Exerpt from J.Bastardi this morning

[Vortex]

The current map finds three areas of concerns. One thing I am noticing this morning is that the waves coming off Africa are in double shots. This means competition, although if they combine, which they tend to do as they get further west and north, then it means there is more energy available for development. The first system is near 14 north and 49 west and I expect this to be in the northeast Caribbean by Thursday night and in the Bahamas or near Cuba by Sunday. The models have an interesting spray here. Both the UKMET and European develop the system but move it very slow, having it northeast of San Juan over the weekend. The GFS races it west through the northern Caribbean and into the Gulf early next week. My idea is in between. The system is broad and has less convection than yesterday. That is either because it is falling apart or the back running system is about to take over and so the front runner fell apart. I suppose we will know tomorrow, but if I am in the islands north of 15 north I am watching.

[Guest]

I saw that on his video this morning. Since the systems aren't developing looks like they are going more westerly.

Time will tell.

Patricia

[ameriwx2003]

Yes both the UKMET and the EURO develope this system like you said. The EURO for now maintains a fairly strong ridge north of the system while the UKMET shows a huge trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Hopefully the next few days things will become a little clearer:):):0 though I doubt it lol

[southerngale]

Convection looks better than it did earlier today.