nice CCW twist and lift.

Looks good to go.

[Recurve]

BIG puffy fast moving cu moving up from the south through Upper Keys at sunrise. Pressure falling steadily last few days, down to 29.7 in now. Relative humidity 90%.

From Keys discussion:

Code: Select all

THE DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE KEYS DURING THIS
TIME...WITH COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE KEYS. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS/KEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE LOW THEN PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT WE WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AS VERY
HIGH PWATS ARE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THESE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY LATER TODAY...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND LIKELY WEST TO CATEGORICAL
EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S.


[GCANE]

No doubt about surface west winds.

Out of the NW at buoy 42056

Out of the SSW at buoy 42057

Surface low may be more close to the Caymans.

[Aric Dunn]

No doubt about surface west winds.

Out of the NW at buoy 42056

Out of the SSW at buoy 42057

Surface low may be more close to the Caymans.


[img]http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/maps/West_Caribbean.gif[/img


[img]http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_cwind.php?station=42056&meas=dir&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT[/img


[img]http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_cwind.php?station=42057&meas=dir&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT[/img

There is 2 vorts.. one near the caymans and the other near the buoy... satellite along with surface obs point towards this

[gatorcane]

It doesn't look like it's in any hurry to leave the caribbean

[Vortex]

6z hwrf brings strong Cat 1 over sfl..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

It doesn't look like it's in any hurry to leave the caribbean

yeah .. there is little steering right now... barely any out of the SSW...

[gatorcane]

6z hwrf brings strong Cat 1 over sfl..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hmm well this thing still has at leat 2 more days over water with hottest sets in the basin. This one could really catch people off guard if it comes through as a hurricane.

People are too used to seeing at least a 5 day cone already

[sunnyday]

Vortex,
How strong of a cat 1 over S Fl?

[Aric Dunn]

6z hwrf brings strong Cat 1 over sfl..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

yeah the HWRF is favoring the southern part to be dominate. which may very well be the case..

[plasticup]

6z hwrf brings strong Cat 1 over sfl..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Saw that, but given that it's one of the the most aggressive predictions to date I'm not too worried

[Aquawind]

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO SOUTHERN GULF AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WRAPPING SERIES
OF VORT MAXES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH PUSHING COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY WITH UPPER DRY AIR DOWN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
DEVELOPING TROPICAL FEATURE IN NW CARIB PROGGED TO MOVE N THEN NE
ALONG AND E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOVED BY STRONG JET DYNAMICS.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS TO OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF OUR CWA BUT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN FRONT AND THIS FEATURE TO ALLOW
LIKELY POPS S OF THE BAY AREA TODAY THEN FURTHER S AND SE
WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Tampa Discussion

[Vortex]

NHC sounding very bullish this morning


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Vortex]

6Z GFDL as strong as HWRF with hurricane crossing SFL 76kts while moving off se coast...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[jpigott]

6z hwrf brings strong Cat 1 over sfl..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Yuck. That run would put the SE FL metro areas (Mia, Ft Laud, WPB) on the dirty/strong side of a CAT 1.

[Blown Away]

6z hwrf brings strong Cat 1 over sfl..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hmm well this thing still has at leat 2 more days over water with hottest sets in the basin. This one could really catch people off guard if it comes through as a hurricane.

People are too used to seeing at least a 5 day cone already

For sure the SST's are ripe for rapid development and if the upper level conditions are more conducive as 96L approaches SFL this could catch folks by surprise.