Low (No?) Confidence...

[Scott_inVA]

I'm ready to toss the towel and head to Nags for a couple days .
The "watch the trends" manta not working ATTM. Models remain disorganized on solutions for both waves. If weak begets west... the GFS may have the general idea on the first wave. Everything else is recurving. I honestly don't know what to make of the UKies solutions.

Nothing is ready to fire in the next couple of days...VIS, WVL and models all seem to agree on that.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

[cycloneye]

In other words from an explosion in the atlantic of developments to a normal wave train is what the models are telling us.It was a couple of days ago those models had 2 Tropical Cyclones in the atlantic but now it is a waiting period to see when a true longtracker CV system will develop and we can plot it in our charts.

[Guest]

Will it really happen or is the input data submitted to the models overdone?

What looks like an average season - that is one week old - lets not throw in the towel - but a more realistic view of the season might be needed.

Just my two cents.

Patricia

[Scott_inVA]

Will it really happen or is the input data submitted to the models overdone?

What looks like an average season - that is one week old - lets not throw in the towel - but a more realistic view of the season might be needed.

Just my two cents.

Patricia

My "towel toss" comment was metaphorically speaking .
In an effort to develop ideas about the pattern, I devote more time to mid and upper level charts on the models than I do running the actual maps on the site. There's quite a bit of diversity as to what is developing downstream, hence the maps are diverse ATTM. That irritates me b/c I'd rather see that myself than stare at maps going WTF :o :?

Not to worry...the Show must go on tho I'd really prefer going to Nags Head



Scott

[Guest]

Hey Nags Head and vacation is never a bad idea Scott. We appreciate the TIME you spend staring at the maps and giving us your output on them.

Throwing the towel in on the season isn't logical right now.....as in last year the season didn't get cranking until after Labor Day.

Here's a TOAST to you Scott for all that YOU DO for us here at Storm2k!

Patricia

[Steve H.]

I think you will see in the next 7 - 10 days the Atlantic switch turn on. The models have alluded to this...and when conditions are right things will begin developing...I am wary of the wave near 50W. Might start trouble late weekend. Cheers!!

[cycloneye]

Yes I am with ticka on Scotts service to storm2k providing those maps daily and that is useful information that the members like very much although the models are all over the place at times with systems but in general Scott brings the very latest on the models input.