ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HenkL]

Center (estimated from recon) around 14°19'N and 82°01'W.

[HURAKAN]

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[Macrocane]

Seems like some folks here forget that people actually live down here in CA.
And the proximity of water on both sides of us as well as the steep mountains in the interior can turn even a moderate storm into a disastrous rain event.
Though honestly, I´m not sure which would be worse, a direct hit and the mountains tearing up the storm, or having the storm sit along-side pulling moisture up across the mountains from the Pacific. Either way it will be bad.

Thanks to those who have expressed their concern for CA and to all those who post relevant info which helps us in the area be better prepared.

alan

You're right, one thing that people have to take into account is that not only Honduras and Nicaragua may be affected, when a tropical cyclone moves through or close to Central America the whole region may suffer the effects because they pull moisture from the Pacific so Guatemala and El Salvador are in danger too.

[Shuriken]

00Z: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
06Z: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS is smokin' crack -- two runs in a row showing the same thing now: Matthew moving to the Y, then mysteriously disappearing or reforming back southwest of Jamaica, then chasing Castro...huh? WTF?

[johngaltfla]

My prayers are with those folks in CA. That kind of concentrated rainfall will cause massive flooding and mudslides. You folks are in our prayers up here.

[plasticup]

For the curious, this is why a little land interaction doesn't matter, but sweeping farther inland does. Near the northeastern coast, Honduras is flat and sparsely populated. That means little disruption to Matthew's circulation, and light-ish damage. But near the northern coast, Honduras is mountainous and populated, which mean hurricanes get torn apart, rainfall increases, and there are lots of people to be affected:

[Vortmax1]

[HURAKAN]

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[dwsqos2]

It seems as though my excellent call for a less than 50 knot peak has a good chance to verify.

[Vortmax1]

11 AM adjusted track:

[Tireman4]

I have kinfolks in Honduras. I will keep you all updated if anyting happens. They mostly live in San Pedro Sula.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon found a 3 mb drop in pressure and a NW jog/relocation on the last fix. interesting.

[HURAKAN]

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[SouthDadeFish]

Convection has pulsed northward in the last visible frames. A sign of shear letting up maybe?

[shortwave]

does anyone think the area of upper divergence between the upper low over the DR and the anticyclone from mathew spawns a secondary low?

[HurricaneQueen]

My prayers are with those folks in CA. That kind of concentrated rainfall will cause massive flooding and mudslides. You folks are in our prayers up here.

I'm with John, as are many others on the board. Alan, we don't "forget" our members, their families and friends when weather is threatening them no matter where they are located. You, along with all of your country people, are in our thoughts and prayers.

Be safe and know you are not forgotten. And... please ignore the few insensitive posts.

Lynn

[wxman57]

does anyone think the area of upper divergence between the upper low over the DR and the anticyclone from mathew spawns a secondary low?

I'm leaning in that direction now, strange as it seems.

[alanstover]

quote: Be safe and know you are not forgotten. And... please ignore the few insensitive posts.

Thanks, and we will try to remember you all up there when its your turn!

Actually, I´ve been impressed with the sense of community on this board and the over-all courtesy and kindness that is expressed.

Keep up the good work.

Skies are overcast here, but no rain yet. We are on the Pacific side of the mountains. I haven´t seen any reports from the Atlantic side yet. Will try to post any important developments.

[GCANE]

does anyone think the area of upper divergence between the upper low over the DR and the anticyclone from mathew spawns a secondary low?

CMC does on Monday

[Aric Dunn]

does anyone think the area of upper divergence between the upper low over the DR and the anticyclone from mathew spawns a secondary low?

I'm leaning in that direction now, strange as it seems.

yesterday I would have said no... but looking at things today its possible..