ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#941 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 3:56 pm

H84 moving slowly N....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

#942 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:13 pm

Is everyone in shock? I haven't seen any new posts here for over 15minutes with models running? strange. Did the site go down?

Bocadude85 · #943 Postby **Bocadude85** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:16 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Is everyone in shock? I haven't seen any new posts here for over 15minutes with models running? strange. Did the site go down?

Im here... just been looking at some of the 12z model runs... I really would not be all that surprised if Matthew dissipated over Belize before having a chance to lift out to the north.

#944 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:17 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Is everyone in shock? I haven't seen any new posts here for over 15minutes with models running? strange. Did the site go down?

Nah! The models are being too consistent with the path to FL so we are all bored. J/k of course! I'm just sitting and watching from my phone. Keeping an eye on it but every hour looks safer and safer for LA.

#945 Postby **AdamFirst** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:28 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Im here... just been looking at some of the 12z model runs... I really would not be all that surprised if Matthew dissipated over Belize before having a chance to lift out to the north.

Those chances are pretty remote especially if it misses Nicaragua.

Plus the 12z runs were still when it was an invest...not even a TD yet. That makes a world of difference.

#946 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:28 pm

That incoming front looks like it can keep the western gulf, and even as far east as Pensacola safe, as long as the storm doesn't stall off Belize and miss the connection altogether. All bets are off if it simply floats around down near the Yucatan as previous models indicated was a possibility.

The speed of the approaching front is a big factor too. If it comes in fast, it could influence a more northerly path before Matt has a chance to get inland into the Yucatan and keep it stronger without that land interaction. Of cousre that scenario would also tend to result in a storm that has a more easterly component downstream over FL/SFL/even Cuba(?).

If the front is delayed, then the land interaction could be more prevalent and result in a weaker system that gets further north. However, if it hits the loop current, then a quick surge is always possible too.

I don't want this, but certainly would hate to see it go up to the northern gulf coast as a strong storm that is capable of upwelling all that sitting oil in plumes underwater just offshore.

#947 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:30 pm

12Z Ensembles on both GFS and ECM are west of the operational....I wouldnt be surprised to see the 18Z GFS further west and towards the FL panahandle...well see shortly...

#948 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:33 pm

I would not be surprised if we get a stall over or just east of the yucatan...It could wander for several days(ala mitch)....if not then I think it connects and heads NE toward FL.

#949 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:48 pm

GFS 18Z....H24 getting closer to Nicaragua/Honduras

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

#950 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:52 pm

H36 just NE of Nicaragua...may miss Honduras...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

#951 Postby **lester** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:54 pm

Vortex wrote:H36 just NE of Nicaragua...may miss Honduras...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

Whoa, barely misses its first landfall by a hair!

#952 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:58 pm

I'm not so sure it won't make landfall in Nicaragua and stay inland beyond then. Distinct possibility.

#953 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:02 pm

H54 just east of the yucatan...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

ConvergenceZone · #954 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:04 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not so sure it won't make landfall in Nicaragua and stay inland beyond then. Distinct possibility.

Wxman, maybe you are right. Maybe it will die off once it gets inland...

#955 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:07 pm

H72 getting ready to head into BOC

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

ConvergenceZone · #956 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:08 pm

The track might be moved more towards the BOC by later tonight....

#957 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:08 pm

That latest map shows it just East of the yucatan but as a 1005 mb low. It is currently at 1006mb. I don't think it will only have fallen 1mb in 54 hours, especially if it misses land as this run indicates. Did it initialize properly?

#958 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:09 pm

GFS will probably develop "Nicole" behind Matthew.

#959 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:10 pm

thats what im thinking ivan...

#960 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:12 pm

H90 very odd looking.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

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