ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Sanibel]

I think it is presently 276-77* and near trop points in heading. Should do a minimal clip of Honduras. Developing subtle eye-like center in CDO on shortwave IR loop.

[psyclone]

i completely concur VB. in fact, that scenario is becoming more likely with each passing hour. the next 12 to 24 hours should be very fun to watch.

[thetruesms]

That was kinda my point...in a way. Isadore's core collapsed. The wind field took up half the gulf. Different in some aspects though.

I still give it an almost 50/50 chance of charging headlong into CA and not stopping till it gets to Guatemala. That was a BIG topic of our discussions today...will it stop? We know the models are saying yes...but there is a part of us that keeps saying "hmmmm...maybe not"

It's nice to know that professional meteorologists do not rely solely on computers-- there is absolutely nothing wrong with using your extended knowledge and instincts when it comes to mother nature.

No meteorologist can afford to simply regurgitate what a model says. If the person can't add any value to a model forecast, what's the point of even paying to keep the person around anymore?

[Aquawind]

Yeow.. Serious blob alert!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[ROCK]

man it is booking it west alright....caught up in strong eastlerlies no doubt.....

[Florida1118]

Best of luck to anyone in CA who will be affected by this...

[Aric Dunn]

its very likely close to hurricane strength right now..

[tina25]

Matthew has really blown up these past few hours. Wow.

[Florida1118]

Intermediate coming out shortly...

[Aric Dunn]

Intermediate coming out shortly...

it will likely say 45 kts... to maybe 50kts at the 2am... recon should find a hurricane or very near come morning..

[Aric Dunn]

Intermediate coming out shortly...

it will likely say 45 kts... to maybe 50kts at the 2am... recon should find a hurricane or very near come morning..

haha ... lol they just kept it the same ...come here crow im Hungry.. lol

[Aquawind]

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

[lester]

Hurricane Watch for Belize

[Aric Dunn]

recon goes out when ?

[Florida1118]

Intermediate coming out shortly...

it will likely say 45 kts... to maybe 50kts at the 2am... recon should find a hurricane or very near come morning..

haha ... lol they just kept it the same ...come here crow im Hungry.. lol

And on that uneventful note...Night! (Still Best of luck with those down in CA)

[fci]

Matthew has really blown up these past few hours. Wow.

I agree. The link to "the blob" shows it exploding into the ball.
I'm surprised that the 2 AM had no increase in intensity shown.
I would go along with others expecting the morning to show a serious increase and close to hurricane force.
They are predicting it tomorrow, but I think it will be earlier, not later; tomorrow.

[Aquawind]

recon goes out when ?

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 24/1200,1800Z A. 25/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0315A CYCLONE
C. 24/0830Z C. 24/1945Z
D. 14.8N 80.3W D. 15.3N 83.0W
E. 24/1130Z TO 24/1800Z E. 24/2330Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Should be there around 12Z I think..

[Aric Dunn]

recon goes out when ?

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 24/1200,1800Z A. 25/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0315A CYCLONE
C. 24/0830Z C. 24/1945Z
D. 14.8N 80.3W D. 15.3N 83.0W
E. 24/1130Z TO 24/1800Z E. 24/2330Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Should be there around 12Z I think..

well thats awhile... at this rate it will be hurricane by 8am .. but oh well

[Aquawind]

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON SENSOR STORM
24/0239 UTC 13.9N 78.4W AMSU MATTHEW -- Atlantic
24/0201 UTC 13.9N 78.3W TMI MATTHEW -- Atlantic

[kevin]

This storm is bombing in intensity.