ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[fci]

Shocked if not a Hurricane in the morning.

[Aquawind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/0545 UTC 14.2N 79.1W T2.5/2.5 MATTHEW -- Atlantic

Interesting no change..

[dwsqos2]

Well, it isn't really a shock that subjective t numbers didn't increase if the center is where is estimated by SAB. Having said that, judging from low-cloud motions on shortwave, methinks the center is on the eastern side of the convective mass. This isn't totally clear though.

Limited surface obs nearby don't exactly suggest significant deepening either.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, it isn't really a shock that subjective t numbers didn't increase if the center is where is estimated by SAB. Having said that, judging from low-cloud motions on shortwave, methinks the center is on the eastern side of the convective mass. This isn't totally clear though.

Limited surface obs nearby don't exactly suggest significant deepening either.

microwave images from earlier have in central with the convection.. well slightly off center ..

[Aric Dunn]

we may be seeing the early signs of a eye showing on IR..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[southerngale]

Looks impressive.

[SouthFloridawx]

Edit: 645

[Texashawk]

So much for that cruise to Cancun/Progreso next week, eh...?

[ronjon]

Center may be close to 14.5N-80.5W - difficult to tell on IR. Would be on the NE side of the CDO. Appears to have slowed slightly and turned more W-NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb-s.html

[Kingarabian]

Lord have mercy.

[jlauderdal]

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9104/matthewa.jpg

Lord have mercy.

It's an IR image, i wouldn't be giving this a "lord of mercy" rating quite yet

[caneman]

I think most are well aware of it being an IR image, you can not argue that it indeed does look very impressive and is ramping up.

[jlauderdal]

I think most are well aware of it being an IR image, you can not argue that it indeed does look very impressive and is ramping up.

it looks good on IR but the fact is the winds arent doing much yet, NHC has it at 45 knots, my point was that judging these systems on pretty IR images can be a mistake

[xironman]

42057 Has 31kts and it is quite a ways away http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057, Matt probably still has a very small core. The plane should be there in an hour or so.

[HURAKAN]

I think most are well aware of it being an IR image, you can not argue that it indeed does look very impressive and is ramping up.

it looks good on IR but the fact is the winds arent doing much yet, NHC has it at 45 knots, my point was that judging these systems on pretty IR images can be a mistake

45 knots is a compromise between "55 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB." The intensity of the convection makes me believe it's stronger.

[GCANE]

There is about 20 knots of UL winds blowing across the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

As a result deep convection is firing to the west of the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 240115.jpg

The off the scale rain-rate indicates this is most likely a large hot-tower.

This could heat the core rapidily and increase up-draft which in turn could allow the UL ouflow to push away some of the shear.

Right now, core is at 1C.

[GCANE]

Sorry, just checked CIMSS and have a later core-temp analysis.

At 07:08Z, core temp at 2C.

[GCANE]

Steering has changed quite a bit since yesterday when it was to the NW.

Now looks like to the west with a lot stronger push.

[HURAKAN]

The high doesn't want to give in. Most likely means landfall in Nicaragua.

[tgenius]

I feel for the people in Nicaragua, much of that country lives in poverty. God help them.