ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[artist]

Thanks artist. We are pretty ready and also have shutters that close in 10 minutes which we got after the two storms of 2004 hit us. We were glad to have them for Wilma. I've become gluten free since then for health reasons, so there's a little more prep and less things that stay edible for long periods. I just want to make sure we've got what we need.

Sure looks like it could rain torrentially before the weekend. Now if we do get a wind event, it looks like it would move away quickly, right?

in the next couple of days Derek is saying for this first round with the rains-

Tropical storm force winds are also possible late Wednesday as the low moves near or over the area.

and then for the one later , this weekend possibly or later, if at all, we will just have to see how it is coming together. I know its not much help, but hope it helps some.

[Aquawind]

Looking at the advancng front and dry air it seems like this system will be a issue for the east coast of Forida and more of an issue for the Bahamas.. It is clearing things out well in the GOM and it's going to be a haves and have nots for Florida..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[dwsqos2]

I wonder if this will ever meet the somewhat arbitrary convective definition of tc.

[AtlanticWind]

if you run the western atlantic loop and click on NCEP fronts they now have a 1000 mb low just off the coast of the yucatan.

[Aric Dunn]

The whole vortex with this is very broad as seen in 850mb vorticity / MIMIC-TPW convergence and UL troposphere temp anomoly.

One thing that would help this spin up is to have the anti-cyclone move over the LLC.

That would force the dynamic tropopause to raise over the LLC and stretch the vortex column.

Because of conservation of potential vorticity, that in turn should cause the core to consolidate and spin faster.

One factor that may help along the way is the moisture column is deepening right around the LLC.

High rain-rate cells have fired over the Yucatan, which should push the anticyclone east toward 96L due to latent heating of the upper troposphere.

Maybe tomorrow with DMAX in the morning and later in the day with solar heating of the cirrus around the LLC, enough diabatic heating could get the anti-cyclone directly over the LLC.

If that happens, it should be off to the races, especially given the good looking outflow that is already in place.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif


[img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/winds/wgEvor850-0.GIF[/img


[img]http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/predict/2010/2010PGI48L/2010PGI48L0927_1942_xsect.gif[/img


[img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/winds/wgEshr-0.GIF[/img

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/small_size/20100927.2326.f17.x.rain.96LINVEST.25kts-1003mb-186N-867W.72pc.jpg{/img

[img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/winds/wgEuw-0.GIF[/im]

Good analysis.. A couple of the model indicate a fairly co-located upper high at least in the short term before it enters the southern gulf.

[Vortex]

145Z..more pronounced curved banding to the east..popcorn convective bursts over and around the LLC...these should should eventually come together as one symetrical convective burst and then things begin to take shape...


http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[blp]

Still waiting for something nominal to develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html

It is really not going to take much to get this to strengthen quickly. Pressures are really low right now and wind shear is light. Once we get that deep convective spark, pressure will drop quickly. We still have 48 hours as per the 18z GFS until it gets closer to the U.S. This will be an eternity for it to develop. I think we are close and by this time tomorrow we will have a developed system.

[cpdaman]

ehhh 48 hours but the "small island" of cuba to cross and interact with.....not much time and not much open ocean.

[Aric Dunn]

The bouy south of the western tip of Cuba is reporting NNE wind suggesting the there is a LLC just to the south of the bouy. Considering we are getting increasing convection in that general area I would say we nearly have a well defined circ. by morning it should be very close to a TD

[gatorcane]

How about the convection south of western Cuba. Looks like convection is consolidating

[AtlanticWind]

How about the convection south of western Cuba. Looks like convection is consolidating

The real action is west of that with the 1000 mb low . this is the area to watch tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

LLC seems to be developing right over or near that buoy

SSD site finally has the Floater up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


and check out the water temp at that buoy.. hello hot tub..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[Vortex]

The bouy south of the western tip of Cuba is reporting NNE wind suggesting the there is a LLC just to the south of the bouy. Considering we are getting increasing convection in that general area I would say we nearly have a well defined circ. by morning it should be very close to a TD

Aric do you have a link to that buoy?

[Vortex]

SSD site finally has the Floater up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


and check out the water temp at that buoy.. hello hot tub..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

neverminf, thanks

[CalmBeforeStorm]

How about the convection south of western Cuba. Looks like convection is consolidating

The real action is west of that with the 1000 mb low . this is the area to watch tonight.

You can clearly see a turning right there in this shortwave loop. This is the spot and it's coming together.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ir2.html

[gatorcane]

How about the convection south of western Cuba. Looks like convection is consolidating

The real action is west of that with the 1000 mb low . this is the area to watch tonight.

You can clearly see a turning right there in this shortwave loop. This is the spot and it's coming together.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ir2.html

I see dry air and wind shear pushing into the southern gom and now heading down the yucatan peninsula......not sure if anything can get going there.

[Vortex]

NE winds over the little island south of western cuba...


79 °F
Thunderstorm
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.70 in (Rising)

[Vortex]

Looks to be about 80 miles ssw of the isle of youth...IR2 shows up well...

[Aric Dunn]

NE winds over the little island south of western cuba...


79 °F
Thunderstorm
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.70 in (Rising)

its called the Isle of youth..

[gatorcane]

Looks to be about 80 miles ssw of the isle of youth...IR2 shows up well...

You mean the possible new low forming? It may just form there.

If so a lot of this is heading to the Bahamas and east of Florida and over the gulf stream. Thank you westerly shear.