ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah and that makes sense given the shear aloft, still the next few hours will confirm whether thats the case with the Vis imagery.

[wxman57]

Quite a decent convective ball there Hurakan, wonder where the LLC is in relation to that convective mass...either way the weather is heading close to land now thats for sure, going to be a rough day.

Here's where NHC has it relative to the ball of convection at 12Z:

[hurricaneCW]

Matthew looks like he was on his way to exploding, so thank god for the landmasses to stop him. He's definitely plowing into CA, but his energy will remain and become entrained with a new low forming. A very complex but interesting setup nonetheless.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

It looks to me possibly like the center is now close to the convective mass, or just to the NE of it but close enough to strengthening either way.

[HURAKAN]

130 miles from the coast ... 14.2N 81.3W

[GCANE]

It looks to me possibly like the center is now close to the convective mass, or just to the NE of it but close enough to strengthening either way.

Convection does look like it took a sharp jog to more over the center in the last frame.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 240545.jpg

[tolakram]

[Sanibel]

I was wrong about track. Obvious CA crasher. Good thing too...

[HURAKAN]

I was wrong about track. Obvious CA crasher. Good thing too...

Except if you're in NE Nicaragua and northern Honduras

[AussieMark]

I was wrong about track. Obvious CA crasher. Good thing too...

Not really a good thing, a storm this size and with track being projected could quite easily cause a lot of bad flooding across the region.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 15, 2010092412, , BEST, 0, 143N, 813W, 45, 1001, TS

no change in intensity

[tshizzle]

good - this thing is going to run smack dab into CA like I thought all along - no way its intensifying into anything crazy while being over land for probably 3 days straight


(especially since I really need hurricane shutters at my new place and havent bought them yet)

[lester]

good - this thing is going to run smack dab into CA like I thought all along - no way its intensifying into anything crazy while being over land for probably 3 days straight


(especially since I really need hurricane shutters at my new place and havent bought them yet)

Not good. This could be disastrous for central america

[ronjon]

good - this thing is going to run smack dab into CA like I thought all along - no way its intensifying into anything crazy while being over land for probably 3 days straight


(especially since I really need hurricane shutters at my new place and havent bought them yet)

Don't be fooled by the convective ball and easterly shear that's displaced the convection far west of the center. The actual center according to NHC, is at 14.3N-80.7W which is displaced NE of the convective ball you see slaming into CA. You'll notice on the SAT that convection is now increasing SW of JAM immediately north of the LLC. The storm is forecast to slow and turn more W-NW over the next 48 hours - the center may still only glaze the NE coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Eyeofdtiger75]

PLEASE....stay away from Florida. We have a honeymood in 2 weeks in Orlando and WDW. Fingers Crossed.

[alanstover]

Seems like some folks here forget that people actually live down here in CA.
And the proximity of water on both sides of us as well as the steep mountains in the interior can turn even a moderate storm into a disastrous rain event.
Though honestly, I´m not sure which would be worse, a direct hit and the mountains tearing up the storm, or having the storm sit along-side pulling moisture up across the mountains from the Pacific. Either way it will be bad.

Thanks to those who have expressed their concern for CA and to all those who post relevant info which helps us in the area be better prepared.

alan

[Bocadude85]

good - this thing is going to run smack dab into CA like I thought all along - no way its intensifying into anything crazy while being over land for probably 3 days straight


(especially since I really need hurricane shutters at my new place and havent bought them yet)

Don't be fooled by the convective ball and easterly shear that's displaced the convection far west of the center. The actual center according to NHC, is at 14.3N-80.7W which is displaced NE of the convective ball you see slaming into CA. You'll notice on the SAT that convection is now increasing SW of JAM immediately north of the LLC. The storm is forecast to slow and turn more W-NW over the next 48 hours - the center may still only glaze the NE coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I do not see anyway that Matthew will just graze the NE coast of Honduras... to me he looks to make landfall in northern Nicuargua.

[Comanche]

good - this thing is going to run smack dab into CA like I thought all along - no way its intensifying into anything crazy while being over land for probably 3 days straight


(especially since I really need hurricane shutters at my new place and havent bought them yet)

Don't be fooled by the convective ball and easterly shear that's displaced the convection far west of the center. The actual center according to NHC, is at 14.3N-80.7W which is displaced NE of the convective ball you see slaming into CA. You'll notice on the SAT that convection is now increasing SW of JAM immediately north of the LLC. The storm is forecast to slow and turn more W-NW over the next 48 hours - the center may still only glaze the NE coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I do not see anyway that Matthew will just graze the NE coast of Honduras... to me he looks to make landfall in northern Nicuargua.

Completely agree, in fact, based on the few vis shots, it looks to be more like 14.1/81.9, we'll see soon in the next update.

[Vortmax1]

The last center fix has him a little left of the forecast track: