ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[xironman]

Imo, I think the Nogaps looks most reasonable....

It is possible, but I always take into account the NOGAPS grain of salt rule

[Vortex]

12Z canadian sure DOES NOT clear things up

[emeraldislencguy]

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED AN ADVISORY AT 2 pm

[ColinDelia]

All these model runs just leave me saying "say what?"

[hurricaneCW]

It's certainly not TD 15 because the further east low doesn't even form until around day 5-6. I do believe TD 15 is helping to lower the Caribbean pressures even further and possibly supplying some energy that allows a new system to spin up further east and head to the NW. Most impressive run I've seen in a while from the gfs with the Florida storm though, definitely a hurricane.

Being that the low pressures are going to be so low in the Caribbean for a few weeks along with the favorable MJO and record ocean heat content, we'll likely see several Caribbean systems spawn over the next few weeks, but we just don't know where they will go.

[Wx_Warrior]

We don't know exactly, but have a decent idea in area. air pattern is changing folks.

CMC = Florida

[invest man]

Looks like NHC has taken the usual track close to the tvcn and notice that it appears like a NE movement and also still hurricance force still over land or very closely off shore. IM

[Weatherboy1]

That CMC run seems to also hint at two different low pressure centers, no? Kind of like GFS idea, just with the lows forming in different locations. What a mess!

[Comanche]

Maybe the ULL running with TD15, to the NE, will ultimately kill it, and the backside of the ULL vents anything that is in the wake?!?!?

[Vortex]

Can someone post the euro running..at work.

[Sanibel]

GFDL bounces it off a brick wall in southern Belize and lingers it as a weak remnant Low just inland in northern Honduras.

[Vortex]

the question of the hour is how far west before the turn with huge implications...

[Vortex]

12Z euro at H120 organizing S of Cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

Euro and GFS are very consistent with this south of western cuba down the road

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 231827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC THU SEP 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (AL152010) 20100923 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100923  1800   100924  0600   100924  1800   100925  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.9N  76.2W   14.5N  78.4W   15.3N  80.7W   16.0N  83.0W
BAMD    13.9N  76.2W   14.3N  78.7W   14.8N  81.3W   15.4N  83.7W
BAMM    13.9N  76.2W   14.4N  78.7W   15.0N  81.3W   15.6N  83.9W
LBAR    13.9N  76.2W   14.3N  79.1W   15.0N  82.2W   15.6N  85.4W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          46KTS          58KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          46KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100925  1800   100926  1800   100927  1800   100928  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  85.5W   18.7N  89.8W   19.4N  92.9W   18.3N  95.3W
BAMD    16.2N  85.8W   18.1N  88.9W   19.9N  90.8W   19.9N  92.8W
BAMM    16.5N  86.3W   18.3N  90.1W   19.1N  92.5W   17.4N  94.4W
LBAR    16.5N  88.3W   19.2N  92.6W   21.6N  94.0W   20.7N  94.5W
SHIP        69KTS          88KTS         100KTS         102KTS
DSHP        59KTS          78KTS          41KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.9N LONCUR =  76.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  73.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  12.8N LONM24 =  70.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Stormcenter]

Welcome and get use to it.

This system is NOT even a TD, yet most people on here think a doomsday event, catastrophic Hurricane is going to Florida!

Good grief people, take a deep breath.

What are so many catastrophic predictions being based on? Models?

Everyone knows models are dynamic, meaning change. It is WAAAAAY too far out to predict so much OMG, and it's over for X scenarios.

While it's interesting to read predictions of where the system will end up and the strength, there is no reason to promote such dire predictions, over and over again, in multiple posts, by the same posters again and again, but with different words. It's as if you are looking for sympathy, or congratulatory accolades....”You forecasted a cataclysmic event and you win the prize for doomsayer champion”, type of recognition? Sheesh...

On to another area. Everyone better watch the BOC, as things appear to be popping there and OMG….another super hurricane is heading somewhere! J/K

[Vortex]

H144 ECM


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

This system is NOT even a TD, yet most people on here think a doomsday event, catastrophic Hurricane is going to Florida!

Saint, I think you are off base here. I haven't heard anyone mention
that a horrible cat 4 or 5 hurricane is heading to Florida. Yes, there have
been some(including me) that have said that if a couple of the models runs verified,
that it would be horrible for the Tampa area, but that's about it.

What you are seeing is people who are concerned due to the general direction forecasted.
If it does hit Florida, we don't know if it will be a TD, TS, or weak or strong hurricane.
All is possible.... You are seeing lots of concern, which is justifiable.

[Vortex]

H168 ECM look out FL....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[Vortex]

H168 looks like a hurricane for FL again by the euro...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif