ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ivanhater]

The Caribbean will likely be cranking out storms and the models don't know what to do with it.

[Vortex]

no wonder wxman57 and the pro mets havent been seen much

[Vortex]

288H SFL nearly again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

[Aquawind]

The Caribbean will likely be cranking out storms and the models don't know what to do with it.

Yepp.. As mentioned it looks to be just the start of the season for this part of the basin..

[Bocadude85]

288H SFL again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

lol yea but by which storm?

[Ivanhater]

Well I'm glad things are cleared up now...

Consensus=Cancel

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps...stalls it over gulf of honduras, just east of belize...




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Typhoon_Willie]

He he who knows what storm!

[Vortex]

Looking at matt this evening...there is almost NOWAY this just dissipates...Not gonna happen....

[ospreygrad]

The Caribbean will likely be cranking out storms and the models don't know what to do with it.

Yepp.. As mentioned it looks to be just the start of the season for this part of the basin..

. The MJO is now firmly established in the SW Atlantic basin. October is definitely goping to be active indeed in the Caribbean for sure.

[Vortex]

nogaps takes it west across honduras/south belize then back east to the gulf of honduras

[PTrackerLA]

I'm dizzy, what a crazy run! Here we thought we were starting to see some consensus between GFS/Euro well that just got trashed. It's obvious this a very complex situation with possible multiple storms brewing in the Caribbean over the next two weeks (according to 18z). However, this is the second run in a row that essentially dissipates Matthew after moving across the Yucatan/BOC. I'd expect some changes in the NHC track for Matty come tonight.

[Bocadude85]

Looking at matt this evening...there is almost NOWAY this just dissipates...Not gonna happen....

There is also no way it takes 12 days for Matt to get to Fla.... so I wouldnt be so sure he doesnt just dissipate and a new system forms..

[hurricaneCW]

The gfs looks like it just endured hell in an insane asylum. Absolute bizarre run, there's like 3 lows, one in the BOC, one in the western Caribbean, something off the Yucatan, there's a double barreled low heading just east of Florida, one low heads off the coast, one up the boast.

The run before this was so much easier to figure out, this one is insane. The run to run consistency is dead, there's none at all. So, I think it's best not to go beyond 5 days on any run at this point because the whole scenario is crazy.

[ROCK]

GFS is suffering from some feedback issues...serious feedback issues...

[btangy]

The global models are showing a very anomalous pattern developing over the central and eastern US. There is tremendous model spread as to how the deep trough that's forecasted to develop evolves. Take a look at the GEFS spread in 576 dm line in the 500 mb height spaghetti chart: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... e_084m.gif. The progression and depth of the trough will determine how quickly Matthew gets pulled northward. The ECMWF ensemble, from what I saw earlier, also shows similar spread in the trough position, depth, and progression. This means there is much higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast for Matthew beyond 2 days, and I'm not entirely sure which way to lean.

It seems the second system that the GFS and ECMWF are developing from whatever remains of Matthew and a monsoon-like gyre that forms in the NW Carribbean may not be purely tropical. It will certainly have tropical characteristics given where it's forming, but given the strong upstream trough, it will likely be baroclinic as well. The models appears out of whack because this is a highly unusual pattern for this time of year. I can't recall a similar situation in late Sept. This may throw a ton of water up the east coast no matter what happens.

[jlauderdal]

288H SFL nearly again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

south florida should have been destroyed years ago based on the model runs that have us getting hit, year after year after year, one of these times but until then happy hurricane hunting, the generator continues to collect dust

[Aquawind]

Thanks btangy. It's been pretty dry here in Sw Florida for weeks and today we are getting some widespread rains from the SE. Either way it looks like a wet period for Florida and yes the east coast as well eventually.

[Bocadude85]

288H SFL nearly again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

south florida should have been destroyed years ago based on the model runs that have us getting hit, year after year after year, one of these times but until then happy hurricane hunting, the generator continues to collect dust

I agree. I do not think we will see much from Matt here in South Florida

[artist]

The global models are showing a very anomalous pattern developing over the central and eastern US. There is tremendous model spread as to how the deep trough that's forecasted to develop evolves. Take a look at the GEFS spread in 576 dm line in the 500 mb height spaghetti chart: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... e_084m.gif. The progression and depth of the trough will determine how quickly Matthew gets pulled northward. The ECMWF ensemble, from what I saw earlier, also shows similar spread in the trough position, depth, and progression. This means there is much higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast for Matthew beyond 2 days, and I'm not entirely sure which way to lean.

It seems the second system that the GFS and ECMWF are developing from whatever remains of Matthew and a monsoon-like gyre that forms in the NW Carribbean may not be purely tropical. It will certainly have tropical characteristics given where it's forming, but given the strong upstream trough, it will likely be baroclinic as well. The models appears out of whack because this is a highly unusual pattern for this time of year. I can't recall a similar situation in late Sept. This may throw a ton of water up the east coast no matter what happens.

thanks for your input btangy! So we need to trash the models after 2 days for right now. At least we know that much!