ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[chris_fit]

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3599/goes17152010266yf1xrp55.jpg

Looks like it's really starting to take shape. Banding continue to improve with each new frame.

[SouthFLTropics]

First plot:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL1510W5_NL+gif/174913W5_NL_sm.gif

That cone basically says "after day 3, I have no idea." The models have been flip-flopping the synoptics almost every other run - I don't envy the NHC today.

Like I said last night...The NHC forecasters are gonna earn their paycheck on this one. Out of all of the areas in the basin to attempt to forecast a storm this might be one of the most difficult spots. Land interaction, people affected, troughs and highs to contend with...Many, many variable to factor in...

It should be noted that back in 1998 Hurricane Mitch was in the same area and was forecast to move towards the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf. As history shows us we know that didn't happen. Mitch turned South over Honduras and Nicarauga and killed many people, of which included the Windjammer ship Fantome and her crew. The ships crew basically made their decision on which direction to run from the storm based on the NHC's forecast. Unfortunately by doing so they sailed right into the eye of the storm.

SFT

[Vortex]

looking great....Big change in 6-12 hours....

[Sanibel]

General rule is if you are in the bullseye many days out you are probably safe (but not always).


Keeping an eye on this.


I don't like the look of this one. It is perched right in the right place and the right time for one last barn-burner.

[jlauderdal]

General rule is if you are in the bullseye many days out you are probably safe (but not always).


Keeping an eye on this.


I don't like the look of this one. It is perched right in the right place and the right time for one last barn-burner.

certainly beyond 5 days you are in great shape and at 72h you can have a very confidence of not taking a direct hit but you will have effects

[Weatherboy1]

This could get very interesting in the next couple of days.

Wonder if we're going to see a redo of that avatar photo of yours. LOL

[wxman57]

General rule is if you are in the bullseye many days out you are probably safe (but not always).


Keeping an eye on this.


I don't like the look of this one. It is perched right in the right place and the right time for one last barn-burner.

And you're safer, still, if you're not near SW Florida. I don't by any means think this is "one last barn-burner", by the way. The season in the Caribbean is just getting started.

[SouthFLTropics]

General rule is if you are in the bullseye many days out you are probably safe (but not always).


Keeping an eye on this.


I don't like the look of this one. It is perched right in the right place and the right time for one last barn-burner.

I would have to agree on the barn burner comment but unfortunately it is late September and not October. I have a suspicion that this wont be the last anything just yet...

SFT

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[tgenius]

General rule is if you are in the bullseye many days out you are probably safe (but not always).


Keeping an eye on this.


I don't like the look of this one. It is perched right in the right place and the right time for one last barn-burner.

And you're safer, still, if you're not near SW Florida. I don't by any means think this is "one last barn-burner", by the way. The season in the Caribbean is just getting started.

wxman, do you think this could be a wilma like setup that us on the SE FL coast would have to be paying attention to?

[HurricaneRobert]

That is a super deadly track if it divebombs Honduras like that. It is organizing so quickly. Remember, Mitch killed about 15,000 people there.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 15, 2010092318, , BEST, 0, 139N, 762W, 30, 1007, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Remains as TD.

[SouthFLTropics]

Let me ask anyone in the know...If this system organizes faster than predicted is this a case where a stronger storm would be pulled more poleward?

SFT

[MGC]

Been out working in the yard this morning.....

This one developed a bit quicker than I thought....looks like the NHC is buying into the trough picking it up. Yep, 50 miles plus or minus could make a huge difference on long term intensity. Had Isidore not made that little south jog over the Yucatan and lost its core, it would have been a different story when it hit New Orleans. If 15 stalls just offshore it could make a HUGE difference. If the forecast track does indeed verify, and the NHC has been darn accurate this year track wise, I'd be paying close attention in the Sunshine State.......MGC

[vbhoutex]

General rule is if you are in the bullseye many days out you are probably safe (but not always).


Keeping an eye on this.


I don't like the look of this one. It is perched right in the right place and the right time for one last barn-burner.

And you're safer, still, if you're not near SW Florida. I don't by any means think this is "one last barn-burner", by the way. The season in the Caribbean is just getting started.

wxman, do you think this could be a wilma like setup that us on the SE FL coast would have to be paying attention to?

I'm not wxman, but I do know him! If I lived anywhere in FL I would be keeping tabs on TD15's every move!! I am including the panhandle in that thought too since my Mom lives just N of Destin. Even I, a NW GOMer, will be watching this closely. I don't think NW GOM has anything to worry about, but I NEVER SAY NEVER when I'm talking the tropics.

[hurricaneCW]

It's organizing very nicely, and I like that curved band ahead of the center. I wouldn't be surprised to see Matthew by 5PM. Looks like it's running west though and it could easily make landfall in Nicaragua.

[Blown Away]

Very interested to see the 5pm Discussion and how much forecast confidence they have in the 5 day! The NHC is good at subtly letting us know they don't have much confidence.

I'm hopeful that TD15 fizzles before Mexico, but if you love tracking storms this is going to be a dandy with the different model solutions!

[x-y-no]

Let me ask anyone in the know...If this system organizes faster than predicted is this a case where a stronger storm would be pulled more poleward?

SFT

The other way around, I think. A stronger system will be more influenced by the strong mid-level ridge. At least that's what a comparison of the short term BAMD and BAMS tracks indicates.

[MHurricanes]

Based on some research on models I conducted earlier today, the Hurricane Center relies heavily on the "Big 4" models -- GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS AND UKMET -- when putting together its forecast tracks.

From a previous Storm2K posting:

5. Consensus Wins…Almost Always The group of models together (the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS and UKMET) almost always win over time. This is why the NHC leans heavily on forming an average of these 4 models…this concensus is mostly why track errors have come down so far in the last 10 years…

Like here (scroll down):

viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467

Please correct me if I'm wrong.