ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

Let's save some model pics rather than posting direct links, for historic purposes.

Canadian


GFS


Euro:


GFDL


HWRF

[tolakram]

IMO, reviewing the 12z 72h models above, there is little chance of this not hitting the YP. Looks like pretty strong consensus to me.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes I would have to agree with that sentiment. I hope that it does not hit Fla though. We will have to wait and see.

[hurricaneCW]

The U.S. will not be spared from the effects of all of this. A huge trough in the east will allow plentiful moisture to surge northward. Let's just hope we don't have a strong hurricane that comes along with the moisture.

[otowntiger]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the Euro is not indicating necessarily a strong hurricane (pressure 990's) and like Ivan said it appears to be sheared. Definitely not the outputs we were seeing two days ago of a major getting into the gulf. Don't panic just yet Floridians.

Yes I agree with you. There are several models that on multiple runs for some time now have developed only a weak system, or relatively weak, i.e. cat 1 at most. It does seem however that the FL peninnsula is the odds on favorite as far as track goes, but that certainly can change. I suppose there is not much reason to put stock in intensity forecasts because that is a science we definintely do not have a grasp on.

[StormClouds63]

This scenario is playing out a lot like Eloise in terms of where the system will go once into the GOM. In late September, 1975, had a relatively strong low pressure trough pick up Eloise and push it ENE into the FL panhandle near Panama City as a Category 3 hurricane. The only difference is that the turn could be even sharper to the east so St. Marks, Perry, Cedar Key, and Tampa need to pay attention as well.

This is just a guess, and the right turn could be quite a bit sharper.



More information on Eloise is here:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/eloise1975.html

[tolakram]

We have LITTLE SKILL in predicting intensity. You don't look at any of the models for intensity, you look for patterns and direction. This is a key point. If the models had any skill at predicting intensity then the NHC would have more skill as well.

[PTrackerLA]

Well the models were dead on with never really developing TS Bonnie into much earlier this year so you can't always assume a major hurricane will develop. The models are obviously seeing something inhibiting this system from becoming a major and that could be shear.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM at H48 NE nicaragua


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

18Z NAM at H48 NE nicaragua


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

Off topic but is that possible Nicole I see on the North coast of South America?

SFT

[Vortex]

H54 just north of honduras...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[Vortex]

18Z NAM at H48 NE nicaragua


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

Off topic but is that possible Nicole I see on the North coast of South America?

SFT

Noticed that as well

[Stormcenter]

Yes they are probaly seeing the same issues Bonnie,TDs and other disturbances have had in the GOM this
season.......shear and dry air. In this case the air may actually be dry cool air.
Not a good set up for major development. IMO

Well the models were dead on with never really developing TS Bonnie into much earlier this year so you can't always assume a major hurricane will develop. The models are obviously seeing something inhibiting this system from becoming a major and that could be shear.

[Vortex]

H60 we have twins....looks just like wilma and alpha...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Vortex]

H66 interesting look there...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

H66 interesting look there...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

Do we have twins or is it triplets...What's that in the GOM there?

SFT

[Vortex]

H72..bombing out?



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Vortex]

h78..worst case scenario...no landfall over yucatan and begins Nortward motion



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

h78..worst case scenario...no landfall over yucatan and begins Nortward motion



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

Yeah, and look at that low pressure draped across the GOM...Maybe that will induce some shear ahead of Matthew but unfortunately I think I saw this movie in October about 5 years ago...

SFT

[Typhoon_Willie]

I saw the same movie there SFT. In fact my avatar shows it he he.