ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

Aric Dunn · #481 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:32 am

Although may be enough for an upgrade considering the overall organization and likely hood of it strengthening

#482 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:37 am

plenty of west winds in the last HDOB. I would upgrade it to TD #15 at 11 am and wait for RECON to continue investigating in case it's Matthew. If so, issue an special advisory

ConvergenceZone · #483 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:43 am

I think the reason so many of us want to see this as a depression so quickly is because it will be interesting
to see what the NHC predicts as far as track goes. Will they go with it turning north through the channel? or will
they have it slamming into CA and dying. Very interesting hours ahead.

#484 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:43 am

a beauty of a system

vacanechaser · #485 Postby **vacanechaser** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:44 am

HURAKAN wrote:
a beauty of a system

and looking better with time

ConvergenceZone · #486 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:46 am

cwachal wrote:I think they will have it hitting CA and going through it with a hint of it dying in CA or going north

I think the only chance of this surviving is if it DOESN'T hit CA. If it plows into CA, I think it's done....

cyclonic chronic · #487 Postby **cyclonic chronic** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:47 am

every new frame has the banding curving more and more. really getting together in the last few hrs.

#488 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:48 am

Plenty of WSW winds found on last set.

ConvergenceZone · #489 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:49 am

I agree cwachal , if it heads north, we are in trouble....

#490 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:49 am

going back to the center

#491 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:49 am

How strong it can get before it hits CA would make a difference too. If this rapidly strengthens before a potential hit, it could go more poleward, and end up just skirting CA. Or, if it does go in, it can maintain itself better until it goes back out over water. if this stays barely a depression, then it could very well die. If it becomes a strong TS (or more) prior to going into CA (if it does), then it can likely survive its short stay over land and maintain its circulation.

Aric Dunn · #492 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:50 am

cycloneye wrote:Plenty of WSW winds found on last set.

yeah but it looks more like variable winds. the last set was veering quite a bit. I think its a broad closed wind field but very weak on the South and West side because of its forward motion.. pressure are not that low either 1008 is all i saw so far.

ConvergenceZone · #493 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:51 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:How strong it can get before it hits CA would make a difference too. If this rapidly strengthens before a potential hit, it could go more poleward, and end up just skirting CA. Or, if it does go in, it can maintain itself better until it goes back out over water. if this stays barely a depression, then it could very well die. If it becomes a strong TS (or more) prior to going into CA (if it does), then it can likely survive its short stay over land and maintain its circulation.

That's also a good point TreasureIslandFLGal . Strength may be a big player on where this goes down the road...

Aric Dunn · #494 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:52 am

HURAKAN wrote:[img]http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/2385/80911381.jpg[/img

going back to the center

I think they are looking for it.. lol

#495 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:54 am

The problem of TWC seems to be contagious. Knabb says that the Air Force plane will take off in a few hours to investigate the system. Really?

#496 Postby **supercane** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 9:59 am

That's because Wake Up With Al is a replay of the earlier 6 AM EDT show. Live Knabb is quite good.

Back on topic, agree with Aric that for now any center is quite broad given the current recon data.

tshizzle · #497 Postby **tshizzle** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:01 am

still think this smashes into CA and dissipates

#498 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:01 am

supercane wrote:That's because Wake Up With Al is a replay of the earlier 6 AM EDT show. Live Knabb is quite good.

Back on topic, agree with Aric that for now any center is quite broad given the current recon data.

Didn't know it was a replay. Agree and agree and on the rest

#499 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:08 am

Hopefully they will declare the depression with a good fixed center. That will give something solid for the models to work with and should better tune their output.

SouthFLTropics · #500 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Thu Sep 23, 2010 10:10 am

HURAKAN wrote:
supercane wrote:That's because Wake Up With Al is a replay of the earlier 6 AM EDT show. Live Knabb is quite good.

Back on topic, agree with Aric that for now any center is quite broad given the current recon data.

Didn't know it was a replay. Agree and agree and on the rest

If indeed it wasn't live then we will give Knabb a pass. If it was live then the moral of the story is that he should have visited Storm2k and gotten the right information before going on the air! :cheesy:

SFT

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