ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Rainband]

anyone notice the upper level low to the east of florida?? Interesting

[Vortex]

IMO, there is also going to be a higher than normal tornado threat across the keys and se coast of fl...The shear profile looks favorable wednesday and wednesday evening across SE Florida...

[ObsessedMiami]

I feel for the NHC because you can't warn people with no storm but at the same time, it could ramp up quickly leaving residents with no time to prepare. This one is tough. I guess that is why they get paid the big bucks.

Well its not like it can ramp up to a major like Karl W/ the conditions N of Cuba. But they can Issue Flood Watches a day or so early, as well as HWO...So as long as they have SOMETHING mentioning "Hey, be aware a TC might form W/ flooding rain" or "Monitor the NHC for..." thats pretty good info to look out.

Let's cancel schools while we are at it (says the teacher)

[artist]

from PREDICTS discussion tonight-

...PGI50L: As of 1700 UTC, PGI50L was located at 17.9 N, 89.8 W.
Note, however, that extreme caution should be exercised when
considering the location of this pouch today. At the
initialization time of 0000 UTC, the pouch that is being tracked
as PGI50L was still south of the Bay of Campeche in association
with the remnants of Matthew. A more representative analysis of
the location of PGI50L, including the uncertainty therein,
encompasses the area bounded by 11-21 N and 80-95 W amidst the
larger-scale monsoon gyre feature across the region (image 3). A
synthesis of available surface observations and across the
northwestern Caribbean today suggest that maximum sustained
surface winds are near 25 kt and that the minimum sea level
pressure is approximately 1004 hPa (image 3).

Three areas of deep convection are noted in association with
PGI50L: that associated with the remnant mid-tropospheric
circulation of Matthew between the Bay of Campeche and the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, a localized area of deep convection near 19 N,
84.5 W, and a widespread area of intense organized convection
along 81 W between 13-19 N. NCAR/NSF G-V dropsondes from a
survey of this region indicate the presence of a 700 hPa
convergence axis/trough along 18 N between the latter two areas
of convection (not shown). At the surface, both an ASCAT
overpass analysis from approx. 0320 UTC (image 4) and available
surface observations (image 3) indicate the presence of broad
cyclonic curvature to the near-surface wind field associated
with PGI50L somewhat to the southwest of that analyzed by the
G-V dropsondes. PGI50L is located underneath an east-west
elongated subtropical ridge centered near the southern Bay of
Campeche. Aloft, substantial upper tropospheric diffluence is
noted along with deep layer vertical wind shear of approximately
15-20 kt out of the north/northwest on the eastern periphery of
the upper anticyclone (not shown)...

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... t=Get+Data

[Aquawind]

We had a Tornado warning today already..

[sfwx]

I feel for the NHC because you can't warn people with no storm but at the same time, it could ramp up quickly leaving residents with no time to prepare. This one is tough. I guess that is why they get paid the big bucks.

Well its not like it can ramp up to a major like Karl W/ the conditions N of Cuba. But they can Issue Flood Watches a day or so early, as well as HWO...So as long as they have SOMETHING mentioning "Hey, be aware a TC might form W/ flooding rain" or "Monitor the NHC for..." thats pretty good info to look out.

Let's cancel schools while we are at it (says the teacher)

I agree!! ( says the teacher ) BUT, I always hate the "makeup" days later in the year.

Eric

[artist]

I feel for the NHC because you can't warn people with no storm but at the same time, it could ramp up quickly leaving residents with no time to prepare. This one is tough. I guess that is why they get paid the big bucks.

Well its not like it can ramp up to a major like Karl W/ the conditions N of Cuba. But they can Issue Flood Watches a day or so early, as well as HWO...So as long as they have SOMETHING mentioning "Hey, be aware a TC might form W/ flooding rain" or "Monitor the NHC for..." thats pretty good info to look out.

here in south Florida they sort of have, here is a link that shows you pretty much all of Miami's watch area has, click on the hazardous weather outlook, and the hydrologic outlook.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 0.4396&e=0

[Florida1118]

Let's cancel schools while we are at it (says the teacher)

Oh I want a Day off too! The make up days...You can keep those.

[cycloneye]

Ok peeps,lets not deviate from the 96L topic.

[Florida1118]

I feel for the NHC because you can't warn people with no storm but at the same time, it could ramp up quickly leaving residents with no time to prepare. This one is tough. I guess that is why they get paid the big bucks.

Well its not like it can ramp up to a major like Karl W/ the conditions N of Cuba. But they can Issue Flood Watches a day or so early, as well as HWO...So as long as they have SOMETHING mentioning "Hey, be aware a TC might form W/ flooding rain" or "Monitor the NHC for..." thats pretty good info to look out.

here in south Florida they sort of have, here is a link that shows you pretty much all of Miami's watch area has, click on the hazardous weather outlook, and the hydrologic outlook.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 0.4396&e=0

Tampa NWS Cancels their HWO at 4 or so, I never really have time to read it by the time I get home. I know NWS Miami, Jacksonville, and Key west Mention it in their HWO, but Tampa has not been really talking about it...Other than in the discussion.

[cyclonic chronic]

this could be a non-event for s. fl.,.most if not all the convection will be severly sheared to the east. most models(take those with a grain of salt) depict this going EAST of s. fl. so a sheared system would have convection out over the bahamas or open atl. keep in mind that this is forecast to become extra-tropical really fast. yeah, yeah, interaction with fronts SOMETIMES makes t.s. or hurricanes stronger but that takes time. this has not alot of time. i look for the next system(IF it happens) to be a REAL threat. just my opinion, i think the models are shooting dope, just like they do almost all the time from more than 3 days out

[Evil Jeremy]

most models(take those with a grain of salt) depict this going EAST of s. fl.

Not really. The GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and CMC models take this into SFL. Only the BAMs really move this away from the coast, and we know how bad they are to begin with.

[Aquawind]

Yep.. I do hope we get some rain..not sure if the totals will really add up here in sw florida..

[gatorcane]

Starting to look somewhat elongated sw to ne......maybe I am seeing things?

I say 60% by next advisory.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what do you think of this position?

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, AL, 96, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 186N, 867W, 25, 1003, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

yeah thats fits well with surface obs actually and visible from earlier.

[Florida1118]

Starting to look somewhat elongated sw to ne......

I say 60% by next advisory.

Is there anyway to know who is on duty at 2am?

[artist]

Tampa NWS Cancels their HWO at 4 or so, I never really have time to read it by the time I get home. I know NWS Miami, Jacksonville, and Key west Mention it in their HWO, but Tampa has not been really talking about it...Other than in the discussion.

it could be because of how far this cool front is supposed to reach. Here is from Tampa's NWS office forecast discussion issued at 12:46PM today -

BY TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN CARRIBEAN. THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED NORTH BY THE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WHILE DISCREPANCIES STILL
EXIST...THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS STALLING THE
FRONT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING THE
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... ion#AFDTBW

[sunnyday]

I, too, am expecting a non event for S. Fl.
This is not a prediction of any kind.

[Aric Dunn]

I, too, am expecting a non event for S. Fl.
This is not a prediction of any kind.

will it rain? answer yes... so it is an event.. lol

[Vortex]

Whats concerning is the 200mb at H54 has weaker shear and out of the SSW right along the SE coast of FL and much lighter right offshore . The cyclone will be moving NNE at that time likely so the shear may not have that significant of an impact. In fact, this set-up is similar to Irene and to a degree Irene was intensifying while passing through SFL.....This is not the directional shear that's the kiss of death for storms..Not by a long shot...


NAM 200mn at H54


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif