ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[artist]

most models(take those with a grain of salt) depict this going EAST of s. fl.

Not really. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and CMC models take this into SFL. Only the BAMs really move this away from the coast, and we know how bad they are to begin with.

then BAMS are really only good for the deep tropical atlantic, thus why they aren't realiable in this case.

[Ladylight]

If it becomes an actual storm, when would it be most likely to be around SE Fl? Friday or this weekend?

[Aquawind]

ULL to the North is lifting out and yet the frontal boundry is getting close to the Yukatan. The front is starting to draw the moisture northward. It will be interesting to see how far the front gets tonight..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

The Keys are getting some of the moisture already..

[Evil Jeremy]

There are a lot of different opinions on what will happen. Some calling for a non event, some saying moderate TS, and some saying even a hurricane is possible for SFL. Lots of uncertainty here, with the clock ticking down. If there is a hurricane bearing down on Florida in 48 hours (which I don't think will happen), there is little time for people to prepare.

[Vortex]

Belize a few hours ago had very low pressures...It won't take much once this circulation closes off to ramp up to nicole..


77 °F
Thunderstorm Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.62 in (Falling)

[ObsessedMiami]

There are a lot of different opinions on what will happen. Some calling for a non event, some saying moderate TS, and some saying even a hurricane is possible for SFL. Lots of uncertainty here, with the clock ticking down. If there is a hurricane bearing down on Florida in 48 hours (which I don't think will happen), there is little time for people to prepare.

And worse, if it does come, preps will have to be made in torrential downpours.

[blp]

No kidding... its either sandbags or shutters, both or nothing. Tomorrow will be decision day on which option. I think we are going to get something out of this and most people don't have a clue so this will catch most people of guard.

There are a lot of different opinions on what will happen. Some calling for a non event, some saying moderate TS, and some saying even a hurricane is possible for SFL. Lots of uncertainty here, with the clock ticking down. If there is a hurricane bearing down on Florida in 48 hours (which I don't think will happen), there is little time for people to prepare.

[Florida1118]

[psyclone]

this thing still looks awful IMO. the best convection is over land in the yuc and northern belize. it will be interesting to see if it can burst tonight but so far it has failed to impress and i'm not sure it ever will. i think most of florida will ultimately get little from this with the possible exception of the southeast coast which may get into the heavy rain and the associated flood threat. tough to imagine any meaningful wind threat for anyone. as always things can change quickly but thus far they haven't.

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[cpdaman]

look at that TCHP map....this invest is dancing on dy-no-mite.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0269at.jpg

[Florida1118]

I swear Accuweather...going over board a bit? From This Fri-NEXT Sun, Winds gusting over or at 40mph? 9 days with strong winds...

[artist]

There are a lot of different opinions on what will happen. Some calling for a non event, some saying moderate TS, and some saying even a hurricane is possible for SFL. Lots of uncertainty here, with the clock ticking down. If there is a hurricane bearing down on Florida in 48 hours (which I don't think will happen), there is little time for people to prepare.

And worse, if it does come, preps will have to be made in torrential downpours.

that has been my thought. I don't have a feeling one way or the other, but IF, then there is going to be little time for those not following this to prepare, if it pulls itself together.

Ladylight, I think the GFS is showing late this weekend.

[blp]

Carnival Triumph right over our area of interest. 1 1/2 hours ago....


2010-Sep-28 00:00 N 18°54' W 086°42' 57 14.2 300 2 1001.0

WNW winds....

[tgenius]

There are a lot of different opinions on what will happen. Some calling for a non event, some saying moderate TS, and some saying even a hurricane is possible for SFL. Lots of uncertainty here, with the clock ticking down. If there is a hurricane bearing down on Florida in 48 hours (which I don't think will happen), there is little time for people to prepare.

And worse, if it does come, preps will have to be made in torrential downpours.

that has been my thought. I don't have a feeling one way or the other, but IF, then there is going to be little time for those not following this to prepare, if it pulls itself together.

Ladylight, I think the GFS is showing late this weekend.

It looks by most model accounts this will be a rain event... that said.. if it does become a wind event.. this is where I smile at the $3k I dropped in Accordion Shuters in 2008.

[artist]

Derek's latest tonight-

2 cyclones possible in Caribbean
Posted 9/27/2010 8:06 PM EDT on pnj.com Prod
Showers and storms have increased in the western Caribbean associated with the monsoon trough. However, there is not a well-defined center at the surface. Conditions are favorable for further development for about 24-36 hours as the system moves slowly to the north-northeast. However, once it crosses Cuba, strong upper level southwesterly winds are expected. This would create a strong shearing environment and would limit development. At this time, I do not expect it to cause weakening because there will be forcing from the trough to the west. That said, the chances of this system becoming a hurricane are significantly lower than yesterday. In fact, any development may not be tropical in nature. Given the shear, there is some chance that the system would be subtropical.

The greatest threat at this time is torrential rainfall, flooding, and tornadoes for Cuba and South Florida. Heavy rains are expected for South Florida starting late tomorrow or early Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds are also possible late Wednesday as the low moves near or over the area.

The models are still developing a second cyclone in the northwest Caribbean near the end of the week. This second cyclone may be more intense than the initial cyclone. Guidance tends to keep it lingering in the Caribbean for a few days under favorable environmental conditions. This second system is the type that needs to be monitored very closely this time of year as cyclones often undergo rapid intensification in the northwest Caribbean this time of year.

[SouthFLTropics]

Carnival Triumph right over our area of interest. 1 1/2 hours ago....


2010-Sep-28 00:00 N 18°54' W 086°42' 57 14.2 300 2 1001.0

Nothing like taking a cruise right through the middle of a developing tropical system!

SFT

[SouthFloridawx]

Still waiting for something nominal to develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html

[Ladylight]

Thanks artist. We are pretty ready and also have shutters that close in 10 minutes which we got after the two storms of 2004 hit us. We were glad to have them for Wilma. I've become gluten free since then for health reasons, so there's a little more prep and less things that stay edible for long periods. I just want to make sure we've got what we need.

Sure looks like it could rain torrentially before the weekend. Now if we do get a wind event, it looks like it would move away quickly, right?

[blp]

Background pressures are really low. I can't remember 1001mb pressure and nothing of real substance. Also noticed the WNW winds.... It is slowly getting going.....

Carnival Triumph right over our area of interest. 1 1/2 hours ago....


2010-Sep-28 00:00 N 18°54' W 086°42' 57 14.2 300 2 1001.0

Nothing like taking a cruise right through the middle of a developing tropical system!

SFT

[GCANE]

The whole vortex with this is very broad as seen in 850mb vorticity / MIMIC-TPW convergence and UL troposphere temp anomoly.

One thing that would help this spin up is to have the anti-cyclone move over the LLC.

That would force the dynamic tropopause to raise over the LLC and stretch the vortex column.

Because of conservation of potential vorticity, that in turn should cause the core to consolidate and spin faster.

One factor that may help along the way is the moisture column is deepening right around the LLC.

High rain-rate cells have fired over the Yucatan, which should push the anticyclone east toward 96L due to latent heating of the upper troposphere.

Maybe tomorrow with DMAX in the morning and later in the day with solar heating of the cirrus around the LLC, enough diabatic heating could get the anti-cyclone directly over the LLC.

If that happens, it should be off to the races, especially given the good looking outflow that is already in place.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif










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