ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HurrMark]

A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY ISSUED AT 2100 UTC.

Well, I guess we have to wait some more for their train of thought...

[tolakram]

First plot:

[plasticup]

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

[latitude_20]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 231749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, I thought it suppose to have become trapped over CA? That map sure doesn't look like it's going to be trapped. This may end up being a very dangerous situation long term.

[ColinDelia]

Well, this one will be a game of *inches.

* 1 inch = 50 miles

[plasticup]

First plot:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL1510W5_NL+gif/174913W5_NL_sm.gif

That cone basically says "after day 3, I have no idea." The models have been flip-flopping the synoptics almost every other run - I don't envy the NHC today.

[hurricaneCW]

Interesting that they keep it a hurricane while it's partially inland over the Yucatan. I wasn't expecting that kind of track either, I'm curious to hear what they think will happen, I bet it will be a very detailed discussion.

[plasticup]

Interesting that they keep it a hurricane while it's partially inland over the Yucatan.

The Yucatan isn't too hard on hurricanes. It's so flat and moist that sometimes they don't even notice it.

The current forecast looks to be a disaster for Honduras, El Salvador, and Belize. The last thing they need is a slow-moving storm to dump days of torrential rainfall on top of the current floods.

[Vortex]

looks like NHC is buying in to the turn N/NE

[Weatherboy1]

Well even though we don't know their thinking, the NHC is clearly buying the "sharp right hook" idea or they wouldn't put those kinds of 5-day plot points out there. As someone else noted, a few tens of miles one way or the other could make the difference between a powerful storm and a dissipation over land. This is not an easy call for sure and I'm glad I'm just an amateur! LOL

[fci]

That's an incredibly sharp right turn!

[HurrMark]

I think their forecast clearly reflects the uncertainty...as someone alluded to above, 50 miles either way could mean the difference between a likely major hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea slowly moving northward to something "stuck on the Yuc" for several days...possibly nothing more than a TD by the time it finally emerges somewhere.

[DanKellFla]

OK, this one gives me the heebeejeebees. It is way too early, but this is starting to remind me of Wilma. But, it will take a few more days for it to start to get me really worried. When I see the NHC forecast plot with a circle at the end I just get the image of them sitting around a table and shrugging their shoulders. Hopefully, the Yucatan will disrupt it enough to make it a non-event in the gulf. (Yeah... fat chance....)

[dwsqos2]

That forecast is pretty much TVCN verbatim. Anyway, I saw 42 knots at 990 mb; this will likely be Matthew at 5.

[Vortex]

Euro out within the hour......

[SouthFloridawx]

This could get very interesting in the next couple of days.

[hiflyer]

That's an incredibly sharp right turn!

Yup...and the NHC has been doing these turns pretty good this season...ask Bermuda.

[SouthFloridawx]

[artist]

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 231802
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL952010
A. 23/17:31:00Z
B. 13 deg 51 min N
076 deg 11 min W
C. NA
D. 23 kt
E. 221 deg 50 nm
F. 231 deg 16 kt
G. 222 deg 59 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 24 C / 210 m
J. 25 C / 201 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 01FFA INVEST OB 15
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 17:53:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT