ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

About damn time! Feels like i've been tracking this forever lol

This was tracked since it was in Sudan by the predict team and known as PGI46L.

[KWT]

Well we've got a vortex message so thats pretty much good enough to suggest an upgrade is coming.

As for those that think it dies over CA, with the set-up occuring even if the circulation was to degenerate overland its going to get a decent amount of time back over the waters and then it all depends on the set-up aloft...

Heck anything could happen yet but somewhere down the line all the energy from this region is going to shift northwards towards the states.

[Macrocane]

I understand your excitement cycloneye this will be a very interesting system to watch, dangerous but interesting.

[ColinDelia]

12z SHIPS has 86 knots in 72 hours. LGEM has 97 knots. OFCI track.
Be interesting to see what NHC goes with.

[KWT]

What does need to be mentioned that I've not heard is the very serious flooding issues that maybe possible with this one in many parts of CA, remember that it was Mitch's extreme rain that killed thousands and hopefully this time the system can get overland so at least it will lose energy faster.

I'm fully expecting a 55-65kt type landfalling system, the W.CAribbean is very condusive, esp if it can just another half a degree of latitude compared to what the models expect.

[fci]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

Alguien parece estar contento!! lol

Someones seems to be happy!! lol

Yes,there is a very fine line between the enthusiastics of tropical weather and a possible disaster in CA if it goes that way.

The point recently made that we had been tracking this a long time explains the enthusiasm.
Sorry I am OT; but people need to stop confusing enthusiasm as a storm-follower with any wishes for destruction. People need to stop being Political Correctness Police. Nobody who has noted excitement over this probably reaching TD or TS status is wishing for anyone to be harmed by the storm!
Off my soapbox and back to the TD/TS.

[Aric Dunn]

It took a little while for them to find it mostly due to weak broad circ. but the circ has been likely bouncing around with every convective burst. No reason this should not be upgraded soon with a special advisory or at 5.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think that Luis, myself and others are happy this is becomming a depression mainly because
we will get more feedback on the track,and intensity. You really don't get much feedback when you
have invests...

[ColinDelia]

I'll take the over on that, KWT

[plasticup]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

About damn time! Feels like i've been tracking this forever lol

This was tracked since it was in Sudan by the predict team and known as PGI46L.

Is this really the same wave? I was under the impression that PGI46L was a good deal ahead of this guy.

[Aric Dunn]

Should be a TS
161030 1430N 07506W 9875 00194 0101 +216 +153 096037 038 035 008 00

[artist]

Just a report from Aruba, getting heavy heavy rains. Winds kicking up , 35 - 40 mph gusts.. W/NW. We just had three inches of rain on Palm Beach inside an hour.

thanks for you report and welcome! Stay safe!

[Aric Dunn]

Should be a TS
161030 1430N 07506W 9875 00194 0101 +216 +153 096037 038 035 008 00

another TS ob from sfmr

161300 1434N 07511W 9885 00184 0098 +230 +137 090032 034 036 005 00


just waiting on NHC

[Air Force Met]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

Finally!!!!!!!!

Guys...its been closed. As soon as recon reported that WSW wind over an hour ago...that was your sign this was a closed circulation. You don't need a vortex to confirm a closed circulation. A vortex just means its a little better defined. Closed just means its not a sharp trof or a CUSP.

[cycloneye]

just waiting on NHC

They may be busy now communicating with the different goverments that may be under watches and warnings before they issue the special advisory.

[Macrocane]

What does need to be mentioned that I've not heard is the very serious flooding issues that maybe possible with this one in many parts of CA, remember that it was Mitch's extreme rain that killed thousands and hopefully this time the system can get overland so at least it will lose energy faster.

I'm fully expecting a 55-65kt type landfalling system, the W.CAribbean is very condusive, esp if it can just another half a degree of latitude compared to what the models expect.

You're very right KWT, Central America has received record levels of rainfall this year, Guatemala and El Salvador reached the yearly average in August and the rainy season ends until late October so we are in real trouble.

[KWT]

Should be a TS
161030 1430N 07506W 9875 00194 0101 +216 +153 096037 038 035 008 00

Yeah that should probably mean we will have Matthew soon IMO...

Maybe that is why there is a delay right now?

Either way the big storm that the models have hitting Florida is NOT 95L looking at the models right now, they develop a new system near Jamiaca that comes up from the far south of the Caribbean...we will see how that pans out if at all...the models now suggest this region might even get into the BoC...

[ConvergenceZone]

Should be a TS
161030 1430N 07506W 9875 00194 0101 +216 +153 096037 038 035 008 00

Yeah that should probably mean we will have Matthew soon IMO...

Maybe that is why there is a delay right now?

Either way the big storm that the models have hitting Florida is NOT 95L looking at the models right now, they develop a new system near Jamiaca that comes up from the far south of the Caribbean...we will see how that pans out if at all...the models now suggest this region might even get into the BoC...

KWT, if that's the case, what does that model run do with 95L
Does it push it into Florida as well? dissipate it?

[KWT]

Nah CZ it just sort of stays inland as a large gyre set-ups and develops a new focus of attention over to the east...its somewhat like what you see more often in May/June with energy circulating from the EPAC into the Caribbean.

Either way the models have a system hitting Florida and the energy from this region is almost certainly going to be embedded in there somewhere but it doesn't appear to be the main feature anymore at least on the 12z GFS.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Now that we will have a clearly defined Depression, or possibly Matthew named by 5pm, the models will provide a much better picture of its future. Invests they don't seem to get a good track on. Once named, we often see a clearer future and less "weird" runs. Very interested to see what we get at 6pm, and especially the midnight runs.