ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[fci]

This is looking like a Part 1 and Part 2 season
Part 1- The Cape Verde recurves
Part 2- The Northwest Carib

Part 1 is fun to watch when you are in The CONUS
Part 2 is not so much fun if you live in FL or along the GOM

[johngaltfla]

General rule is if you are in the bullseye many days out you are probably safe (but not always).


Keeping an eye on this.


I don't like the look of this one. It is perched right in the right place and the right time for one last barn-burner.

Yeah, and if that trough dips far enough south we will be asking if Charlie has a cousin or younger brother.

[hiflyer]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Need we say more??

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro shows a rather broad and weak system once again that appears to be sheared. The models are all. over. the. place....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[hurricaneCW]

I think the storm that could impact Florida will be Nicole, not Matthew unless the NHC determines to use Matthew's energy along with additional Caribbean energy and say that it's the same storm. The Euro and Gfs clearly indicate that another low will form and that low will be the one to affect the U.S.

[Aquawind]

If this thing actually hits here in SW Florida..in this economy it will break MANY businesses waiting for the snowbirds to come back..more than usual that is.. I could say a few swear words here but, they won't help..

[FLpanhandle91]

NOGAPS and HWRF models have me worried.. I'm thinking Matthew will take a path similar to those..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Aric Dunn]

I think the storm that could impact Florida will be Nicole, not Matthew unless the NHC determines to use Matthew's energy along with additional Caribbean energy and say that it's the same storm. The Euro and Gfs clearly indicate that another low will form and that low will be the one to affect the U.S.

Dont count on a solution like that the models often produce spurious lows in the NW Carrib. In any case it would still be the same portion of the circulation if something like that were to happen

[vbhoutex]

Let me ask anyone in the know...If this system organizes faster than predicted is this a case where a stronger storm would be pulled more poleward?

SFT

The stronger a TC becomes the more likely it is to try to go poleward. In this case if TD15 does develop faster and stronger it would feel the trough sooner than later. Of course the trough has to make it far enough S to start the pull also, so timing, as always is everything with the future track of TD15 and whatever it may become. Everything I am seeing attm tells me that TD15 will continue to intensify. The faster that intensification happens the more latitude it will tend to gain. If it gains enough latitude quick enough, then it doesn't slam into CA, which keeps it over highly conducive waters for development. This one needs to be watched closely, first by those in CA and the Yucatan, W Cuba, Caymans, maybe Jamaica and then anyone on the Gulf coast, especially the Eastern half of the GOM as well as all of FL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

I think the storm that could impact Florida will be Nicole, not Matthew unless the NHC determines to use Matthew's energy along with additional Caribbean energy and say that it's the same storm. The Euro and Gfs clearly indicate that another low will form and that low will be the one to affect the U.S.

Dont count on a solution like that the models often produce spurious lows in the NW Carrib. In any case it would still be the same portion of the circulation if something like that were to happen

I'm pretty sure TD 15 will go over the Yucatan and die or cross into the BOC...the GFS and Euro are spinning up a new low pressure area south of Jamaica. Whether or not the NHC decides to rename it, I don't know.

[vbhoutex]

I think the storm that could impact Florida will be Nicole, not Matthew unless the NHC determines to use Matthew's energy along with additional Caribbean energy and say that it's the same storm. The Euro and Gfs clearly indicate that another low will form and that low will be the one to affect the U.S.

Dont count on a solution like that the models often produce spurious lows in the NW Carrib. In any case it would still be the same portion of the circulation if something like that were to happen

I'm pretty sure TD 15 will go over the Yucatan and die or cross into the BOC...the GFS and Euro are spinning up a new low pressure area south of Jamaica. Whether or not the NHC decides to rename it, I don't know.

I'm pretty sure TD 15 will go over the Yucatan and die or cross into the BOC

SSHH!!! They'll hear you!! I hope it doesn't do this either.

the GFS and Euro are spinning up a new low pressure area south of Jamaica.

My head is starting to spin like a hurricane!! This could be a forecasters nightmare.

[cycloneye]

The latest.Look at all that banding.

[Lowpressure]

Doesnt look like a dying system to me.

[Aric Dunn]

Let me ask anyone in the know...If this system organizes faster than predicted is this a case where a stronger storm would be pulled more poleward?

SFT

The stronger a TC becomes the more likely it is to try to go poleward. In this case if TD15 does develop faster and stronger it would feel the trough sooner than later. Of course the trough has to make it far enough S to start the pull also, so timing, as always is everything with the future track of TD15 and whatever it may become. Everything I am seeing attm tells me that TD15 will continue to intensify. The faster that intensification happens the more latitude it will tend to gain. If it gains enough latitude quick enough, then it doesn't slam into CA, which keeps it over highly conducive waters for development. This one needs to be watched closely, first by those in CA and the Yucatan, W Cuba, Caymans, maybe Jamaica and then anyone on the Gulf coast, especially the Eastern half of the GOM as well as all of FL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is very likely that we will see a period of rather quick intensification once the circulation becomes a little more established. Also the way satellite looks and what recon found when it first got out there to when it left suggests it is becoming quickly established.

[SunnyThoughts]

wow, looks good. Big storm in the making. Wouldn't want to be a forecaster trying to figure out whats going to happen in the next week, what a nightmare for them.

[Vortex]

Very impressive...probablly a hurricane by morning...

[Lowpressure]

Recon will be interesting in the morning for sure.

[ospreygrad]

Doesnt look like a dying system to me.

Far far from that. TD 15 on satellite imagery already looks very impressive structually and I think there is no doubt in my mind that this system is well on its way of becoming a hurricane. All of us here in Florida, and along the Eastern Gulf, and Southeast CONUS are really going to have to be vigilant over the next week or so.

I also hope and pray for the folks down in Honduras, Belize, Nicaragua and the Yucatan Peninsula as this system will become very large in its circulation feeding deep tropical moisture over these countries as it slows to a crawl this weekend. Big time flooding potential in those areas. It could really be devastating along the likes of what Hurricane Mitch did.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Hi all - Just logging in for the first time today and trying to catch up.

Was Invest 95 upgraded to TD 15 or not? Or is there two separate storms/areas? Just wondering because Wunderground is showing two separate storms -- close but not at the same location. Maybe they just haven't updated their page yet (?)

[lester]

Hi all - Just logging in for the first time today and trying to catch up.

Was Invest 95 upgraded to TD 15 or not? Or is there two separate storms/areas? Just wondering because Wunderground is showing two separate storms -- close but not at the same location. Maybe they just haven't updated their page yet (?)

It was. It's all one storm