ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

I find it interesting that Recon turned back to the south, even though winds were increasing as they progressed north. I know they are trying to determine the center location, but it seems that the higher winds are north of the circulation center.

[HURAKAN]

152130 1408N 07535W 9902 00168 0094 +249 +166 076032 034 032 000 00

looks like we may go straight to Matthew

Hurakan,

Can you please explain those numbers (I assume several are coordinates)? How do you know it may "go straight to Matthew"?

Thanks.

034 is at flight level, which is exactly 39 mph. 032 is at surface level, which is very close to TS intensity.

The plane is flying very low, 990.2 mb, or 490 ft from the surface, more or less.

more info: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

[ROCK]

almost like the center is out racing the convection....13.5 seems about right...

[Comanche]

The plane is flying very low, 990.2 mb, or 490 ft from the surface, more or less.

more info: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

Someone should report them to the FAA!

[RL3AO]

Not sure if this meets the definition of a "well defined circulation".

[btangy]

The circulation is closed. Of that there is no doubt.

Agree. There is no one down here in the PREDICT team which doesn't think this is not at least a depression now. I, myself, would be astounded if the NHC did not upgrade at 5 pm. Banding is increasing significantly now on the S side of the storm that AL95 has moved away from the downslope effects off the S American continent.

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest set of obs indicates center around 13.7N and 75.5.

[cycloneye]

The flying pattern so far.

[HURAKAN]

boom boom pow

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 231542
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL952010
A. 23/15:26:30Z
B. 13 deg 52 min N
075 deg 37 min W
C. NA
D. 32 kt
E. 009 deg 17 nm
F. 090 deg 36 kt
G. 025 deg 26 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 25 C / 193 m
J. 25 C / 196 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 01FFA INVEST OB 09
MAX FL WIND 36 KT NE QUAD 15:18:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 339 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[cycloneye]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

[HURAKAN]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

Alguien parece estar contento!! lol

Someones seems to be happy!! lol

[jlauderdal]

The flying pattern so far.

http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/992/95b.jpg

shouldnt this be in the recon thread?

[Crackbone]

Just a report from Aruba, getting heavy heavy rains. Winds kicking up , 35 - 40 mph gusts.. W/NW. We just had three inches of rain on Palm Beach inside an hour.

[Brent]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

Finally!!!!!!!!

[Crackbone]

Just a report from Aruba, getting heavy heavy rains. Winds kicking up , 35 - 40 mph gusts.. W/NW. We just had three inches of rain on Palm Beach inside an hour.

[MHurricanes]

152130 1408N 07535W 9902 00168 0094 +249 +166 076032 034 032 000 00

looks like we may go straight to Matthew

Hurakan,

Can you please explain those numbers (I assume several are coordinates)? How do you know it may "go straight to Matthew"?

Thanks.

034 is at flight level, which is exactly 39 mph. 032 is at surface level, which is very close to TS intensity.

The plane is flying very low, 990.2 mb, or 490 ft from the surface, more or less.

more info: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

Thanks!

[lester]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

About damn time! Feels like i've been tracking this forever lol

[cycloneye]

Yes!!! a closed circulation.Expect a special advisory shortly.

Alguien parece estar contento!! lol

Someones seems to be happy!! lol

Yes,there is a very fine line between the enthusiastics of tropical weather and a possible disaster in CA if it goes that way.

[btangy]

Latest set of obs indicates center around 13.7N and 75.5.

There are likely weak multiple centers rotating around a broader circulation. I see three distinct mesoscale circulations in the recon. data: 13.34N, 75.8W; 13.64N, 75.95W; 13.87N, 75.61W. The last pair is the strongest of the circulations, and I just see a vortex data message was just issued for the last point. From the visible satellite image and appearance of banding, that center fix appears to be reasonable.