ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Just looks like a big mess of clouds

[Aric Dunn]

falling rapidly.. wsw wind..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[caneman]

Sure looks like it will miss East of Florida based on what I see from the water vapor loop.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280909
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEEDED FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aric Dunn]

yeah .. just got done looking at the cayman islands winds gusting to TS force and the buoy to the south also .. lowest pressure is 1001 mb

[ColinDelia]

Station 42057. SSW 27 knots gusting to 32 knots (16.8N, 81.5W)
Station LCIY2. SSW gusting to 33 knots (16.7N, 80W)

Stations mentioned by Aric

[Madpoodle]

Bumped to 80% chance of formation about 5ish..

[Evil Jeremy]

It is starting to look like the worst of the storm will miss us to the East, but I am still preparing for excess amounts of rain and TS winds. I think it will be a close call IMO.

[KWT]

Yep upto 80% risk of formation now, it'll probably develop today but there are still plenty of regions competing for energy and I doubt this gets much stronger then 45-50kts region...still who knows these can surprise sometimes!

[Ladylight]

So KWT, you think it's unlikely to become more than a TS, right?

[SootyTern]

Folks north of Florida may want to pay attention to this storm, too..from Crown Weather:

(quote)The model guidance seems to be slowly trending towards a stronger storm for south Florida with models like the HWRF and GFDL model forecasting a borderline hurricane for south Florida. The timeline for this to occur varies on the model you look at. The HWRF model forecasts that Nicole will affect south Florida on Thursday with a possible greater hit on the eastern North Carolina coast on Saturday. The GFDL model forecasts a track that would bring the majority of the near hurricane conditions to the central and northwest Bahamas during Wednesday with a pretty significant hit on eastern North Carolina (Upper Category 2 hurricane forecast) on Thursday. In addition, the GFDL model goes so far as to forecast hurricane conditions in the coastal Mid-Atlantic states Thursday night and in New England late Thursday night into Friday.
Looking at the hurricane track models, the consensus is going for a track that takes Nicole across southeast Florida Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance are forecasting something that is a borderline hurricane with the SHIPS guidance forecasting an intensity of 70 to 75 mph and the LGEM model forecasting an intensity of 60 to 65 mph. After southeast Florida, the consensus guidance of the hurricane track models are forecasting a track that takes Nicole right over eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a Category 1 hurricane. The consensus guidance of the hurricane track models then take Nicole over southeastern Massachusetts and downeast Maine during Friday as a Category 1 hurricane. (quote)




full discussion:
http://crownweather.com/?page_id=325

[abajan]

Two questions about the latest TWO:

• Why didn’t they raise the formation potential to near 100%? (Remember, we’re talking about a whole 48 hours. Does this mean they think there’s a 20% chance that this will not become at least a TD by the end of that period?)
• If the formation potential within the next 48 hours was only increased to 80%, why not wait until 8 AM as to issue the TWO? Was there additional important information that wasn’t in the 2 AM TWO?

Just curious.

[Evil Jeremy]

I say TD (or even more likely) TS at 11AM. Even if it is not quite there by that time, it is almost certain that it will get there very soon, and people need to know to prepare now (actually yesterday).

[Evil Jeremy]

Two questions about the latest TWO:

• Why didn’t they raise the formation potential to near 100%? (Remember, we’re talking about a whole 48 hours. Does this mean they think there’s a 20% chance that this will not become at least a TD by the end of that period?)
• If the formation potential within the next 48 hours was only increased to 80%, why not wait until 8 AM as to issue the TWO? Was there additional important information that wasn’t in the 2 AM TWO?

Just curious.

My guess is they don't want to raise it by 40% all in one jump. The NHC is known for being conservative. My guess is that they wanted to raise it gradually, and will bring it to 90% or near 100% at 8AM.

Also, where exactly is the LLC forming? Last night there was talk of it being near Western Cuba, but where are they targeting it now?

[wzrgirl1]

I say TD (or even more likely) TS at 11AM. Even if it is not quite there by that time, it is almost certain that it will get there very soon, and people need to know to prepare now (actually yesterday).

I agree with you especially is TS gusts were already found according to Aric.

[Evil Jeremy]

I say TD (or even more likely) TS at 11AM. Even if it is not quite there by that time, it is almost certain that it will get there very soon, and people need to know to prepare now (actually yesterday).

I agree with you especially is TS gusts were already found according to Aric.

Not just the gusts:
"SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE"

[ColinDelia]

[*]Why didn’t they raise the formation potential to near 100%? (Remember, we’re talking about a whole 48 hours. Does this mean they think there’s a 20% chance that this will not become at least a TD by the end of that period?)

Yes. It was estimated that there is a 20% chance it will not form before 5am ET Thursday. We've all seen storms that appeared to be really close to TC formation not make it. Sometimes the unexpected happens.

What we frequently see (not always) with increasing probabilities is the 48 hour period shifting into the future. When there is a 10% chance of TC formation it is most likely to occur at the end of that period. 6 hours later the end of the previous period is now 6 hours from the end of the period and depending on the situation the probability can increase.

There is information out there on what % of the time 80% forecast periods became TCs and not. I have a busy morning and don't have time to look for it right his sec.
I think it is on the NHC site? Surely you will find not all 80% forecasts ended with a TC within 48 hours (one might have formed after that still)

[AdamFirst]

I guess they're waiting for the first visible satellite shots to see if this thing has truly formed. But I agree, we'll have an established tropical cyclone sometime today...

[jlauderdal]

JB tweet

BTW... watch the Caribbean this weekend and next week. Not done yet.. Should be 4-6 more names Oct 1 on!


JB has been good the last few weeks with sniffing out this pattern, gfs, euro have been really good with this system, i have been rough on models beyond 72h but they were excellent this go around, might still be off but did very well with the overall idea in a very complex setup

[tgenius]

It's funny.. you would think the local news in Miami would already be blowing this out of proportion.. and so far.. it just seems like a non-issue... very little coverage.