ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[BigB0882]

Sorry to burst people bubbles but do you think that track will hold? I really don't know what will happen but people seem happy to see it over Yucatan for a few days and yeah, Yucatan kills cyclones. Seems to be the most common misconception out there.

I know the Yucatan is not a big threat to moving storms but you don't think it would kill a storm that sits over it for 48 hours at the least, probably more like 72 hours...

[sunnyday]

Once again, it looks as if there was no cause for worry for the people in Fl. This is not a forecast of any kind, just my own observation.

[gatorcane]

Sorry to burst people bubbles but do you think that track will hold? I really don't know what will happen but people seem happy to see it over Yucatan for a few days and yeah, Yucatan kills cyclones. Seems to be the most common misconception out there.

well that is why the NHC does not show it becoming a remnant low over the Yucatan because the Yucatan does not always kill cyclones, since there is water on three sides to feed the center and the terrain is flat, once it gets back over water again it could rapidly develop if upper-level conditions are favorable. If it were to make a NE turn from the Yuctan, plenty of water water in the SE GOM.

[Aquawind]

Wow, the new cone has it sitting in the middle of the Yucatan for 48 hours at least. That would have to be the end of Matthew, even a strong hurricane would be hard pressed to sit over land for 48+ hours without dying off. If it were continuing to move then it would be no problem, but that's not what the NHC thinks will happen.

Yep.. Karl handled the Yukatan very very well though..so if the enviromental conditions are still good or speed picks up it could regen once in the GOM..

[ROCK]

Sorry to burst people bubbles but do you think that track will hold? I really don't know what will happen but people seem happy to see it over Yucatan for a few days and yeah, Yucatan kills cyclones. Seems to be the most common misconception out there.

NHC is hedging its bet....beyond 72hrs the models are all over the place....so FOR NOW the safest bet was to bury it in the Yuc for a few days...thats all its implying....

[artist]

Dont get over excited yet.. it still turns the forecast is highly uncertain past 3 days right now.. it also is now forecast to be hurricane tomorrow..

yeah, it amazes me, there is still a turn at the end, yet many are jumping up and down like this is all over...

[Air Force Met]

The cone is out, shift to the west, looks like it gets buried in the Yucatan...................no NE turn

Sorry Mexico..but good for South Florida..

I really don't think so. This is probably nothing more than a reprieve. South Florida is still likely in the cross-hairs of this system late next week.

Aquawind...unless Matt just plows into CA and doesn't stop moving west (which is possible...not likely but possible)...there will be a NE turn. It's just beyond the 5 day forecast point...like day 6 and 7.

[Vortex]

if mat washes out over CA and thats a big if we would likely be dealing with nicole in 4-6 days in the vicinity of jamaica...

[gatorcane]

Thanks AFM for the forecast of a Florida hit

Of course it may not be strong if it hits Florida if the Yucatan can weaken it enough.

[Ivanhater]

From the NHC DISCO.....says it all

[img]THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME AND THERE IS FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST. IN 2-3 DAYS...
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS AND A
DECELERATION OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SEVERAL OF THEM SHOWING RATHER
COMPLEX SCENARIOS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL MOVE MATTHEW
WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN
2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY WEAKEN
MATTHEW...THEN DEVELOP A SECOND CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...GFDL....AND HWRF
KEEP MATTHEW AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AND SHOW IT TURNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN...AND IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72
HOURS.
[/img]

[Aquawind]

Dont get over excited yet.. it still turns the forecast is highly uncertain past 3 days right now.. it also is now forecast to be hurricane tomorrow..

You can see that front clearly in TX on the WV loop as well so a little change in timing or intensity of either could make a big difference yet..

[TheDreamTraveler]

Dont get over excited yet.. it still turns the forecast is highly uncertain past 3 days right now.. it also is now forecast to be hurricane tomorrow..

yeah, it amazes me, there is still a turn at the end, yet many are jumping up and down like this is all over...

Exactly. Once this thing gets back into the Gulf of Mexico...then we're going to have to keep a close eye on it again. It's not just going to die off so quickly over the Yukatan.

[Aric Dunn]

Please read the discussion before making assumption past 3 days in this case is difficult to forecast... it explains why they shifted the track... things like "for now" ...

[HURAKAN]

11 pm discussion:

AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY WEAKEN
MATTHEW...THEN DEVELOP A SECOND CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...GFDL....AND HWRF
KEEP MATTHEW AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AND SHOW IT TURNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN...AND IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72
HOURS.

[tina25]

Interesting discussion regarding the future track.

[wxman57]

I heard a local met here in Orlando just a little earlier this evening actually say that 'we are getting close to that time of the season where rapid intensification is much less likely.' I'm not sure that's a correct statement. I've seen numerous storms over the years in late Sept/early Oct. really ramp up in a hurry. Did the guy 'mispeak' or am I crazy?

Ask him if he ever heard of Wilma (mid October) or Mitch (late October) or Opal (early October), or a bunch of other rapid intensifiers in the Caribbean late in the season. This is a prime region for rapid intensification, particularly this time of year.

[Aquawind]

The cone is out, shift to the west, looks like it gets buried in the Yucatan...................no NE turn

Sorry Mexico..but good for South Florida..

I really don't think so. This is probably nothing more than a reprieve. South Florida is still likely in the cross-hairs of this system late next week.

Aquawind...unless Matt just plows into CA and doesn't stop moving west (which is possible...not likely but possible)...there will be a NE turn. It's just beyond the 5 day forecast point...like day 6 and 7.

Fine be that way..lol I did mention regen is possible so I am with ya..I was just hoping it would be further north I guess..you see my location..

[Vortex]

much of the guidance if not matt has low pressure over the NW carribean...Even the ukmet which takes matt west and washes out near the BOC has an organized low back over the gulf of honduras in 5 days...

[sunnyday]

I'm totally confused. Some say that this storm with dissipate over the Yucatan, so I feel that is good news for Fl. Then, others say S Fl is likely to be in danger of being hit next week. I know the path is uncertain at best right now, but who is most likely to be accurate at this point?

[Aric Dunn]

I heard a local met here in Orlando just a little earlier this evening actually say that 'we are getting close to that time of the season where rapid intensification is much less likely.' I'm not sure that's a correct statement. I've seen numerous storms over the years in late Sept/early Oct. really ramp up in a hurry. Did the guy 'mispeak' or am I crazy?

Ask him if he ever heard of Wilma (mid October) or Mitch (late October) or Opal (early October), or a bunch of other rapid intensifiers in the Caribbean late in the season. This is a prime region for rapid intensification, particularly this time of year.

exactly and the trough at least from the GFS and Euro point of view is looking to be quite amplified and track similar to Wilma is not out of the question except with less of E component.