ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

I was thinking the same thing Bob. That's the best weakest tropical storm I've ever seen. I'd say 60mph.

[Blown Away]

I'm really disappointed Accuweather won't commit their track arrow beyond 3 days. I would love to know if they are going w/ the NHC or keeping Matt west into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Sab Dvorak

23/2345 UTC 14.1N 77.5W T2.5/2.5 MATTHEW -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[bob rulz]

Dang... Large with banding and deep convection firing near the center.. High Potential energy. Looks like the size alone is slowing the strengthening at this point like Alex..then again it was just classified 6 hours ago so..recon will be impressive in the morning..

I would hardly call this a slowly-strengthening storm and I'm very very surprised that the NHC held at 40mph at 8pm.

You should know..they don't go by visuals alone..evidently the sat estimates don't support it and without recon or surface obs no change. They don't do alot guessing or assuming at the NHC.. it's just getting started as I mentioned..

Yeah I'm aware of that, but the microwave image at the least looks mighty impressive for a 40mph tropical storm. When was the most recent dvorak estimate?

EDIT: Right on cue cycloneye.

[Aquawind]

I hear ya.. I posted prior how impressive it looks..must not have been available for the 8pm at least..

[HURAKAN]

Accuwx's track

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 15, 2010092400, , BEST, 0, 141N, 777W, 40, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Up to 40kts.

[Vortex]

Magenta colors now over center within the last hour....

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems to be tightening up a lot. Looking for a hurricane tomorrow mid-morning.

[Swimdude]

I'm not wanting to sound an alarm by any means, but I just have so many recent examples of rapidly intensifying storms this year, that I can't rule out the possibility of this occurring again, and this time in the Western Caribbean. We have been so, so lucky this year. Matthew, you have me a bit concerned.

[supercane]

TAFB Dvorak at 00Z from ATCF fix file T3.0:
AL, 15, 201009232345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1400N, 7810W, , 2, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, MN, I, 3, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 3.0 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING WITH (T+0.5) WHITE B

[Vortex]

well on its way to being a cane...50mph at 11pm...65mph 5am nearing hurricane strength with tomorrow morning recon...IMO

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope they put up Hurricane Warnings soon for Belize and the Yucatan.

[Aquawind]

While I agree Matthew looks impressive in organization.. The real heat potential is to the north and it's not to impressive just off the coast..the enviroment alone looks very favorable and I still agree a hurricane tomorrow is very possible if not likely..RECON will be interesting to say the least..

Sounds reasonable Vortex..

[Steve H.]

youze guys are jumping the gun. I think it will evolve slowly. And it may get trapped for a while near Belize. remember Keith?

[psyclone]

matthew had better start pulling up soon or the theory that he buries himself in central america could come to fruition. regardless of Matthew's fate, I suspect there will be several more firings of the caribbean cannon, and i wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple of majors from this region between now and the end of october.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the latest forecast graphic of the steering?

[robbielyn]

Baynews9 says matthew will cont west most likely dissipate after going inland but nicole not even formed yet will form right behind it. And the US will have to deal with tht on later in the week. Will be interesting to see wht happens.

[KWT]

Now upto 40kts, the models don't seem to know how to handle all the energy that is in the gyre, there is a chance that Matthew gets stronger then expected and that would certainly throw another spanner in the works.

I suspect the NHC track will have to be adjusted westwards and we may see another system form as Matthew decays but the energy will likely be from the same source...

Either way the whole lot is going to be dragged up one way or the other...

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone has the latest forecast graphic of the steering?

Notice how the trough is eroding the high