Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[caneseddy]

AJC,

WHat are you expecting out of this;it would be nice to have dome pro met opinion on what's going to transpire next week

[Vortex]

00Z models begin in 1 hour with NAM leading off....

[SouthFloridawx]

A lot of moisture in the Caribbean tonight. That upper level low creating a lot of showers and thunderstorms. Nogaps was showing something developing to the East of Jamaica. I wonder if this is where that energy might originate from? Good thing that Matthew didn't have more time over the water. Probably would have been much more serious than it was.

[Blown Away]

A lot of moisture in the Caribbean tonight. That upper level low creating a lot of showers and thunderstorms. Nogaps was showing something developing to the East of Jamaica. I wonder if this is where that energy might originate from? Good thing that Matthew didn't have more time over the water. Probably would have been much more serious than it was.

I know the low will likely develop near the Honduras north coast, but my eye is drawn to the rotation SE of Jamaica.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[AJC3]

AJC,

WHat are you expecting out of this; it would be nice to have dome pro met opinion on what's going to transpire next week

Honestly? I can't say too much with a heck of a lot of confidence at this point. I'm certainly not going to get into any specifics....much, much too early, especially given the variance in model solutions, and somewhat sketchy continuity.

I mean, seriously...you have operational model runs at odds with their respective ensembles....Not good for forecast confidence! You have solutions from the global op-models that differ in strength, placement, and speed of whatever comes out of the Caribbean....Again, not confidence-inspiring.

What you want to look at is the big picture and forecast with a broad brush this early in the game. Let's look at what I would consider the most salient points - what we DO have somewhat of a consensus on.

(1) Some sort of low pressure forming in the western Caribbean
(2) It will probably have a large circulation;
(3) Rather slow development [likely a function of (2), given the favorable conditions in the NW Caribbean];
(4) Solutions that in general, tend to bracket the state of Florida;
(5) A boatload of QPF is in the model fields - no surprise here;
(6) Baroclinic interaction late in the game (north of 25N, and likely even moreso up near 30N)

What can you take from all that? Well, probably not a heck of a lot more than I spelled out. It seems there's a better than average chance this will pass, at the very least, close to Florida, in whatever form it takes.

While (2) and (3) often suggest that a rapid spinup is not as likely, I wouldn't put any money on that given the high oceanic heat content of the NW Caribbean and the seemingly favorable conditions aloft. The system will likely be very wet, given it's projected size and slow movement early on. However, we can't be sure where the heaviest rain will fall (though Cuba and the Caymans look to be under the gun).

You can try and get more specific than that, but until there's a better consensus, and continuity (which isn't gonna happen until this thing starts to spin up in a few days), you'll just be setting yourself up for error. I wouldn't dream of trying to differentiate forecasting a weak TS versus a major hurricane, 2-5 inches versus 10+ for any particular area, or what kind of wind, surge or tornadic threat there might or might not be at this point.

[cycloneye]

Thank you Tony for posting that brief rundown about this complex situation. Very interesting days and long nights ahead are instored for us.

[OuterBanker]

Well, the latest GFS doesn't really seem to make any powerfull system (except as a fish in 2 wks).

But it does train mutiple systems up the coast from se fla to nc.

Won't have to board up, maybe I should start on the ark though.

[sfwx]

Thank you AJC! I appreciate your informative posts. I have a big gathering next weekend that I have been planning for quite some time so I'm a little on edge!

Eric

[coonieislandfl]

Hi, all. I've been reading your threads for the past few days, and I sure appreciate all the great info. I'm in NE Florida, and am getting quite concerned. The local news is talking about the system that's going to form in the Carib. and move north or NE. Also NWS Jacksonville is talking about it.Their latest reads:

.LONG TERM (TUE THROUGH FRI)...EYES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AND LOCAL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

I've never heard of a storm that hasn't formed yet being talked about this much by weather and news. Are we talking flooding of epic proportions? Also looks like on some runs that another system is behind the one we're talking about now. Scary!

[gatorcane]

AJC,

WHat are you expecting out of this; it would be nice to have dome pro met opinion on what's going to transpire next week

Honestly? I can't say too much with a heck of a lot of confidence at this point. I'm certainly not going to get into any specifics....much, much too early, especially given the variance in model solutions, and somewhat sketchy continuity.

I mean, seriously...you have operational model runs at odds with their respective ensembles....Not good for forecast confidence! You have solutions from the global op-models that differ in strength, placement, and speed of whatever comes out of the Caribbean....Again, not confidence-inspiring.

What you want to look at is the big picture and forecast with a broad brush this early in the game. Let's look at what I would consider the most salient points - what we DO have somewhat of a consensus on.

(1) Some sort of low pressure forming in the western Caribbean
(2) It will probably have a large circulation;
(3) Rather slow development [likely a function of (2), given the favorable conditions in the NW Caribbean];
(4) Solutions that in general, tend to bracket the state of Florida;
(5) A boatload of QPF is in the model fields - no surprise here;
(6) Baroclinic interaction late in the game (north of 25N, and likely even moreso up near 30N)

What can you take from all that? Well, probably not a heck of a lot more than I spelled out. It seems there's a better than average chance this will pass, at the very least, close to Florida, in whatever form it takes.

While (2) and (3) often suggest that a rapid spinup is not as likely, I wouldn't put any money on that given the high oceanic heat content of the NW Caribbean and the seemingly favorable conditions aloft. The system will likely be very wet, given it's projected size and slow movement early on. However, we can't be sure where the heaviest rain will fall (though Cuba and the Caymans look to be under the gun).

You can try and get more specific than that, but until there's a better consensus, and continuity (which isn't gonna happen until this thing starts to spin up in a few days), you'll just be setting yourself up for error. I wouldn't dream of trying to differentiate forecasting a weak TS versus a major hurricane, 2-5 inches versus 10+ for any particular area, or what kind of wind, surge or tornadic threat there might or might not be at this point.

Thanks ajc3 for your feedback.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM H36..Picture says it all...The carribean is juiced up....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

[stormwitch]

What is that big ball of weather in the northeast Gulf ?

[Vortex]

H60 starting to take shape over the NW carribean...epic flood event setting up across many areas of the carribean..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[chargurl]

Tampa area discussion text for tonight:
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH BREAKS
THE RIDGE INTO TWO PARTS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. BEYOND THAT TIME ITS
ANYBODYS GUESS AS MANY MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR
SOUTH THEN MOVE IT ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND
NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SO
MUCH IS PREDICATED ON WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. I
HAVE BASICALLY LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE TO AVOID
FLIP-FLOPPING WITH EACH MODEL RUN.

Somebody is getting forecast fatigue! lol

[Vortex]

h60 very favorable conditions aloft over the NW carribean...winds are screaming out of the west N of cuba as the trough digs...


200mb at 60

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

[gatorcane]

66 hours and organizing in the nw Carib on 00z nam.

[Vortex]

H66 slowly organizing over the NW carribean..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[gatorcane]

What a trough. Look at the strong westerly upper level winds it's bringing all the way to the se gom. I can see why the euro is elongating the system as it moves north into those upper level winds.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think it's safe to say that if Nicole forms. Somewhere in the Gulf will get landfall. I just hope it ain't me.

[SFLcane]

Nothing to strong at 72hrs but the envelope of this system could be huge. It may also be hybrid if it indeed approaches florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_slp_072m.gif