ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

H84...broad area of low pressure extends from the NW carribean to BOC...Hmmmm.....hunch is NW carribean low takes over...




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal084.gif

[LaBreeze]

Texas? You better go further east with this system. I don't even think La is in play.

Texas and LA are going to be protected by the front and some nice dry air moving in. Season seems over for this side of the GOM - unlike 5 years ago tonight when we were being beaten by Rita.

[Vortex]

H90 NW carribean low takes over N of honduras...Maybe AJ can explain if this is mat or future Nicole..I'll analyze later...trying to keep up with posting to the board as quickly as possible



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal090.gif

[Vortex]

H96 N of honduras...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[paintplaye]

H96 N of honduras...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

That is a new system all-together. Check vort.

[Vortex]

H114 over NW carribean and strengthening....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[AJC3]

Ok, it is getting late and I don't know who is still out there but I have read the pages of this thread and I'm confused as many are.
This second storm that might form 5-7 days behind Matthew that people Re referring to as the future Nicole. Has this happened before?
Wouldn't the two systems be too close?
Is this a phantom system the models see?
I have seen some say that Matthew is the eastern system right after someone says that Nicole will follow Matthew.
So... I ask a bunch of questions here.
Anyone up to tackling them?

Granted it's a lower probability event, but if you recall, there was a weak surface trough that lingered over the western GOM behind Karl. There was an anticyclone over it, and it fired off convection even as it moved inland after Karl had dissipated over the high terrain west of Veracruz. The steering hadn't changed behind Karl, so the trough moving quickly inland was to be expected.

However, with the steering pattern north of the Yucatan/NW Caribbean forecast to be in flux, what I think the GFS is suggesting is a similar scenario to "post-Karl", only that the remnant trough will spin up into a low and lift northward.

Now...will it happen? I have serious doubts. This is simply my take of what the GFS may be trying to advertise.

[Vortex]

H96 N of honduras...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

That is a new system all-together. Check vort.

will do once i finish posting, thanks...

[paintplaye]

H96 N of honduras...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

That is a new system all-together. Check vort.

will do once i finish posting, thanks...

Yea this one will be hard to track. Ill help you out for posting charts as I know how overwhelming it can be:



See that coming from the pacific. That is what the gfs is picking up on.


Also trof is not as strong and is even faster.

[Vortex]

H114 another look of deepening low...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal114.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Ok, it is getting late and I don't know who is still out there but I have read the pages of this thread and I'm confused as many are.
This second storm that might form 5-7 days behind Matthew that people Re referring to as the future Nicole. Has this happened before?
Wouldn't the two systems be too close?
Is this a phantom system the models see?
I have seen some say that Matthew is the eastern system right after someone says that Nicole will follow Matthew.
So... I ask a bunch of questions here.
Anyone up to tackling them?

.


Granted it's a lower probability event, but if you recall, there was a weak surface trough that lingered over the western GOM behind Karl. There was an anticyclone over it, and it fired off convection even as it moved inland after Karl had dissipated over the high terrain west of Veracruz. The steering hadn't changed behind Karl, so the trough moving quickly inland was to be expected.

However, with the steering pattern north of the Yucatan/NW Caribbean forecast to be in flux, what I think the GFS is suggesting is a similar scenario to "post-Karl", only that the remnant trough will spin up into a low and lift northward.

Now...will it happen? I have serious doubts. This is simply my take of what the GFS may be trying to advertise.

just as a side note.. the 00z GFS has backed off on the formation of a second system.. at least somewhat.. looks more like weak steering currents before it eventually gets picked up..

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFS shows a scary scenario with a tropical cyclone sitting over incredibly warm waters for many hours.

[Vortex]

H132...stronger...slowly heading NNW



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[MWatkins]

H114 over NW carribean and strengthening....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

I think...THINK...that the developing system is an 850 vort max swung around from the Pacific by Matthew.

However, I think the GFS is way too weak with Matthew before landfall in 2 days. This is a super complex deal, but something is going to present a problem for the US next week.

MW

[Vortex]

H138 and stronger....sitting over NW carribean....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal138.gif

[ROCK]

that ULL not digging as far south...2 runs in a row....

[Vortex]

H144 continues to deepen...little movement over NW carribean




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

[ROCK]

500mb at 132hr

[Vortex]

H156...starting to crank...lifting N over NW carribean




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal156.gif

[ROCK]

trof not deep enough to pull it out.....