ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Few days ago some thought the GFS was nuts with this signficant trof for this time of the year. It was on the money.

[AtlanticWind]

I say we get very little weather out of this even here in SE Florida as this will most likely be a Bahama momma.That trough is digging down so much that its going to force 96L to move nore NE rather than N or NNE.


The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on What ? The models dont reflect this at this time. maybe they will change but there is nothing base that on right now.

I glad you asked that look at the water vapor loop and that trough is still diggging SE and the dry line is slowly advancing east. Notice the flow across Florida is not South to North but SW to NE thats why I feel this might be a non event for SE Florida. I'm willing to bet the NWS will lower the rainfall rates to mabe an inch.if I'm wrong I'll give you my address and you can serve me crow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

I do see the trough but i think it is about to stall based on the models. but even if I am right I wont serve you crow

[boca]

Good point about fronts never making it this far south which I would agree with you 99% of the time.The 1% had this cuoff low dive Seward towards Alambama and Georgia which is driving the trough really far south which will force 96L away from Florida.

[AtlanticWind]

Good point about fronts never making it this far south which I would agree with you 99% of the time.The 1% had this cuoff low dive Seward towards Alambama and Georgia which is driving the trough really far south which will force 96L away from Florida.

The trough diving this far south is what will drive this into eastern florida , look at the water vapor the flow is from the south ton the NNE.

[boca]

I'd like to see the water vapor tomorrow morning to see if it stops progressing east like you said whichwould change everything I said, but I still think this trough has enough push to atleast deflect this into the bahamas as of now.

[Aric Dunn]

Well we will know in the morning.. no need for anymore speculations tonight... morning visible will help determine where the LLC developed and also how fast the Low over the SE is moving North. if its faster than the models then things may change a little. right now our invest is still not moving and time is running out..

[boca]

I see the most turning Between the Isle of Youth and Cozumel.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[45NWOrlando]

You know what's ridiculous? We've been watching this thing supposedly going to develop for well over a week and it went from going to really pack a wallop to being just a torrential rain event to maybe just a few passing clouds to our east. The NWS really blew the forecast for the Orlando area today as well. We were supposed to have an 80% chance of rain today, (eight-zero!), as in just 20% less than guaranteed rain and I got not one freaking drop here at my house, not even a trace! I turned off my irrigation system this weekend expecting big rains and my lawn is down right crispy. I know long range models are for the birds, but apparently short range models can prove to be completely wrong too. Sorry for the rant, now back to our regularly scheduled disorganized blob gazing.

The rainfall coverage forecast, from southeast to northwest across central Florida was 40% to 60% from late morning through early evening.

[dwsqos2]

I'm pretty much convinced now that this will never achieve the convective organization required for classification. Oh well.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lester]

I'm pretty much convinced now that this will never achieve the convective organization required for classification. Oh well.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

lol don't make 96L mad like you did matthew

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

42057 - MARITIME-buoy
Tuesday Sep. 28 - 4:50 UTC
Air Temperature: 84°F
Dewpoint: 78°F
Wind: SSW at 31 mph
          gusting to 36
Pressure: 1005.2 mb
Wave Height: 8 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.9°F

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W...
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND FROM THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISTHMUS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N87W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. RESIDENTS IN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[dwsqos2]

I'm pretty much convinced now that this will never achieve the convective organization required for classification. Oh well.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

lol don't make 96L mad like you did matthew

OT, but my call for Matthew was a less than 50 knot peak. Its peak was 45 knots; how is that a bad call?

The CMC is completely strung-out. That's not a good sign if one wants to see a tc, especially considering that this is precisely the kind of thing the CMC overdoes (i.e. baroclinically enhanced things).

[HURAKAN]

752
ABNT20 KNHC 280548
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE...UPPER-AIR...AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[AtlanticWind]

60 Percent chance now

[HURAKAN]

OT, but my call for Matthew was a less than 50 knot peak. It's peak was 45 knots; how is that a bad call?

According to Best Track, it was 50 knots

[dwsqos2]

Ok, fine a 5 knot bust, is that terrible?

[Brent]

AL, 96, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 191N, 850W, 30, 1003, LO

[fci]

What is the preoccupation with being "right"?
All you guys are doing is guessing, you don't know what is going to happen.
Does it make you feel "special" if you guess right?
Is this a GAME to you?
If it makes you feel any better or helps you, I think you are very "special" and we all wish we were as "special" as you since sometimes you guess correctly!