ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

AFM, do you see a second cyclone forming next week in the Western Caribbean as some models are progging?

No. We talked about that today at length. Not sure why its seeing that...but the GFS especially is splitting the energy and that is making for a bad forecast.

[Sanibel]

How much it clips the Honduran mountains by will make a big difference because it will disrupt the core if it goes more south than forecast. On the other hand if it stays just offshore it could be an underpredicted RI bomber straight into Belize. Look at the Unisys archive for this track.

[Vortex]

this is the most impressive trough ive ever seen for later september



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[Air Force Met]

Wow, the new cone has it sitting in the middle of the Yucatan for 48 hours at least. That would have to be the end of Matthew, even a strong hurricane would be hard pressed to sit over land for 48+ hours without dying off. If it were continuing to move then it would be no problem, but that's not what the NHC thinks will happen.

Sorry...but that's not correct. What will happen is it will weaken...the inner core will collapse and the wind field will spread out. In the end...you will be left with a larger circulation. It will take a little longer for it to get its act together once it moves off the Yucatan...but there will be plenty of LLC left to do it with.

AFM,

What about Isidore 2002 though? It was never the same after the Yucatan.

That was kinda my point...in a way. Isadore's core collapsed. The wind field took up half the gulf. Different in some aspects though.

I still give it an almost 50/50 chance of charging headlong into CA and not stopping till it gets to Guatemala. That was a BIG topic of our discussions today...will it stop? We know the models are saying yes...but there is a part of us that keeps saying "hmmmm...maybe not"

[paintplaye]

this is the most impressive trough ive ever seen for later september



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

It is weaker and faster though than the 18z was showing.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[BigB0882]

How long does a troughs effects continue to weigh on the tropics? This trough will be swinging through in and people seem to be hinting that FL will be under the gun for the next few weeks. All from the same trough or are many troughs planning on coming down way further than normal? Is this a pattern or a one time thing, I guess I am asking...

[Andrew92]

Wow, I know I don't comment a lot on the storm threads. I usually try to just sit back, read, and learn what's going on. But even I have to ask something here.

So the NHC track currently has Matthew moving over the Yucatan and weakening as it stalls there. Some models, however, are calling for Nicole to develop behind Matthew in about a week's time, maybe a little less. The Pro Mets disagree and say that Matthew is THE only one player there might possibly be around that time frame. So here's my thought: Is it possible, when putting these pieces together, that Matthew just either stalls in the Gulf of Honduras ( ), or maybe briefly makes a landfall in the Yucatan, then loops back out over the Caribbean?

And in terms of intensity, I dunno, 65 kts/75 mph seems kind of low for a Yucatan landfall to me, all things considered. Of course, there are about 12-18 hours in between those points, but I feel that that should have been mentioned in the NHC discussion. I mean, the NHC has Matthew making landfall, then emerging in the Gulf of Honduras with 60-kt/70-mph winds. On the cone, it looks like it could make landfall about 36 hours after that. After seeing how quickly Karl intensified in 24 hours before landfall in the same area.....I'm sorry, but I shudder a little bit.

-Andrew92

[vbhoutex]

That was kinda my point...in a way. Isadore's core collapsed. The wind field took up half the gulf. Different in some aspects though.

I still give it an almost 50/50 chance of charging headlong into CA and not stopping till it gets to Guatemala. That was a BIG topic of our discussions today...will it stop? We know the models are saying yes...but there is a part of us that keeps saying "hmmmm...maybe not"

Is the reasoning behind the hhmmm...maybe not because the trough may miss it because it too far South and faster/further West than original progs?

[tina25]

That was kinda my point...in a way. Isadore's core collapsed. The wind field took up half the gulf. Different in some aspects though.

I still give it an almost 50/50 chance of charging headlong into CA and not stopping till it gets to Guatemala. That was a BIG topic of our discussions today...will it stop? We know the models are saying yes...but there is a part of us that keeps saying "hmmmm...maybe not"

It's nice to know that professional meteorologists do not rely solely on computers-- there is absolutely nothing wrong with using your extended knowledge and instincts when it comes to mother nature.

[blp]

No northward component in the last few hours. It even lost a tenth of a degree which could be the center following the expanded convection.

0300 UTC 14.0N 78.4W NHC
2345 UTC 14.1N 77.5W SSD

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, the posts sure have slowed down, now that Florida isn't mentioned near as much as it was earlier as far as the track is concerned...

[cycloneye]

The latest at 3:15z.

[weatherSnoop]

Wow, the posts sure have slowed down, now that Florida isn't mentioned near as much as it was earlier as far as the track is concerned...

I don't post much anyhow, but I am watching very closely...is this pick on Florida members day?

[Florida1118]

Wow, the posts sure have slowed down, now that Florida isn't mentioned near as much as it was earlier as far as the track is concerned...

Its also nearly Midnight on a weekday and nothing new is incoming from the NHC until 2am...gotta expect it to slow.

[Aquawind]

Healthy little core alright..

[Air Force Met]

That was kinda my point...in a way. Isadore's core collapsed. The wind field took up half the gulf. Different in some aspects though.

I still give it an almost 50/50 chance of charging headlong into CA and not stopping till it gets to Guatemala. That was a BIG topic of our discussions today...will it stop? We know the models are saying yes...but there is a part of us that keeps saying "hmmmm...maybe not"

Is the reasoning behind the hhmmm...maybe not because the trough may miss it because it too far South and faster/further West than original progs?

Yes. The ridge is due north of it and steering it on a 270 at a good clip.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Wow, the posts sure have slowed down, now that Florida isn't mentioned near as much as it was earlier as far as the track is concerned...

no, that's not why. it's because it is almost midnight and most normal people sleep duirng the week because they have to get up early to go to work or school tomorrow morning. haha

[psyclone]

of course the posts are gonna slow down when a threat reduces. the whole scenario is interesting but looking at that last sat pic... it looks like matthew is quickly running out of room to avoid a bruising fight with the higher terrain of hon/nic. even the northern extent of the ebryonic cdo appears to be well below the latitude of the northern honduran coastline

[vbhoutex]

of course the posts are gonna slow down when a threat reduces. the whole scenario is interesting but looking at that last sat pic... it looks like matthew is quickly running out of room to avoid a bruising fight with the higher terrain of hon/nic. even the northern extent of the ebryonic cdo appears to be well below the latitude of the northern honduran coastline

I'm starting to think that Matthew may bury himself in Honduras/Nicaragua mountains and/or Belize/Mexican mainland. He is going to have to start gaining latitude quickly in order to avoid that "bruising fight" which could finish him off as far as a US threat is concerned. Unfortunately that fight could unleash some devastating floods. Let's hope if this scenario plays out that the governments are ready to take steps to lessen the impact on the populace.