Wow, No Active Systems! How Long Has It Been?

[abajan]

At 5.00 p.m. the last advisory was issued on Lisa. How many weeks has it been since there have been no active tropical systems in the Atlantic? Feels like a lifetime!

[Cyclone1]

Since before Danielle formed?

[wzrgirl1]

All in due time.....

[jinftl]

Even the hyper-active 2005 featured gaps between development:

- Ophelia formed on 9/6, the next system, Phillippe, didn't develop until 9/17

- Rita formed on 9/18, the next system, Stan, didn't develop until 10/2

- Vince formed on 10/6, the next system, Wilma, didn't develop until 10/17


By comparison, it has only been 3 days since Matthew formed....not sure we will have to wait as long as the dates above between storms this season...Nicole may be born this week.

[somethingfunny]

I'm of the opinion that Julia is actually a tropical storm right at this moment.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Will you eat your sock if it is not?

[Shuriken]

I'm of the opinion that Julia is actually a tropical storm right at this moment.

I'm of the opinion that Julia is at least a TD, the "Pouch" (who comes up with these names? ) thing in the central Atlantic ought to be an Invest already, and that Matthew should, given its location, remain a tracked TD until either the circulation or convection is clearly gone (at present it still possess both).

[southerngale]

From Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog:

Posted: 8:26 AM EDT on September 27, 2010
Dr. Jeff Masters

Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

*think he meant five major hurricanes

[Category 5]

First quiet day since august 20th. What a run. Btw, it may not last long.

[CrazyC83]

Unless 96L can form into a TD or TS before midnight...

[Ptarmigan]

These tropical systems are just like cockroaches. They just keep coming and when you think they are gone, they just keep coming at ya.

[ConvergenceZone]

The truth is, the tropics are slowing down. All you have to do is pull up a map of the Atlantic, Carib and Gulf to see that... There's been the threat of something forming in the Carib, but so far nothing.

CV season is probably over, which is why the Atlantic activity has come to a stand still...

There may be a couple of more carib storms and perhaps a storm or maybe 2 in the gulf before the season is over..... The season will be winding down over the next 4 weeks...

[Ad Novoxium]

Amazingly, just one small period like this produced more activity as a whole than all of 2006 and 2009 did operationally.

[Cyclone1]

Welp.

That lull was fun while it lasted.

[Ladylight]

Okay, no active storms again now Nicole has had her las advisory. Anyone taking bets as to how long this lull will last? Lol. A week?

[northjaxpro]

Okay, no active storms again now Nicole has had her las advisory. Anyone taking bets as to how long this lull will last? Lol. A week?

I'll take a stab or go out on a limb here. I think we will see another system develop within the next five days. The monsoonal trough is established in the Western Caribbean along with the heightened MJO over the remainder of the SW Atlantic basin. All of that energy and instability in place should spin up another cyclone somewhere down there within 120 hours.

[gilbert88]

The truth is, the tropics are slowing down. All you have to do is pull up a map of the Atlantic, Carib and Gulf to see that... There's been the threat of something forming in the Carib, but so far nothing.

CV season is probably over, which is why the Atlantic activity has come to a stand still...

There may be a couple of more carib storms and perhaps a storm or maybe 2 in the gulf before the season is over..... The season will be winding down over the next 4 weeks...

Are you for real? I think that every single time that there are no named storms on the Atlantic basin you have come to this board to declare the season over.

[Andrew92]

Actually, with a lot of talk about a potential biggie in the Caribbean this month sometime, how about we take a look at a decent "average" date for this to happen?

Hurricanes that have formed between now and the last day of October in the Caribbean (not just the depression, the storm becomes a hurricane there) have included, since 1995:

Roxanne in 1995 (October 10, took 60 hours)
Lili in 1996 (October 17, took 72 hours)
Mitch in 1998 (October 24, took 54 hours)
Keith in 2000 (September 30, took 42 hours)
Iris in 2001 (October 6, took 54 hours)
Wilma in 2005 (October 18, took 66 hours)
Beta in 2005 (October 29, took 60 hours)
Omar in 2008 (October 14, took 42 hours)

With the hurricanes I plugged in, the average date for a first hurricane forming in the Caribbean after this date if about October 12 (I omitted Beta when putting that together, though with that it's still October 14). The average time it takes for the system to intensify from a developing tropical depression to a hurricane (now including Beta) is about 54-60 hours. You may also note I left out Irene from 1999, because Irene did not actually become a hurricane in the Caribbean, but came darn close. Irene became a hurricane on the Gulf of Mexico side of Cuba, just before striking Florida (for what it's worth, she took 48 hours to go from depression to hurricane, which doesn't affect the average at all).

Therefore, while some may say the hurricane season is ending, what this illustrates is that it's actually far from over. In fact, if you pay close attention, only two of those storms are within the next seven days, Keith and Iris. When taking those two out, the average date is about October 18. So for those wondering about when that "big one" will come that quite a few are expecting, well it's not even October yet. Even so, the odds are that it probably won't come until about the middle part of the month.

Keep watching to see if it comes sooner than the middle part, but it may take until about then to happen, if it does.

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

Actually, with a lot of talk about a potential biggie in the Caribbean this month sometime, how about we take a look at a decent "average" date for this to happen?

Hurricanes that have formed between now and the last day of October in the Caribbean (not just the depression, the storm becomes a hurricane there) have included, since 1995:

Roxanne in 1995 (October 10, took 60 hours)
Lili in 1996 (October 17, took 72 hours)
Mitch in 1998 (October 24, took 54 hours)
Keith in 2000 (September 30, took 42 hours)
Iris in 2001 (October 6, took 54 hours)
Wilma in 2005 (October 18, took 66 hours)
Beta in 2005 (October 29, took 60 hours)
Omar in 2008 (October 14, took 42 hours)

With the hurricanes I plugged in, the average date for a first hurricane forming in the Caribbean after this date if about October 12 (I omitted Beta when putting that together, though with that it's still October 14). The average time it takes for the system to intensify from a developing tropical depression to a hurricane (now including Beta) is about 54-60 hours. You may also note I left out Irene from 1999, because Irene did not actually become a hurricane in the Caribbean, but came darn close. Irene became a hurricane on the Gulf of Mexico side of Cuba, just before striking Florida (for what it's worth, she took 48 hours to go from depression to hurricane, which doesn't affect the average at all).

Therefore, while some may say the hurricane season is ending, what this illustrates is that it's actually far from over. In fact, if you pay close attention, only two of those storms are within the next seven days, Keith and Iris. When taking those two out, the average date is about October 18. So for those wondering about when that "big one" will come that quite a few are expecting, well it's not even October yet. Even so, the odds are that it probably won't come until about the middle part of the month.

Keep watching to see if it comes sooner than the middle part, but it may take until about then to happen, if it does.

-Andrew92

That's a great post. I also think it will be mid October as well. I am going to say oct. 12 in the western Caribbean.

[Ladylight]

NHS said tonight there's another wave coming off Africa in the next day or two, and there are two out there right now. That doesn't sound like the CV season is over to me at all.

As for Caribbean storms, I remember when everyone was saying that was slowing down and just about done, and then hello Wilma and beta!

I'm with northjax and Andrew. We still have two more high risk weeks, at least.

Thanks for the thoughts everyone. Great research Andrew, thanks so much for doing that. It's truly a reality check.